Economy 2030 Home is where the heat (pump) is The Government’s Heat and Buildings Strategy is a welcome step forward but lower-income households will need more support 21 October 2021 by Jonathan Marshall The Government’s recently released Heat and Buildings Strategy represents a much-needed step forward in plans to decarbonise Britain’s homes, a task likely to be one of the trickiest aspects of reaching net zero emissions. While much of the headlines have focused on heat pumps, the strategy contains welcome support for insulating social housing and the … Continued READ MORE
Intergenerational Centre An intergenerational audit for the UK 2021 21 October 2021 by Kathleen Henehan and Maja Gustafsson and Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Lalitha Try Our third Intergenerational Audit – supported by the Nuffield Foundation – provides an analysis of economic living standards across generations in Britain. In so doing, it analyses the latest data across four domains: Jobs, skills and pay Housing costs and security Taxes, benefits and household incomes Wealth and assets In each of these domains, we … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances The Uncertainty Principle Previewing the decisions to be taken at the Autumn Budget and Spending Review 2021 19 October 2021 by Jack Leslie and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson This report is our analysis of the economic and fiscal outlook ahead of the upcoming Autumn 2021 Budget – including what it will mean for the decisions the Chancellor will need to take at the Spending Review. The starting point for the Budget is that the economy is in a much stronger position than was … Continued READ MORE
Bills, bills, bills How rising energy costs will impact some more than others and what the Government can do about it 17 October 2021 by Jonathan Marshall Summary As winter approaches, millions of British households will be facing growing financial pressure. The combination of falling incomes, as the Covid-19 support schemes end, and rising inflation, driven by higher energy costs, means family budgets will be squeezed from all sides. The impacts of soaring global gas markets on the energy bills of millions … Continued READ MORE
Intergenerational Centre A return to boom and bust (in births) How birth cycles will affect public spending pressures over the coming decade 15 October 2021 by Maja Gustafsson and David Willetts The demographic impact of the Baby Boomer generation on public spending is frequently discussed as they move out of work and into retirement, but the most recent birth cycle – in which births hit a low point in 2002, a high point in 2012, and have been declining since – is having profound impacts on the education system. READ MORE
Economy 2030 Trading places Brexit and the path to longer-term improvements in living standards 14 October 2021 by Swati Dhingra and Josh De Lyon and Sophie Hale and James Smith This briefing note is the launch paper for the Brexit research theme of The Economy 2030 Inquiry, a joint project between the Resolution Foundation and the London School of Economics, funded by the Nuffield Foundation. It outlines how trade shapes, and is shaped by, wider changes to the economy, defining the nature of jobs for … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 The Carbon Crunch Turning targets into delivery 30 September 2021 by Jonathan Marshall This report is the launch paper for the net zero strand of the Economy 2030 Inquiry, a joint project between the Resolution Foundation and the London School of Economics. It outlines how net zero can be placed at the centre of the UK’s economic strategy and the importance of the next decade in getting back … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19 Job well done 18 months of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme 27 September 2021 by Daniel Tomlinson The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS) ends in just a few short days. Over the past 18 months, it has covered the wages of some 11.6 million people, and has provided for 2.3 billion days of furlough (both full and partial furlough) at a cost to the Government of almost £70 billion (in gross terms). … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Incomes· Living standards· Prices & consumption· Welfare The big squeeze Assessing the changes to family incomes over the next six months 26 September 2021 by Karl Handscomb This winter will see a major income squeeze – and it will be focused on low-to-middle income households. High inflation, especially higher energy bills, will strain many families’ finances. But these pressures will be compounded for over 4 million families when £20 a week is cut from Universal Credit in October 2021. Looking forward, April … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Work experiences Changes in the subjective experience of work 20 September 2021 by Krishan Shah and Daniel Tomlinson This paper is the first to be published as part of the Lived Experience theme of The Economy 2030 Inquiry. It explores the subjective experience of work to provide a rounded picture of the changing realities of employment as policy and the economy have evolved since the 1980s to the latter part of the 2010s. … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Nationally Insured? New taxes and new spending to address key Department for Health and Social Care priorities 8 September 2021 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Lindsay Judge and Krishan Shah and Daniel Tomlinson and Lalitha Try This note assesses the announcements made by the Government on the suspension of the Triple Lock, National Insurance rises, health and social care funding, and public spending totals for the rest of this Parliament made on 7 September 2021. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Social care· Public spending· Economy and public finances To govern is to choose The choices facing the Chancellor this autumn 6 September 2021 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett and Daniel Tomlinson The Chancellor has not had a quiet introduction to national policy making: overseeing 17 major fiscal announcements in as many months. This summer provided the first lull, driven by the success of vaccines and the understandable focus on Afghanistan. But the quiet phase is coming to an end. Alongside dealing with whatever new paths the … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market Labour Market Outlook Q3 2021 Prospects for unemployment after the Job Retention Scheme 5 September 2021 by Hannah Slaughter and Greg Thwaites As the economy has continued to reopen over the summer, the labour market has continued to surprise on the upside. After peaking at 5.2 per cent in Q4 2020, the headline unemployment rate has continued to fall, reaching 4.7 per cent in Q2 2021 – and timelier, though more volatile, single-month data has the unemployment … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Welfare· Intergenerational Centre Age-old or new-age? The changing incidence of social security benefits by age 27 August 2021 by Karl Handscomb and Lalitha Try At the start of the Covid-19 crisis, the number of families receiving income from the benefits system increased significantly, with 1.3 million more families receiving Universal Credit within three months – reversing a trend of a steady decline in families receiving benefits. In this briefing note, we examine the shift in the numbers of families … Continued READ MORE
Housing Housing Outlook Q3 2021 The effect of transaction tax holidays on house prices 21 August 2021 by Lindsay Judge and Felicia Odamtten and Krishan Shah Welcome to Housing Outlook Q3 2021. In this spotlight we turn our attention once again to the uncanny performance of house prices over the past year. In particular, we focus on the effect of transaction tax holidays across the UK. Introduced to stimulate the housing market in July last year, the Scottish and Welsh transaction … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Levelling up and down Britain How the labour market recovery varies across the country 12 August 2021 by Charlie McCurdy No part of the UK has been unaffected by the pandemic labour market shock, but both the initial hit and subsequent bounce-back have been uneven across places. Although employee numbers are back to pre-pandemic form in many parts of the country, in some regions (most notably, London) the jobs recovery has a long way to … Continued READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q3 2021 2 August 2021 by Jack Leslie and James Smith With the economic outlook improving, there has been much debate about when the Bank of England should start tightening policy. But the Bank also faces a key decision about how to tighten. This is important because a successful strategy for withdrawing support is key to delivering a strong recovery. So in this edition of our … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Football went to Rome, holidays came home The impact of ‘staycations’ on the UK’s labour market 29 July 2021 by Nye Cominetti As with last year, many holiday makers will be spending this summer in the UK. So in this Spotlight we look at the implications of another year of ‘staycations’ for the UK’s labour market. The tourism industry has been hit hard by the Covid-19 crisis For much of the past 18 months there have been … Continued READ MORE
Social care· Tax A caring tax rise? The impacts of a potential increase in National Insurance 21 July 2021 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett The Government intends to increase social care spending and is considering its options, having delayed a decision until the Autumn. They are 100 per cent right to do so. One option under consideration is raising National Insurance to make that possible. They are 100 per cent wrong to do so – because the far superior … Continued READ MORE
Ventures· Low pay· Pay Workertech and low pay An overview of research on low-paid workers in the UK 19 July 2021 by Nye Cominetti and Louise Marston and Lalitha Try This paper summarises Resolution Foundation research on low-paid workers and their experiences of work and the labour market. These are the workers that we are trying to reach with Resolution Ventures and the Workertech Partnership. READ MORE
Wealth & assets (Wealth) gap year The impact of the coronavirus crisis on UK household wealth 12 July 2021 by Jack Leslie and Krishan Shah This report is the second in a series of annual reports analysing the state of wealth in Britain. In it we provide the first complete picture of the impact of the Covid-19 crisis across the entire wealth distribution of the UK, and what it means for living standards. We find that the Covid-19 pandemic is … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Intergenerational Centre Out of the woods? Young people's mental health and labour market status as the economy reopens 5 July 2021 by Rukmen Sehmi Much has been said about the plight of young people during the Covid-19 crisis, both in terms of their labour market and mental health circumstances. This spotlight provides a timely update on how young people were faring at the end of May, shortly after the major relaxation of restrictions in mid-May. The proportion of economically-active … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market The beginning of the end 4 July 2021 by Daniel Tomlinson The furlough scheme is less than 90 days from closing down, with 1 July 2021 marking the beginning of its wind-down now that employers are contributing 10 per cent of furloughed employees’ wages. This short note looks at which sectors, people and places are currently more likely to be using the scheme and what this … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Incomes The Living Standards Audit 2021 1 July 2021 by Karl Handscomb and Kathleen Henehan and Lalitha Try This report is our fifth annual Living Standards Audit. This year we update our analysis of income before Covid-19; assess how incomes are faring during the crisis; and consider factors that will have an important bearing on household incomes in the future. READ MORE
Labour market Understanding the labour market: pandemic not pandemonium The labour market is normalising, not overheating 28 June 2021 by Torsten Bell and Kathleen Henehan and Krishan Shah and Hannah Slaughter and Greg Thwaites The mild euphoria phase of the economic commentary cycle has arrived somewhat earlier than after previous downturns. This is a big change from the excessive pessimism of late 2020. According to some, we have “eye popping growth” to look forward to as “Brexit Britain Booms”. For the labour market, this turn to optimism has seen … Continued READ MORE
