General Election 2024· Tax· Welfare· Political parties and elections Growing for gold? Analysing the tax and spend package of the 2024 Labour Manifesto 14 June 2024 by Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Emily Fry and Tara Goatley and Charlie McCurdy and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Lalitha Try In launching its manifesto, the Labour Party put the emphasis on efforts to boost growth. But more eye-catching were promises of some of the biggest changes to the labour market in a generation, with the aim of improving the quality of work. Proposals here included new employment rights, tougher labour-market enforcement, and an innovative approach … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Tax· Welfare· Political parties and elections The narrow path to NICs cuts Analysing the tax and spend package of the 2024 Conservative Manifesto 12 June 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Emma Beale and Molly Broome and Lindsay Judge and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Simon Pittaway and James Smith and Lalitha Try The launch of the Conservative manifesto is a big moment in this election campaign. The strategy here was clear: treble down on National Insurance (NI) rate cuts. The continued focus on NI is welcome, at least compared to the alternatives, and delivers significant cuts in tax for some, with the proposed 2p reduction delivering a … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Brexit & trade· Economic growth Life in the slow lane Assessing the UK’s economic and trade performance since 2010 9 June 2024 by Emily Fry and Simon Pittaway and Greg Thwaites This briefing note is the third output in a programme of outputs designed to put the upcoming UK general election in context, supported by the Nuffield Foundation. It looks at the performance of the UK economy and trade since 2010. The UK grew faster than other G7 economies in the first quarter of 2024 but, … Continued READ MORE
Prices & consumption Paying the price How the inflation surge has reshaped the British economy 17 May 2024 by Nye Cominetti and Ian Mulheirn and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and James Smith The UK has experienced its highest inflation for more than 40 years, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But next week will bring the welcome news that inflation has returned close to the 2 per cent target for the first time since July 2021. In this briefing note we take a step back and look at … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax Back for more? Putting the 2024 Spring Budget in context 7 March 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the Spring Budget 2024 in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken at the Budget will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term. READ MORE
Household debt· Wealth & assets In too deep? The impact of the cost of living crisis on household debt 29 February 2024 by Felicia Odamtten and Simon Pittaway Hard economic times and rising interest rates have brought a renewed focus on household debt in recent years, with concerns that more and more families could find themselves overwhelmed by the burden of debt. So this briefing note takes a closer look at the use of consumer debt (such as credit cards, personal loans and … Continued READ MORE
Pensions & savings· Wealth & assets Precautionary tales Tackling the problem of low saving among UK households 12 February 2024 by Molly Broome and Ian Mulheirn and Simon Pittaway Families in Britain are confronted with what can be termed a ‘triple savings challenge’. This encompasses a lack of accessible ‘rainy day’ savings to cushion small cashflow shocks, inadequate precautionary saving to see people through large and unexpected income shocks, and insufficient saving to provide an adequate income in retirement. These three savings challenges are … Continued READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q1 2024 5 January 2024 by Simon Pittaway 2023 was yet another year of economic stagnation for the UK. By the third quarter of the year, economic activity was only 0.2 per cent higher than at the end of 2022. But forecasts this time last year were far gloomier than the year of stagnation that came to pass. One reason why the UK … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances A pre-election Statement Putting the Autumn Statement 2023 in context 23 November 2023 by Camron Aref-Adib and Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the 2023 Autumn Statement in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Preparing the pitch Autumn Statement 2023 preview 6 November 2023 by Adam Corlett and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites In our Autumn Statement preview slidepack, we assess the economic outlook ahead of Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement on November 22nd, and explore the policy choices facing the Chancellor as inflation drives up tax revenues, and interest rates drive up the cost of government debt. We find that the Chancellor is in difficult terrain: although the … Continued READ MORE
A wealth of variety The variation in household wealth across Britain and what it means for policy 30 October 2023 by Molly Broome and Ian Mulheirn and Simon Pittaway In this briefing note we explore how wealth was distributed across the nations and regions of Britain on the eve of the pandemic, what determined those differences, and how wealth has evolved in different places since the recent rise in interest rates began. We also explore the policy implications, in particular how Council Tax as … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Built to last Towards a sustainable macroeconomic policy framework for the UK 19 October 2023 by Simon Pittaway and James Smith This paper, part of the Economy 2030 Inquiry, tackles the key question of how to futureproof the UK’s macroeconomic policy framework. Looking beyond the immediate policy challenge of high inflation, it focuses on whether the current framework – largely set during the calmer economic times of the 1990s – is still fit for purpose. Since … Continued READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic Policy Outlook: Q3 2023 5 October 2023 by Simon Pittaway and James Smith and Greg Thwaites In this edition of the MPO we focus on the scale and nature of the UK’s inflation challenge, looking at what we can learn from comparisons with other countries, and what that means for monetary policy. A key reason to worry about UK inflation is that it looks exceptional: it is the highest headline inflation … Continued READ MORE
Wealth & assets Peaked Interest? What higher interest rates mean for the size and distribution of Britain's household wealth 17 July 2023 by Molly Broome and Ian Mulheirn and Simon Pittaway Over the past four decades, the total value of wealth owned by UK households has been on a seemingly-relentless upward path: rising from around three-times GDP in the mid 1980s to almost eight-times. The key driver of this rise in wealth has been falling interest rates and the associated increase in asset prices. But the … Continued READ MORE
Housing The Mortgage Crunch 17 June 2023 by Simon Pittaway Recent signs that inflation is proving ‘stickier’ than hoped has raised the prospect of even more rate rises from Bank of England, and a deeper mortgage crunch for households. Higher than expected inflation and earnings in April has led financial-markets expectations of the peak to the current interest rate rise cycle to rise to nearly … Continued READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q2 2023 13 May 2023 by Simon Pittaway The Bank of England has raised interest rates 12 times in a row, and UK families are dealing with the largest rise in more than 30 years. With all signs suggesting that the Bank is at least nearing the end of this rate cycle, this edition of our Macroeconomic Policy Outlook focuses on the mortgage … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances We’re going on a growth Hunt Putting the 2023 Spring Budget in context 16 March 2023 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Karl Handscomb and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This report examines the economic backdrop to Budget 2023, and assesses whether the Chancellor has successfully delivered on his central objective of boosting growth through higher employment and business investment. READ MORE
