Five challenges· Economic growth The growth mindset Sizing up the Government’s growth agenda 19 September 2024 by Emily Fry and Greg Thwaites This report evaluates the UK government’s growth agenda, focusing on policies in infrastructure, housing, and trade. It highlights potential productivity gains and suggests broader reforms to meet ambitious growth targets, aiming to position the UK as the fastest-growing G7 economy. READ MORE
General Election 2024· Brexit & trade· Economic growth Life in the slow lane Assessing the UK’s economic and trade performance since 2010 9 June 2024 by Emily Fry and Simon Pittaway and Greg Thwaites This briefing note is the third output in a programme of outputs designed to put the upcoming UK general election in context, supported by the Nuffield Foundation. It looks at the performance of the UK economy and trade since 2010. The UK grew faster than other G7 economies in the first quarter of 2024 but, … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Inequality & poverty· Cities and regions· Housing· Economic growth Talking trade-offs Deliberations on a higher-productivity future in the Birmingham and Greater Manchester urban areas 30 November 2023 by Tania Burchardt and Tara Goatley and Lindsay Judge The cities of Manchester and Birmingham may have illustrious economic histories, but today both underperform the national average on a number of key economic measures. This is especially the case when it comes to productivity growth. Accelerating productivity in each city region would require radical reforms trade-offs to be made, but these changes cannot be … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Incomes· Living standards· Economic growth From safety net to springboard Designing an unemployment insurance scheme to protect living standards and boost economic dynamism 21 September 2023 by Mike Brewer and Louise Murphy Losing your job in Britain is a very risky business. Low levels of out-of-work benefits are rarely an adequate safety net for those who experience job loss, and workers in the UK who move out of work are at greater risk of experiencing a large income loss than those in most other OECD countries. Some … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay· Economic growth Wages are flatlining 22 March 2023 by Torsten Bell and Charlie McCurdy This Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets. Discussion of whether the central bank has one final rate rise in it before pausing have focused on whether the Bank’s hand will be stayed by the instability we are seeing playing out in the banking sector from Silicon Valley to Switzerland (in … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Productivity & industrial strategy· Economic growth Minding the (productivity and income) gaps Decomposing and understanding differences in productivity and income across countries 3 February 2023 by Krishan Shah and Greg Thwaites This week’s round of international economic forecasts (from the IMF, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England) has seen a renewed focus on the UK’s relative economic decline. But while gloomy forecasts about the coming years dominate headlines this expected weak economic growth comes on the back of 15 years of the UK … Continued READ MORE
Monetary policy· Economic growth· Macroeconomic policy Slower for longer The Bank of England tightens monetary policy again and warns that the outlook is bleak 4 August 2022 by Jack Leslie and James Smith The Bank of England today unveiled the biggest rise in interest rates since 1995 along with plans to bring down the stock of Quantitative Easing (QE) by £80 billion over the next year. But the real news in today’s announcements was the extent to which the central bank expects the cost of living crisis to … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Living standards· Economic growth Are you better off today? Real income growth under different governments since 1955 3 November 2021 by Adam Corlett In the 1980 presidential contest between the incumbent Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan, the latter asked voters “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”. Although far from the only question that voters do or should ask, it is a reasonable question. In the UK, since 1955, real household disposable income per … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Firms· Economic growth On firm ground? The impact of Covid-19 on firms and what policy makers should do in response 10 February 2021 by Nye Cominetti and Jack Leslie and James Smith The coronavirus crisis has had huge repercussions across the economy, and the corporate sector is no exception. This paper analyses how the crisis has affected firms’ finances, puts that in context compared to previous recessions, and assesses the ability of firms to contribute to the post-crisis recovery. This is important because firms’ investment and hiring … Continued READ MORE
Economic growth· Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q4 2020 28 December 2020 by James Smith and Torsten Bell and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and Nye Cominetti This is our regular Macro Policy Outlook, providing a policy-focused take on the economy. In this edition, we focus on the labour market, and the prospects for unemployment. This edition of the Macro Policy Outlook looks ahead to prospects for 2021. The early months of next year will pick up where 2020 left off, … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Economic growth Wake me up when November ends The economic outlook amid Lockdown II 3 November 2020 by Torsten Bell We’ve got less than 48 hours until a second national lockdown in England begins, and who knows how long until it comes to an end. Pubs, hotels, and hairdressers’ doors will close again across England – as they have been in Wales since 23 October – with the significant tightening of restrictions representing the final … Continued READ MORE
Productivity & industrial strategy· Pay· Economic growth Dead-end relationship? Exploring the link between productivity and workers’ living standards 16 January 2020 by Matthew Whittaker Summary The strength of the relationship between productivity growth and median pay growth – and what it means for the way in which the gains from economic growth are shared across the workforce – has been questioned in recent years, with evidence of a ‘decoupling’ of the two across a number of advanced economies. Such … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances· Economic growth· Macroeconomic policy The beginning of the end… …but not the end of the beginning Governor Carney’s valedictory speech discusses the future of the UK’s monetary policy remit – but this is just the start of an important debate 10 January 2020 by James Smith and Tony Yates The beginning of the end… After several false starts, the appointment of his successor (Andrew Bailey) means Mark Carney finally has a leaving date (15 March). He can now concentrate on the serious business of organising his leaving parties securing his legacy from his longer-than-expected time as Bank of England Governor. That all started yesterday … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Economic growth Rewriting the rules Assessing Conservative and Labour’s new fiscal frameworks 7 November 2019 by Torsten Bell and Matthew Whittaker and Cara Pacitti and Jack Leslie Fiscal rules are technical frameworks only ever focused on by a tiny fraction of the population. But they are important for government’s running of our public finances, and for having a sense of where we are heading as a country. READ MORE
Productivity & industrial strategy· Pay· Economic growth Follow the money Exploring the link between UK growth and workers’ pay packets 30 August 2019 by Matthew Whittaker This briefing note unpicks the relationship between productivity and pay growth, looking at a variety of factors that influence pay growth for different groups of employees in the UK – from trends in the labour share to terms of trade movements, and from the role of employer pension contributions to the impact of changes in working patterns. READ MORE
Firms· Productivity & industrial strategy· Labour market· Economic growth Sorry, we’re closed: Understanding the impact of retail’s decline on people and places 27 February 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson and Laura Gardiner Headlines about shop closures might give the impression that retail’s decline is a recent phenomenon, but retail’s share of employment has been falling for 15 years. This report digs behind this long-run trend, driven by changes in what we spend and how we spend it, and focuses in on what really matters when it comes to economic change: people and places. READ MORE
Firms· Productivity & industrial strategy· Economic growth Is everybody concentrating? Recent trends in product and labour market concentration in the UK 26 July 2018 by Daniel Tomlinson and Torsten Bell This paper analyses trends in product market and labour market concentration in the UK, to see whether (as is the case in the US) larger firms are accounting for a larger share of economic activity today than in years gone by. READ MORE
Productivity & industrial strategy· Economic growth Don’t believe the hype: work, robots, history 14 December 2017 by Michael Weatherburn Technology, and resistance to it, in major economic sectors like warehousing has been around longer than we think. We’ve been talking about the past, present and future of our workplaces well beyond recent memory. Don’t believe the hype: our historical memories are extremely fickle. READ MORE
Brexit & trade· Economy and public finances· Economic growth Changing Lanes: The impact of different post-Brexit trading policies on the cost of living 17 October 2017 by Stephen Clarke and Ilona Serwicka and L. Alan Winters The issue of trade has returned to the frontline of British policy making and politics for the first time in 40 years, but little has been said about what the impact of changes in the UK’s trade regime could be on living standards. This paper aims to fill that gap by looking at what impact two “no deal” Brexit scenarios could have on prices and living standards. READ MORE
Firms· Living standards· Productivity & industrial strategy· Cities and regions· Economic growth A rising tide lifts all boats? Advanced industries and their impact upon living standards 10 July 2017 by Stephen Clarke and Neil Lee Policy makers in Westminster, devolved administrations, cities and local authorities struggle with many of the same challenges. Encouraging economic growth is vital but so too is ensuring the prosperity created is evenly shared. After a long absence, industrial strategy is back on the agenda as a way of providing this inclusive growth. The cornerstone of … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Productivity & industrial strategy· Cities and regions· Economic growth City living: devolution and the living standards challenge 20 October 2016 by Stephen Clarke Significant devolution is planned for Britain’s major city regions. The powers that may soon be devolved are, in terms of recent history if not international comparisons, unprecedented in scope. In May 2017 some cities will elect a region-wide Mayor which will provide fresh political impetus. Furthermore, Theresa May’s new government has signalled her support for … Continued READ MORE
Brexit & trade· Economic growth· Political parties and elections The Importance of Place: explaining the characteristics underpinning the Brexit vote across different parts of the UK 15 July 2016 by Stephen Clarke and Matthew Whittaker Post-referendum analysis has highlighted the importance of demographic, economic and cultural factors on individuals’ vote. In this note, we consider the importance of place; highlighting the extent to which those same factors matter across 378 of Britain’s 380 local authorities. We test the strength of the relationship between these different factors and the vote while holding … Continued READ MORE
Economic growth· Macroeconomic policy Renewed Interest: The role of monetary policy in crisis and beyond 28 January 2016 by Matthew Whittaker Interest rates are at an all-time low. The Bank of England’s base rate is about to enter its eighth year at 0.5 per cent – the lowest level in its history and its longest period of non-movement since the Second World War. Yet still UK inflation remains well below its 2 per cent target, bumping … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Labour market· Pay· Scotland· Economic growth State of working Scotland: living standards, jobs and pay 20 January 2016 by Conor D’Arcy and Gavin Kelly With only months to go until May’s Scottish Parliament elections, this report provides an analysis of the state of working Scotland. In particular, we focus on how Scotland’s labour market performed in the run-up to the economic downturn and in the recovery. READ MORE
Economic growth A recovery for all? The evolution of the relationship between economic growth and pay before, during and since the financial crisis 14 September 2015 by Matthew Whittaker In this note, we use the latest wage and National Accounts data to consider how the ‘wedge’ between productivity growth and median pay growth that arose prior to the financial crisis in the UK – and which appears to have become a feature across a range of advanced economies in recent decades – has developed … Continued READ MORE
