General Election 2024· Labour market Job done? Assessing the labour market since 2010 and the challenges for the next government 25 June 2024 by Nye Cominetti and Hannah Slaughter The record on the labour market since 2010 is mixed – strong employment growth (albeit a partial reversal post-pandemic), alongside a 14-year real wage stagnation. On their plans for the future, the Conservative party would stick with the status quo, while Labour propose the biggest overhaul of labour market policy in a generation, including a higher minimum wage and a ‘day one’ right to protection from unfair dismissal. READ MORE
General Election 2024· Tax· Welfare· Political parties and elections Growing for gold? Analysing the tax and spend package of the 2024 Labour Manifesto 14 June 2024 by Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Emily Fry and Tara Goatley and Charlie McCurdy and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Lalitha Try In launching its manifesto, the Labour Party put the emphasis on efforts to boost growth. But more eye-catching were promises of some of the biggest changes to the labour market in a generation, with the aim of improving the quality of work. Proposals here included new employment rights, tougher labour-market enforcement, and an innovative approach … Continued READ MORE
Prices & consumption Paying the price How the inflation surge has reshaped the British economy 17 May 2024 by Nye Cominetti and Ian Mulheirn and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and James Smith The UK has experienced its highest inflation for more than 40 years, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But next week will bring the welcome news that inflation has returned close to the 2 per cent target for the first time since July 2021. In this briefing note we take a step back and look at … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market Labour Market Outlook Q2 2024 Happy 25th birthday to the minimum wage 27 March 2024 by Nye Cominetti and Hannah Slaughter This year’s minimum wage uprating is large: roughly 1.6 million workers stand to benefit directly on 1 April when the adult rate rises to £11.44 – giving a cash increase of 9.8 per cent and a real-terms increase of 7.8 per cent. These are the third largest annual increases in the minimum wage’s history. 1 … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax Back for more? Putting the 2024 Spring Budget in context 7 March 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the Spring Budget 2024 in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken at the Budget will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances A pre-election Statement Putting the Autumn Statement 2023 in context 23 November 2023 by Camron Aref-Adib and Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the 2023 Autumn Statement in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term. READ MORE
Labour market· Pay· Living Wage Giving with one hand … Exploring the impact of minimum wage uprating in 2024 on living standards 4 November 2023 by Nye Cominetti At this year’s Conservative Party Conference, the Chancellor announced that the minimum wage would rise to at least £11 next year, up from its current rate of £10.42. But he may have under-promised. Using the standard uprating methodology, we estimate that the new adult-rate minimum wage could be as high as £11.46 in April 2024 … Continued READ MORE
Living Wage Calculating the Real Living Wage for London and the rest of the UK: 2023 24 October 2023 by Nye Cominetti and Louise Murphy This report sets out the method through which the Living Wage (LW) rates – a voluntary hourly pay rate that is based on what families need to get by – in London and the rest of the UK are calculated by the Resolution Foundation, and overseen by the Living Wage Commission on behalf of the … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 A tale of two cities (part 2) A plausible strategy for productivity growth in Greater Manchester and beyond 19 September 2023 by Paul Brandily and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Lindsay Judge and Felicia Odamtten and Henry G. Overman and Cara Pacitti and Krishan Shah and Lalitha Try Few would disagree that the UK has a significant productivity problem, or fail to recognise that the poor performance of the nation’s largest cities outside the capital contribute to that situation. As the Economy 2030 Inquiry has made clear, the productivity of our largest cities lags the UK average, bucking the global trend for bigger … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 A tale of two cities (part 1) A plausible strategy for productivity growth in Birmingham and beyond 14 September 2023 by Paul Brandily and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Lindsay Judge and Felicia Odamtten and Henry G. Overman and Cara Pacitti and Krishan Shah and Lalitha Try After the success of the Commonwealth games in 2022, Birmingham is now in the news for the wrong reasons. Financial difficulties facing the City Council culminated in a formal declaration on 5 September 2023 that Britain’s largest local authority was, in effect, bankrupt. But the understandable short-term focus on the council’s financial woes must not … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market Labour Market Outlook Q2 2023 14 August 2023 by Nye Cominetti and Nadim Hamdan and Hannah Slaughter The UK has seen more strikes in the past year than in any since the 1980s. These strikes have been concentrated in the public and transport sectors, where unionisation rates are highest. The public and public-funded sectors have seen a bigger pay hit than the private sector overall, but there are exceptions – highly unionised … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Low pay· Labour market Low Pay Britain 2023 Improving low-paid work through higher minimum standards 19 April 2023 by Nye Cominetti and Charlie McCurdy and Greg Thwaites and Rui Costa After a decade and a half of relative economic decline, Britain needs a new economic strategy. And good work must be at its heart – an explicit goal, not a hoped-for by-product of growth. This is a necessary precondition for a strategy that offers a credible promise of shared prosperity in the years ahead, strengthening … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances We’re going on a growth Hunt Putting the 2023 Spring Budget in context 16 March 2023 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Karl Handscomb and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This report examines the economic backdrop to Budget 2023, and assesses whether the Chancellor has successfully delivered on his central objective of boosting growth through higher employment and business investment. READ MORE
Labour market enforcement· Social care· Low pay· Labour market Who cares? The experience of social care workers, and the enforcement of employment rights in the sector 26 January 2023 by Nye Cominetti The social care sector, as well as playing a vital role for many people and for our society, is an important employer, with 1.7 million social care jobs across the UK in 2022. Jobs in social care have many positive aspects of working in the sector, including the ability to form deep personal connections with … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Skills Train in Vain? Skills, tasks, and training in the UK labour market 5 December 2022 by Nye Cominetti and Rui Costa and Andrew Eyles and Kathleen Henehan and Sandra McNally Human capital and skills are important for improving the UK’s labour market and economic performance. This note assesses how the skills needed in the UK labour market have changed over past decades, and how well placed our system of training – and particularly on-the-job training – is to help us adapt to these changes. Some … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Help today, squeeze tomorrow Putting the 2022 Autumn Statement in context 18 November 2022 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This report presents Resolution Foundation’s analysis of the 2022 Autumn Statement. In the face of grim economic and fiscal forecasts, Jeremy Hunt announced energy support today but tougher times tomorrow, with stealth tax rises for the middle and top of the income distribution followed by spending cuts after the next election. READ MORE
Intergenerational Centre An intergenerational audit for the UK 2022 14 November 2022 by Molly Broome and Sophie Hale and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb and Louise Murphy and Lalitha Try Our fourth Intergenerational Audit – part of the ESRC-funded Connecting Generations partnership – provides an analysis of economic living standards across generations in Britain. In so doing, it analyses the latest data across four domains: Household incomes and costs; Jobs, skills and pay; Wealth and assets; and Housing costs and security. In each of these domains, … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Blowing the budget Assessing the implications of the September 2022 fiscal statement 24 September 2022 by Torsten Bell and Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Louise Murphy and Krishan Shah and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try The Chancellor decided to blow the budget in his first fiscal statement, bringing forward a £45 billion package of tax cuts, the biggest for 50 years. In this briefing note, we show that today’s Government is no longer fiscally conservative nor courting the Red Wall. Instead, debt is on course to rise in each and every year of the forecast period, and the focus has shifted to the South of England, where the beneficiaries of these tax cuts are more likely to be living. READ MORE
Living Wage Calculating the Real Living Wage for London and the rest of the UK: 2022 22 September 2022 by Nye Cominetti and Louise Murphy This report sets out the method through which the Living Wage (LW) rates – a voluntary hourly pay rate that is based on what families need to get by – in London and the rest of the UK are calculated by the Resolution Foundation, and overseen by the Living Wage Commission on behalf of the … Continued READ MORE
Pensions & savings Living pensions An assessment of whether workers’ pension saving meets a ‘living pension’ benchmark 28 July 2022 by Nye Cominetti and Felicia Odamtten Auto-enrolment has been successful in increasing pension saving participation among workers, especially those on lower incomes. However, given the improvements in take-up, the next pressing concern is whether workers are saving enough to deliver an adequate standard of living in retirement. A ‘Living pension’, parallel to the ‘Living wage’ could help us find the answer. … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Labour market enforcement Low Pay Britain 2022 Low pay and insecurity in the UK labour market 25 May 2022 by Nye Cominetti and Rui Costa and Felicia Odamtten This edition of Low Pay Britain is our twelfth annual report taking stock of the state of low pay. Recent editions have focused on the short-term impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on low paid workers. Those have largely receded, and so here we take a longer view, and look at how low paid work has … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Pay Labour Market Outlook Q1 2022 How should we interpret strong nominal earnings growth? 9 April 2022 by Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Hannah Slaughter and Greg Thwaites In the first months of 2022, the labour market continued to tighten, with no sign of weakening in the aftermath of the JRS. Unemployment has fallen further, and stood at an almost-record low of 3.9 per cent in the three months to January 2022 – and although the Bank of England is concerned about unemployment … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Changing jobs? Change in the UK labour market and the role of worker mobility 6 January 2022 by Nye Cominetti and Rui Costa and Andrew Eyles and Tzvetan Moev and Guglielmo Ventura This report is about the nature and speed of change in the UK’s labour market, about how past periods of rapid change have happened, and about workers’ experiences as they have lived through these changes. It is written with an eye to the upheaval we expect to see in the coming decade as the effects … Continued READ MORE
Pay· Living Wage Calculating the Real Living Wage for London and the rest of the UK: 2021 15 November 2021 by Nye Cominetti This report sets out the method through which the Living Wage rates in London and the rest of the UK are calculated by the Resolution Foundation and overseen by the Living Wage Commission on behalf of the Living Wage Foundation. The rate for the UK Living Wage for 2020-21 is £9.90. The rate for the … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances The Boris Budget Resolution Foundation analysis of Autumn Budget and Spending Review 2021 28 October 2021 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Kathleen Henehan and Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson and Lalitha Try This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the October 2021 Budget and Spending Review. The Chancellor has unveiled a career-defining third Budget against a backdrop of heightened uncertainty and risks. His aim: to draw a line under Covid-19, boost spending in the key priority areas yet also bear down on the … Continued READ MORE
