Living standards Public pivot How a growing state will shape the living standards outlook for 2025 7 January 2025 by Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett and Louise Murphy and Simon Pittaway and Imogen Stone and Greg Thwaites 2025 will be a year with a bigger role for the state. Jeremy Hunt cut taxes in his last two Budgets and planned to pay for them with real-terms cuts to public spending in many areas. Rachel Reeves’s October Budget reversed these plans, pivoting to increasing spending on public services as a share of the … Continued READ MORE
Aiming high? Assessing the Government’s new targets for its growth mission 5 December 2024 by Adam Corlett and Simon Pittaway and James Smith In government, priorities matter. And today the Government underscored its key priorities, announcing six ‘milestones’ for its six missions. When it comes to its mission for growth, there has been a welcome shift in focus towards living standards. Alongside growing GDP per capita, the Government has also committed to raising real household disposable income (RHDI) per person over the course of this Parliament. The inclusion of this measure of income should focus minds in Whitehall on ensuring growth that delivers higher income and, ultimately, better living standards for families. READ MORE
Labour market Get Britain’s Stats Working Exploring alternatives to Labour Force Survey estimates 20 November 2024 by Adam Corlett Given continued concern about the accuracy of many of the UK’s existing labour market statistics, this report presents an alternative assessment of what may have happened to employment, unemployment and inactivity rates since 2019. READ MORE
Unsung Britain· Living standards· Demographics Unsung Britain The changing economic circumstances of the poorer half of Britain 13 November 2024 by Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Lalitha Try This report marks the launch of Unsung Britain, a one-year research programme designed to understand the economic circumstances of today’s low-to-middle income families and how these have changed in recent decades, with support from JPMorganChase. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax More, more, more Putting the Autumn Budget 2024 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context 31 October 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This has been the most anticipated Budget of modern times. It had to wrestle with profound – and sometimes conflicting – challenges: fixing the strained public services; repairing failing public services; and breaking with the UK’s dire record on public investment. And all of this had to be squared with pre-election pledges not to raise … Continued READ MORE
Net zero Getting the green light The path to a fair transition for the transport sector 17 October 2024 by Adam Corlett and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall Transport is now the largest component of the UK’s carbon footprint, and rapid decarbonisation will significantly change how people travel. This report examines squares up to the three main modes of travel – cars, public transport, and aviation – and assesses how emissions can be reduced while ensuring that both the costs and benefits of cheaper travel are shared fairly. READ MORE
Tax Revenue and reform What tax changes could – and should – we see in Autumn Budget 2024? 10 September 2024 by Adam Corlett Ahead of Autumn Budget 2024, this report explores some of the tax policy choices that may face the new Chancellor, and sets out what reforms could best raise revenue while also improving the design of the tax system. There are many good reasons to expect a range of tax policy changes at this Budget. It … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Incomes The Living Standards Outlook 2024 29 August 2024 by Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett This is our sixth annual Living Standards Outlook. It provides an assessment of incomes, poverty and inequality as things stand in 2024-25, and projections up to 2029-30 using economic forecasts and policy assumptions inherited by the new Government. It also explores how three scenarios, based on an optimistic outcome for earnings growth and two illustrative … Continued READ MORE
Measuring up? Exploring data discrepancies in the Labour Force Survey 13 August 2024 by Adam Corlett and Hannah Slaughter Since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, significant issues have emerged with the UK’s official labour market data. The Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) main data source on the labour market, the Labour Force Survey (LFS), estimates that there are over a million fewer workers than the trends seen in other data sources suggest. And … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Living standards Hard times Assessing household incomes since 2010 28 June 2024 by Adam Corlett and Lalitha Try This briefing note is part of the Resolution Foundation’s ‘Need to Know Election 2024’ series and examines how income growth, poverty and inequality have changed over the last Parliament and since 2010. At the General Election, living standards growth should be on the agenda for any party wishing to form the next government. This is … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Tax Hiding in plain sight The Government’s record on taxes and the challenges ahead 8 June 2024 by Adam Corlett In this briefing note – part of a programme of outputs supported by the Nuffield Foundation to put the upcoming UK general election in context – we consider some of the key tax questions for the 2024 general election and beyond. Has the government raised people’s taxes or lowered them? How different are the parties’ … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances· Tax· Welfare Happy new tax year Six big changes to pay, tax and benefit policy – and how they affect households across Britain 28 March 2024 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett and Alex Clegg The beginning of April brings a new tax year, and a flurry of tax, benefit and pay policy changes coming into effect. Benefit levels are finally returning to their pre-pandemic levels after a difficult few years. Threshold freezes will continue to pull more people into paying tax, but the tax they pay on every extra … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Housing Housing Outlook Q1 2024 25 March 2024 by Lindsay Judge and Adam Corlett Welcome to our first Housing Outlook in what looks set to be an election year, and one where housing could well be a prominent issue. This quarter, we consider whether the UK’s housing woes are shared by other developed economies, or if the issues of housing affordability and quality we highlight so frequently are distinctly … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax Back for more? Putting the 2024 Spring Budget in context 7 March 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the Spring Budget 2024 in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken at the Budget will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances The Election Budget Spring Budget 2024 preview 21 February 2024 by Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites In this slide pack we preview the upcoming Budget, assessing the economic and fiscal outlook ahead of what will be a key pre-election economic-policy event. We focus on the scope for cutting taxes, and the implications of different policy choices, putting the Chancellor’s upcoming decisions in a broader context. We find that, despite near-term bad … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances A pre-election Statement Putting the Autumn Statement 2023 in context 23 November 2023 by Camron Aref-Adib and Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the 2023 Autumn Statement in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term. READ MORE
Incomes· Labour market· Wealth & assets· Housing· Intergenerational Centre An intergenerational audit for the UK 2023 13 November 2023 by Molly Broome and Adam Corlett and Sophie Hale and Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti Five years ago, our Intergenerational Commission set out the numerous threats to the UK’s promise of intergenerational progress. More recently, the spotlight has once again fallen on this issue, but this time in the US, where the latest data has started to suggest that living standards for the millennials are catching up with, and on … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Preparing the pitch Autumn Statement 2023 preview 6 November 2023 by Adam Corlett and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites In our Autumn Statement preview slidepack, we assess the economic outlook ahead of Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement on November 22nd, and explore the policy choices facing the Chancellor as inflation drives up tax revenues, and interest rates drive up the cost of government debt. We find that the Chancellor is in difficult terrain: although the … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 A tale of two cities (part 2) A plausible strategy for productivity growth in Greater Manchester and beyond 19 September 2023 by Paul Brandily and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Lindsay Judge and Felicia Odamtten and Henry G. Overman and Cara Pacitti and Krishan Shah and Lalitha Try Few would disagree that the UK has a significant productivity problem, or fail to recognise that the poor performance of the nation’s largest cities outside the capital contribute to that situation. As the Economy 2030 Inquiry has made clear, the productivity of our largest cities lags the UK average, bucking the global trend for bigger … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty· Welfare Half time The UK’s commitment to halve poverty by 2030 18 September 2023 by Adam Corlett On 18-19 September, representatives from around the world – including the Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden and the Foreign Secretary James Cleverly – will meet for a UN summit on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These goals are not just about development in poorer countries: the targets and the discussions around this summit have relevance … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 A tale of two cities (part 1) A plausible strategy for productivity growth in Birmingham and beyond 14 September 2023 by Paul Brandily and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Lindsay Judge and Felicia Odamtten and Henry G. Overman and Cara Pacitti and Krishan Shah and Lalitha Try After the success of the Commonwealth games in 2022, Birmingham is now in the news for the wrong reasons. Financial difficulties facing the City Council culminated in a formal declaration on 5 September 2023 that Britain’s largest local authority was, in effect, bankrupt. But the understandable short-term focus on the council’s financial woes must not … Continued READ MORE
Living standards The Living Standards Outlook – Summer 2023 Update 6 September 2023 by Adam Corlett Household incomes are always a crucial perspective on how living standards are changing, particularly during economic crises. And in democracies, changing living standards also matter for politics, particularly ahead of elections. As Ronald Reagan famously put it in 1980, the answer to “are you better off today than you were four years ago?” is often … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Tax Tax planning How to match higher taxes with better taxes 28 June 2023 by Molly Broome and Adam Corlett and Greg Thwaites The UK’s tax take is rising, and is likely to stay high, but the system is not improving. The UK needs a tax strategy to support its economic strategy, using the tax system to boost shared growth. This paper, part of the Economy 2030 Inquiry, describes what a good tax strategy would look like and … Continued READ MORE
Net zero· Economy 2030 Where the rubber hits the road Reforming vehicle taxes 1 June 2023 by Jonathan Marshall and Adam Corlett This briefing note examines the future of motoring taxes, which need extensive reform given the necessary and welcome rise of electric vehicles. We detail a suite of policies that will protect revenues and lower income households, reduce congestion, and facilitate the transition to zero-carbon motoring. READ MORE
Tax· Welfare Happy new tax year, 2023! Tax and benefit changes coming in 2023-24 1 April 2023 by Adam Corlett 2022-23 featured an array of tax and benefit changes, including the introduction then cancellation of a major tax rate rise, and three big cash payment schemes to help cover living costs. Tax and benefit policy in the financial year 2023-24 may prove to be less fickle, and in this spotlight we set out what is … Continued READ MORE
