Intergenerational Centre An intergenerational audit for the UK 2024 21 November 2024 by Molly Broome and Sophie Hale and Hannah Slaughter The sixth Intergenerational Audit for the UK, produced as part of the ESRC-funded Connecting Generations research programme, evaluates the economic importance of intergenerational exchanges including housing assistance, childcare and other unpaid care, and financial aid such as gifts and inheritances. READ MORE
Unsung Britain· Living standards· Demographics Unsung Britain The changing economic circumstances of the poorer half of Britain 13 November 2024 by Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Lalitha Try This report marks the launch of Unsung Britain, a one-year research programme designed to understand the economic circumstances of today’s low-to-middle income families and how these have changed in recent decades, with support from JPMorganChase. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax More, more, more Putting the Autumn Budget 2024 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context 31 October 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This has been the most anticipated Budget of modern times. It had to wrestle with profound – and sometimes conflicting – challenges: fixing the strained public services; repairing failing public services; and breaking with the UK’s dire record on public investment. And all of this had to be squared with pre-election pledges not to raise … Continued READ MORE
Measuring up? Exploring data discrepancies in the Labour Force Survey 13 August 2024 by Adam Corlett and Hannah Slaughter Since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, significant issues have emerged with the UK’s official labour market data. The Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) main data source on the labour market, the Labour Force Survey (LFS), estimates that there are over a million fewer workers than the trends seen in other data sources suggest. And … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Labour market Job done? Assessing the labour market since 2010 and the challenges for the next government 25 June 2024 by Nye Cominetti and Hannah Slaughter The record on the labour market since 2010 is mixed – strong employment growth (albeit a partial reversal post-pandemic), alongside a 14-year real wage stagnation. On their plans for the future, the Conservative party would stick with the status quo, while Labour propose the biggest overhaul of labour market policy in a generation, including a higher minimum wage and a ‘day one’ right to protection from unfair dismissal. READ MORE
General Election 2024· Tax· Welfare· Political parties and elections Growing for gold? Analysing the tax and spend package of the 2024 Labour Manifesto 14 June 2024 by Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Emily Fry and Tara Goatley and Charlie McCurdy and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Lalitha Try In launching its manifesto, the Labour Party put the emphasis on efforts to boost growth. But more eye-catching were promises of some of the biggest changes to the labour market in a generation, with the aim of improving the quality of work. Proposals here included new employment rights, tougher labour-market enforcement, and an innovative approach … Continued READ MORE
Firms· Labour market Firm foundations Understanding why employers use flexible contracts 25 April 2024 by Hannah Slaughter At the end of 2023, more than one-in-eight (13 per cent) employees in UK were working on some form of flexible contract that can be viewed as ‘precarious’, accounting for 3.8 million workers nationwide. From variable-hours and zero-hours contracts to temporary work such as casual, seasonal or short-term employment, flexible contracts often entail considerable uncertainty … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market Labour Market Outlook Q2 2024 Happy 25th birthday to the minimum wage 27 March 2024 by Nye Cominetti and Hannah Slaughter This year’s minimum wage uprating is large: roughly 1.6 million workers stand to benefit directly on 1 April when the adult rate rises to £11.44 – giving a cash increase of 9.8 per cent and a real-terms increase of 7.8 per cent. These are the third largest annual increases in the minimum wage’s history. 1 … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax Back for more? Putting the 2024 Spring Budget in context 7 March 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the Spring Budget 2024 in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken at the Budget will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances The Election Budget Spring Budget 2024 preview 21 February 2024 by Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites In this slide pack we preview the upcoming Budget, assessing the economic and fiscal outlook ahead of what will be a key pre-election economic-policy event. We focus on the scope for cutting taxes, and the implications of different policy choices, putting the Chancellor’s upcoming decisions in a broader context. We find that, despite near-term bad … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Prices & consumption· Pay· Wellbeing and mental health· Housing Pressure on pay, prices and properties How families were faring in October 2023 14 December 2023 by Mike Brewer and Felicia Odamtten and Hannah Slaughter and Hannah Slocombe and James Smith Two years into the cost of living crisis, inflation has finally turned a corner. The headline rate of CPI inflation has fallen from its October 2022 peak of 11.1 per cent to 4.6 per cent in October 2023, and the Prime Minister has been able to say that his target of halving inflation in 2023 … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Pay Labour Market Outlook Q4 2023 What’s happening to pay growth? 12 December 2023 by Hannah Slaughter Over the course of 2023, the labour market has been gradually cooling on most measures. Even ignoring data from the Labour Force Survey that has recently been called into question, vacancies have been falling for 16 consecutive months and growth in payrolled employment has slowed. But nominal wage growth has remained resilient – even, since … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances A pre-election Statement Putting the Autumn Statement 2023 in context 23 November 2023 by Camron Aref-Adib and Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the 2023 Autumn Statement in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Preparing the pitch Autumn Statement 2023 preview 6 November 2023 by Adam Corlett and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites In our Autumn Statement preview slidepack, we assess the economic outlook ahead of Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement on November 22nd, and explore the policy choices facing the Chancellor as inflation drives up tax revenues, and interest rates drive up the cost of government debt. We find that the Chancellor is in difficult terrain: although the … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Putting good work on the table Reforming labour market institutions to improve pay and conditions 4 September 2023 by Charlie McCurdy and Hannah Slaughter and Gavin Kelly The UK needs stronger labour market institutions Decent work is a pre-requisite for delivering shared prosperity and improving the lives of the country’s 34-million-strong workforce. In this context, the UK labour market has a number of strengths – from high employment to a national minimum wage that is now among the highest in the world. … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market Labour Market Outlook Q2 2023 14 August 2023 by Nye Cominetti and Nadim Hamdan and Hannah Slaughter The UK has seen more strikes in the past year than in any since the 1980s. These strikes have been concentrated in the public and transport sectors, where unionisation rates are highest. The public and public-funded sectors have seen a bigger pay hit than the private sector overall, but there are exceptions – highly unionised … Continued READ MORE
Labour market enforcement· Labour market Enforce for good Effectively enforcing labour market rights in the 2020s and beyond 25 April 2023 by Lindsay Judge and Hannah Slaughter This report concludes a four-year work programme at the Resolution Foundation supported by Unbound Philanthropy exploring the what, why and how of labour market enforcement. We bring together data and qualitative analysis with five cross-country studies to show how we could do better in the UK when it comes to enforcing labour market rights. READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market Labour Market Outlook Q1 2023 6 April 2023 by Hannah Slaughter In recent months, labour market commentary has been dominated by the knock-on effects of the ongoing cost of living crisis. High inflation continues to erode real wages, despite strong nominal pay growth – and, in contrast to some policy makers’ fears that private sector wage growth could in itself drive prices higher, the latest evidence … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances New Budget, same problems Spring Budget preview 6 March 2023 by Molly Broome and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Karl Handscomb and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Krishan Shah and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In our Spring Budget preview slidepack, we assess the economic outlook ahead of Jeremy Hunt’s Spring Budget on March 15th, and explore the policy choices facing the Chancellor in three key areas: cost-of-living support, public sector pay and boosting growth. We find that there is finally some good news for the Chancellor in the short … Continued READ MORE
Labour market enforcement· Labour market Policing prejudice Enforcing anti-discrimination laws in the workplace 8 November 2022 by Hannah Slaughter This briefing note is part of a three-year programme of research exploring labour market enforcement generously funded by Unbound Philanthropy. In it, we investigate the scale and nature of workplace discrimination, and consider how anti-discrimination rules can be enforced to greater effect. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Blowing the budget Assessing the implications of the September 2022 fiscal statement 24 September 2022 by Torsten Bell and Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Louise Murphy and Krishan Shah and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try The Chancellor decided to blow the budget in his first fiscal statement, bringing forward a £45 billion package of tax cuts, the biggest for 50 years. In this briefing note, we show that today’s Government is no longer fiscally conservative nor courting the Red Wall. Instead, debt is on course to rise in each and every year of the forecast period, and the focus has shifted to the South of England, where the beneficiaries of these tax cuts are more likely to be living. READ MORE
Economy 2030 Power plays The shifting balance of employer and worker power in the UK labour market 7 July 2022 by Ufuk Altunbuken and Pawel Bukowski and Stephen Machin and Hannah Slaughter This briefing note, part of the Economy 2030 Inquiry, looks at shifts in the balance of worker and employer power in recent decades. It assesses the implications of these shifts for both the level and distribution of wages and highlights worker power as an important part of the UK’s economic strategy in the decade ahead. READ MORE
Economy 2030 Listen up Individual experiences of work, consumption and society 11 May 2022 by Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge and Hannah Slaughter What economic strategy should the UK pursue over the next decade, in order both to address long-standing problems in the country (stagnating living standards and high inequality) and to navigate ongoing change (Brexit, net zero transition and a post-pandemic world)? The Economy 2030 Inquiry is a two-year collaboration between the Resolution Foundation and the Centre … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Pay Labour Market Outlook Q1 2022 How should we interpret strong nominal earnings growth? 9 April 2022 by Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Hannah Slaughter and Greg Thwaites In the first months of 2022, the labour market continued to tighten, with no sign of weakening in the aftermath of the JRS. Unemployment has fallen further, and stood at an almost-record low of 3.9 per cent in the three months to January 2022 – and although the Bank of England is concerned about unemployment … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Inflation Nation Putting Spring Statement 2022 in context 24 March 2022 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Adam Corlett and Sophie Hale and Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and Louise Murphy and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Hannah Slaughter and Greg Thwaites This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the March 2022 Spring Statement. The Chancellor approached this with the highest inflation in 40 years and the worst income squeeze on record lying ahead of us. Against that backdrop, and with plenty of fiscal ammunition (thanks to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR’s) … Continued READ MORE
