Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax More, more, more Putting the Autumn Budget 2024 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context 31 October 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This has been the most anticipated Budget of modern times. It had to wrestle with profound – and sometimes conflicting – challenges: fixing the strained public services; repairing failing public services; and breaking with the UK’s dire record on public investment. And all of this had to be squared with pre-election pledges not to raise … Continued READ MORE
Housing Housing Outlook Q2 2024 7 August 2024 by Felicia Odamtten Welcome to this quarter’s Housing Outlook, where we investigate changes in the number and distribution of bedrooms in England over time, evolving norms around the number of bedrooms households require, and the policy challenges in this space. [i] Our findings reveal that, over the past 30 years, the number of households in England reporting … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Housing· Political parties and elections Home truths Putting housing policy in context for the 2024 general election 19 June 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Lindsay Judge and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti The housing offers from both main parties for the 2024 general election are similar in many respects, suggesting that the ‘penny has dropped’ when it comes to boosting housing supply, supporting would-be homeowners, and improving the energy efficiency of our country’s housing stock. As well as a broad consensus forming around some housing policy areas, … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Tax· Welfare· Political parties and elections The narrow path to NICs cuts Analysing the tax and spend package of the 2024 Conservative Manifesto 12 June 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Emma Beale and Molly Broome and Lindsay Judge and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Simon Pittaway and James Smith and Lalitha Try The launch of the Conservative manifesto is a big moment in this election campaign. The strategy here was clear: treble down on National Insurance (NI) rate cuts. The continued focus on NI is welcome, at least compared to the alternatives, and delivers significant cuts in tax for some, with the proposed 2p reduction delivering a … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax Back for more? Putting the 2024 Spring Budget in context 7 March 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the Spring Budget 2024 in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken at the Budget will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term. READ MORE
Household debt· Wealth & assets In too deep? The impact of the cost of living crisis on household debt 29 February 2024 by Felicia Odamtten and Simon Pittaway Hard economic times and rising interest rates have brought a renewed focus on household debt in recent years, with concerns that more and more families could find themselves overwhelmed by the burden of debt. So this briefing note takes a closer look at the use of consumer debt (such as credit cards, personal loans and … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Prices & consumption· Pay· Housing· Wellbeing and mental health Pressure on pay, prices and properties How families were faring in October 2023 14 December 2023 by Mike Brewer and Felicia Odamtten and Hannah Slaughter and Hannah Slocombe and James Smith Two years into the cost of living crisis, inflation has finally turned a corner. The headline rate of CPI inflation has fallen from its October 2022 peak of 11.1 per cent to 4.6 per cent in October 2023, and the Prime Minister has been able to say that his target of halving inflation in 2023 … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances A pre-election Statement Putting the Autumn Statement 2023 in context 23 November 2023 by Camron Aref-Adib and Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the 2023 Autumn Statement in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term. READ MORE
Economy 2030 A tale of two cities (part 2) A plausible strategy for productivity growth in Greater Manchester and beyond 19 September 2023 by Paul Brandily and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Lindsay Judge and Felicia Odamtten and Henry G. Overman and Cara Pacitti and Krishan Shah and Lalitha Try Few would disagree that the UK has a significant productivity problem, or fail to recognise that the poor performance of the nation’s largest cities outside the capital contribute to that situation. As the Economy 2030 Inquiry has made clear, the productivity of our largest cities lags the UK average, bucking the global trend for bigger … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 A tale of two cities (part 1) A plausible strategy for productivity growth in Birmingham and beyond 14 September 2023 by Paul Brandily and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Lindsay Judge and Felicia Odamtten and Henry G. Overman and Cara Pacitti and Krishan Shah and Lalitha Try After the success of the Commonwealth games in 2022, Birmingham is now in the news for the wrong reasons. Financial difficulties facing the City Council culminated in a formal declaration on 5 September 2023 that Britain’s largest local authority was, in effect, bankrupt. But the understandable short-term focus on the council’s financial woes must not … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Cutting the cuts How the public sector can play its part in ending the UK’s low-investment rut 30 March 2023 by Felicia Odamtten and James Smith Britain is a low investment nation. Worse, it has now been one for decades. Total investment as a share of GDP has consistently been below the average of other rich countries for decades. This century, the UK has consistently (in all but two years) been in the bottom 10 per cent of countries in the … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances We’re going on a growth Hunt Putting the 2023 Spring Budget in context 16 March 2023 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Karl Handscomb and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This report examines the economic backdrop to Budget 2023, and assesses whether the Chancellor has successfully delivered on his central objective of boosting growth through higher employment and business investment. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances New Budget, same problems Spring Budget preview 6 March 2023 by Molly Broome and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Karl Handscomb and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Krishan Shah and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In our Spring Budget preview slidepack, we assess the economic outlook ahead of Jeremy Hunt’s Spring Budget on March 15th, and explore the policy choices facing the Chancellor in three key areas: cost-of-living support, public sector pay and boosting growth. We find that there is finally some good news for the Chancellor in the short … Continued READ MORE
Housing Housing Outlook Q1 2023 28 January 2023 by Emily Fry and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti In this first Housing Outlook of 2023, we examine how the cost of living crisis is impacting on working-age individuals’ ability to cope with their housing costs. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Mind the (credibility) gap Autumn Statement preview 1 November 2022 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and Felicia Odamtten and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Lalitha Try In our Autumn-Statement preview slidepack, we present new analysis that explores the economic outlook ahead of the Autumn Statement on 17 November, and the critical decisions that the new Prime Minister and Chancellor must make. With the latest political turmoil triggered by attempts to completely rewrite economic policy, Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are under … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Housing Housing Outlook Q3 2022 17 September 2022 by Felicia Odamtten and Daniel Tomlinson With large increases in private rents reported over the last year, this Housing Outlook reflects on the short- and long-term challenges facing the 4.4 million private renting households in England today. READ MORE
Pensions & savings Living pensions An assessment of whether workers’ pension saving meets a ‘living pension’ benchmark 28 July 2022 by Nye Cominetti and Felicia Odamtten Auto-enrolment has been successful in increasing pension saving participation among workers, especially those on lower incomes. However, given the improvements in take-up, the next pressing concern is whether workers are saving enough to deliver an adequate standard of living in retirement. A ‘Living pension’, parallel to the ‘Living wage’ could help us find the answer. … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty The Living Standards Audit 2022 4 July 2022 by Adam Corlett and Felicia Odamtten and Lalitha Try This report, the 14th in an annual series, takes a long view of what has happened to household incomes in Britain over recent decades, what has driven periods of growth and stagnation, and the lessons that need to be learned if Britain is to return to stronger income growth in the decade ahead. The report … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Labour market enforcement Low Pay Britain 2022 Low pay and insecurity in the UK labour market 25 May 2022 by Nye Cominetti and Rui Costa and Felicia Odamtten This edition of Low Pay Britain is our twelfth annual report taking stock of the state of low pay. Recent editions have focused on the short-term impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on low paid workers. Those have largely receded, and so here we take a longer view, and look at how low paid work has … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Catch 2022 Spring Statement 2022 preview 14 March 2022 by Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and Felicia Odamtten and James Smith Ahead of the 2022 Spring Statement, we preview the economic and fiscal outlook and discuss the key decisions that the Chancellor will face. The Chancellor comes into the Spring Statement with good news since the Autumn. The strongest peacetime growth in a century means the economy is around half a per cent larger, and around … Continued READ MORE
Housing Housing Outlook Q4 2021 The impact of higher inflation on social renters’ housing costs 22 December 2021 by Lindsay Judge and Felicia Odamtten and Krishan Shah Welcome to the final Housing Outlook of 2021.1 Times are tough for many at present, as prices rise and Omicron puts the UK’s tentative economic recovery in jeopardy. In this quarter’s spotlight we assess the living standards prospects of social renters, and in particular consider what soaring inflation means for their housing costs as they … Continued READ MORE
Housing Hope to buy The decline of youth home ownership 2 December 2021 by Adam Corlett and Felicia Odamtten This briefing note explores how the home ownership fortunes of those aged 25 to 34 have changed over time. Owning one’s home is an enduring preference for the majority of families in the UK, but today’s young people face a more serious set of hurdles to overcome than previous generations if they want to turn … Continued READ MORE
Housing Housing Outlook Q3 2021 The effect of transaction tax holidays on house prices 21 August 2021 by Lindsay Judge and Felicia Odamtten and Krishan Shah Welcome to Housing Outlook Q3 2021. In this spotlight we turn our attention once again to the uncanny performance of house prices over the past year. In particular, we focus on the effect of transaction tax holidays across the UK. Introduced to stimulate the housing market in July last year, the Scottish and Welsh transaction … Continued READ MORE
