Economy 2030· Demographics Big welcomes and long goodbyes The impact of demographic change in the 2020s 16 June 2022 by Molly Broome It is well known that UK population ageing is set to accelerate in the 2020s. As a result, the discussion around demographic change tends to fixate on the fiscal implications from increased public spending pressures. But demographic change has wider implications for economies – it influences the size and shape of the labour market, demand … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Wellbeing and mental health· Intergenerational Centre Not working Exploring changing trends in youth worklessness in the UK, from the 1990s to the Covid-19 pandemic 13 June 2022 by Louise Murphy This report is part of the Health Foundation’s Young people’s future health inquiry, in which we focus on the labour market experience of young people, including its implications for health. This report provides a long-term view of what’s been happening to youth worklessness since the 1990s, looking beneath the headline figures. READ MORE
Covid-19· Economy 2030· Cities and regions Right Where You Left Me? Analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic’s impact on local economies in the UK 11 June 2022 by Mike Brewer and Jack Leslie and Lalitha Try Now that the Covid-19 pandemic is largely behind us, this report, part of the Economy 2030 Inquiry, considers what might be the long-term impacts of Covid-19 on spatial inequalities across the UK in key economic outcomes. In contrast to the initial fears that Covid could permanently damage our cities (by removing office workers, with the … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Cities and regions All over the place Perspectives on local economic prosperity 7 June 2022 by Lindsay Judge and Daniel Tomlinson The place where one is born, educated and works can have a profound bearing on one’s living standards. But how do people who live in different types of places experience their local area and want it to change? In April 2022, we ran four focus groups in Yorkshire and the Humber to explore this question. … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Firms Bouncebackability The UK corporate sector's recovery from Covid-19 1 June 2022 by Jack Leslie UK firms have, like every other part of the economy, faced a huge economic hit from the Covid-19 pandemic. So, a key question is: what is the current state of British firms as we emerge from the pandemic? This matters because the nature and strength of the recovery depends on the health of the UK … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Budgets & fiscal events· Living standards· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Welfare Back on target Analysis of the Government’s additional cost of living support 27 May 2022 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb and Jonathan Marshall and Lalitha Try The Chancellor yesterday announced a big and well-targeted package of energy bill support. Of the £15 billion of new measures, almost double that announced earlier in the year, twice as much will go to households in the bottom half of the income distribution as the top half. This fills the gaping hole left by the … Continued READ MORE
Pressure points Where, and how, to focus Government support for households facing surging energy bills 25 May 2022 by Torsten Bell and Karl Handscomb and Jonathan Marshall An assessment of where, and how, to focus Government support for households facing surging energy bills this winter. READ MORE
Economy 2030· Labour market enforcement Low Pay Britain 2022 Low pay and insecurity in the UK labour market 25 May 2022 by Nye Cominetti and Rui Costa and Felicia Odamtten This edition of Low Pay Britain is our twelfth annual report taking stock of the state of low pay. Recent editions have focused on the short-term impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on low paid workers. Those have largely receded, and so here we take a longer view, and look at how low paid work has … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Growing clean Identifying and investing in sustainable growth opportunities across the UK 23 May 2022 by Ralf Martin and Juliana Oliveira-Cunha and Arjun Shah and Anna Valero This report, the 19th report for The Economy 2030 Inquiry, provides a hard-headed assessment of the opportunities presented to UK plc by the move to net zero, and considers how best these can be unlocked. It does this by considering carefully the UK’s pre-existing relative strengths in technologies, goods and services that are relevant for … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Prices & consumption· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Cap off Understanding the April 2022 inflation release 18 May 2022 by Jack Leslie Inflation reached a 40-year high in April off the back of a sharp rise in energy bills and the highest food price inflation in a decade. These recent drivers of inflation mean that lower-income families are facing the most severe cost pressures, with their inflation rate already hitting double digits. Families are already responding to … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Listen up Individual experiences of work, consumption and society 11 May 2022 by Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge and Hannah Slaughter What economic strategy should the UK pursue over the next decade, in order both to address long-standing problems in the country (stagnating living standards and high inequality) and to navigate ongoing change (Brexit, net zero transition and a post-pandemic world)? The Economy 2030 Inquiry is a two-year collaboration between the Resolution Foundation and the Centre … Continued READ MORE
Monetary policy· Fiscal policy· Macroeconomic policy Crunch time Bank of England raises rates again and signals cost of living crisis is set to deliver a £1,200 hit to incomes 5 May 2022 by Adam Corlett and Jonathan Marshall and James Smith Today the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee raised rates at a fourth successive meeting – a first in the 25 years since it was granted independence – to 1 per cent, a level not seen since the financial crisis. The direct impact of this change in rates on households will be small in the … Continued READ MORE
Net zero· Housing Housing Outlook Q2 2022 30 April 2022 by Lindsay Judge and Jonathan Marshall In this Housing Outlook we investigate what the warming world means for England’s housing stock and for the families living in these homes. READ MORE
Economy 2030 Enduring strengths Analysing the UK’s current and potential economic strengths, and what they mean for its economic strategy, at the start of the decisive decade 28 April 2022 by Josh De Lyon and Ralf Martin and Juliana Oliveira-Cunha and Arjun Shah and Krishan Shah and Greg Thwaites and Anna Valero Key to building a new economic strategy which can revitalise the UK economy after a decade of stagnation is understanding our current strengths, how these strengths evolve, and the trade-offs they present. The report uses global data on trade in goods and services and patenting to uncover where the UK’s relative strengths lie; we study … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Pay Labour Market Outlook Q1 2022 How should we interpret strong nominal earnings growth? 9 April 2022 by Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Hannah Slaughter and Greg Thwaites In the first months of 2022, the labour market continued to tighten, with no sign of weakening in the aftermath of the JRS. Unemployment has fallen further, and stood at an almost-record low of 3.9 per cent in the three months to January 2022 – and although the Bank of England is concerned about unemployment … Continued READ MORE
Net zero Low energy The British Energy Security Strategy brings increased ambition on decarbonising electricity but fails to offer immediate respite from high energy costs 8 April 2022 by Jonathan Marshall The Government’s British Energy Security Strategy was charged with reducing national exposure to imported hydrocarbons and bringing down energy bills for already-stretched households. Announcements on the supply side were a mixed bag, with high ambition on nuclear and offshore wind but minimal progress on lower cost onshore wind and solar. Overall, these efforts – culminating … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Tax Happy new tax year? National Insurance and Income Tax changes in 2022 3 April 2022 by Adam Corlett The start of the new tax year brings with it one of Rishi Sunak’s major tax reforms: the rise in National Insurance, announced last September and linked to additional support for the NHS and social care. This spotlight explores what this rate rise – together with freezes in the Income Tax personal allowance, the newly-announced … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Living standards· Prices & consumption· Inequality & poverty Stressed out April brings an acute squeeze on UK living standards as higher energy bills lead to widespread fuel stress 1 April 2022 by Adam Corlett and Jonathan Marshall April 2022 will see the UK’s cost of living crisis intensify as energy prices jump by more than half overnight, pushing 5 million English households into fuel stress, even accounting for support measures recently announced by the Chancellor. This is not the end, though. Against a backdrop of the highest inflation rate in 40 years … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Inflation Nation Putting Spring Statement 2022 in context 24 March 2022 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Adam Corlett and Sophie Hale and Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and Louise Murphy and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Hannah Slaughter and Greg Thwaites This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the March 2022 Spring Statement. The Chancellor approached this with the highest inflation in 40 years and the worst income squeeze on record lying ahead of us. Against that backdrop, and with plenty of fiscal ammunition (thanks to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR’s) … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Tax Softening the blow Looking ahead to Spring Statement 2022 21 March 2022 by Adam Corlett and Torsten Bell Faced with the highest inflation in at least three decades, the upcoming Spring Statement is bound to provide more support for households. But the precise set of choices – which could include support via Fuel Duty, benefits or National Insurance – will play an important role in determining the force of the cost of living … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Catch 2022 Spring Statement 2022 preview 14 March 2022 by Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and Felicia Odamtten and James Smith Ahead of the 2022 Spring Statement, we preview the economic and fiscal outlook and discuss the key decisions that the Chancellor will face. The Chancellor comes into the Spring Statement with good news since the Autumn. The strongest peacetime growth in a century means the economy is around half a per cent larger, and around … Continued READ MORE
Living standards The Living Standards Outlook 2022 8 March 2022 by Adam Corlett and Lalitha Try Our fourth Living Standards Outlook explores the prospects for household incomes over both the near-term, as rising inflation causes a cost of living crisis, and the longer-term, based on the latest economic forecasts. READ MORE
Monetary policy· Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic Policy Outlook: Q1 2022 4 March 2022 by James Smith 2022 is shaping up to be difficult year for policy makers at the Bank of England. While the fastest recovery from a recession since the war is clearly good news, its unbalanced nature at home and abroad has led to a surprising and precipitous rise in inflation. The rise in inflation reflects a mismatch between … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Shrinking footprints The impacts of the net zero transition on households and consumption 1 March 2022 by Adam Corlett and Jonathan Marshall The 2020s are set to bring a step change in climate policy, with efforts to decarbonise the UK economy beginning to impact on household consumption to a greater extent than before. Different households will be exposed to these changes in different ways, but they will come in two flavours: upfront investment now to deliver savings … Continued READ MORE
Under new management How immigration policy change will, and won’t, affect the UK’s path to becoming a high-wage, high-productivity economy 17 February 2022 by Kathleen Henehan Immigration has been billed as both a driver of, and a cure for, a low-wage, low-productivity economy. With big economic changes like Brexit, the recovery from Covid-19 and the transition to net zero emissions coming down the track in the 2020s, this note looks at recent changes in the UK’s immigration system in order to … Continued READ MORE
