Preparing the pitch

Autumn Statement 2023 preview

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In our Autumn Statement preview slidepack, we assess the economic outlook ahead of Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement on November 22nd, and explore the policy choices facing the Chancellor as inflation drives up tax revenues, and interest rates drive up the cost of government debt. We find that the Chancellor is in difficult terrain: although the … Continued

Giving with one hand …

Exploring the impact of minimum wage uprating in 2024 on living standards

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At this year’s Conservative Party Conference, the Chancellor announced that the minimum wage would rise to at least £11 next year, up from its current rate of £10.42. But he may have under-promised. Using the standard uprating methodology, we estimate that the new adult-rate minimum wage could be as high as £11.46 in April 2024 … Continued

Watt’s the plan?

Renewing utilities regulation for the net zero era

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The UK has major infrastructure challenges ahead. We need to decarbonise our energy and transport systems, adapt to a changing climate (temperature extremes, drought and heavier rain), keep up with our insatiable demand for data, and accept that we are finally reaching the limits of our Victorian-built sewers and railways. This requires a huge increase … Continued

A wealth of variety

The variation in household wealth across Britain and what it means for policy

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In this briefing note we explore how wealth was distributed across the nations and regions of Britain on the eve of the pandemic, what determined those differences, and how wealth has evolved in different places since the recent rise in interest rates began. We also explore the policy implications, in particular how Council Tax as … Continued

Finance for the future

Practical solutions for the UK Government to mobilise private investment for economic, environmental and social priorities

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The UK Government has an opportunity to mobilise far greater amounts of private investment for public policy priorities than is the case now. Blended finance, deployed well, offers a tried and tested pathway for public and private investors, with different outcome, risk and return expectations, to work effectively together. This paper provides examples from the … Continued

How higher education can boost people-powered growth

Steering economic change

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Higher education brings benefits to individuals, to the wider economy and to society. From America’s post War GI Bill to the transformation of Korea, more people getting more education is one of the most powerful tools which a government has to transform its economy. The OECD estimate that every extra year of education boosts long … Continued

Learning to grow

How to situate a skills strategy in an economic strategy

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Investing in human capital is a crucial aspect of building an economy that is both more productive and fairer, and any growth strategy must incorporate an agenda for increasing human capital and workforce skills within that. So how should we approach the task of developing a skills strategy that complements a broader economic strategy? In … Continued

Applying the Robbins Principle to Further Education and Apprenticeships

Steering economic change

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Britain does well at higher education, and badly for its non-graduates. The main problem is our failure to train more people when they are young. Shockingly, 30 per cent of 18 year olds are not in education or training – many more than in our competitor countries. Low skills for this group are a major … Continued

Built to last

Towards a sustainable macroeconomic policy framework for the UK

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This paper, part of the Economy 2030 Inquiry, tackles the key question of how to futureproof the UK’s macroeconomic policy framework. Looking beyond the immediate policy challenge of high inflation, it focuses on whether the current framework – largely set during the calmer economic times of the 1990s – is still fit for purpose. Since … Continued

Universal Credit
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Welfare

Rates of change

The impact of a below-inflation uprating on working-age benefits

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NB – this briefing has been updated following the publication of the ONS prices data for September 2023.   The CPI inflation figure for September (6.7 per cent) is the basis on which key working-age benefits are normally uprated in the following April. But with the public finances under real pressure, and prices expected to … Continued

Ready for change

How and why to make the UK economy more dynamic

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Britain’s productivity shortfall is its foundational economic problem. Debate about this gap and how to fix it typically focus on raising productivity of existing firms, via two routes. First, innovation: investment, R&D and patenting as ways to inject new ideas into pre-existing firms. Second, diffusion: the cascading of those new technologies and improved management practices … Continued

From safety net to springboard

Designing an unemployment insurance scheme to protect living standards and boost economic dynamism

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Losing your job in Britain is a very risky business. Low levels of out-of-work benefits are rarely an adequate safety net for those who experience job loss, and workers in the UK who move out of work are at greater risk of experiencing a large income loss than those in most other OECD countries. Some … Continued

A tale of two cities (part 2)

A plausible strategy for productivity growth in Greater Manchester and beyond

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Few would disagree that the UK has a significant productivity problem, or fail to recognise that the poor performance of the nation’s largest cities outside the capital contribute to that situation. As the Economy 2030 Inquiry has made clear, the productivity of our largest cities lags the UK average, bucking the global trend for bigger … Continued

New Zealand

Lessons on economic reform from a distant relative

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New Zealand is geographically the most ‘distant’ country in the world. Its nearest neighbour lies 2,000km away. While having a land mass similar in size to the United Kingdom or Japan, it has only a fraction of their population (approximately 5 million). In these respects, it may be thought to be suis generis, with few lessons … Continued

Half time

The UK’s commitment to halve poverty by 2030

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On 18-19 September, representatives from around the world – including the Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden and the Foreign Secretary James Cleverly – will meet for a UN summit on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These goals are not just about development in poorer countries: the targets and the discussions around this summit have relevance … Continued

A tale of two cities (part 1)

A plausible strategy for productivity growth in Birmingham and beyond

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After the success of the Commonwealth games in 2022, Birmingham is now in the news for the wrong reasons. Financial difficulties facing the City Council culminated in a formal declaration on 5 September 2023 that Britain’s largest local authority was, in effect, bankrupt. But the understandable short-term focus on the council’s financial woes must not … Continued

Family matters

How concerns for younger relatives bridge generational divides

Report by Zack Grant, Jane Green & Geoffrey Evans of Nuffield Politics Research Centre, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, in collaboration with Molly Broome, Sophie Hale & Lord David Willetts of the Resolution Foundation. This new report, a collaborative project between the Resolution Foundation and Nuffield College, Oxford, investigates people’s attitudes towards intergenerational inequalities in … Continued

Reassessing the Work Capability Assessment

What might the proposed changes to the Work Capability Assessment mean for low-to-middle income families?

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Yesterday, the Government announced that it is consulting on changes to the Work Capability Assessment, the assessment used to determine how people with health conditions are treated within the benefits system. Coming shortly after the Health and Disability White Paper, this underlines that we are going to be talking a lot more about health- and … Continued

Putting good work on the table

Reforming labour market institutions to improve pay and conditions

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The UK needs stronger labour market institutions Decent work is a pre-requisite for delivering shared prosperity and improving the lives of the country’s 34-million-strong workforce. In this context, the UK labour market has a number of strengths – from high employment to a national minimum wage that is now among the highest in the world. … Continued

Gotta get through this

Energy bills this winter

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Britain’s energy bill crisis is not over: Ofgem’s imminent confirmation of the Q4 2023 price cap is expected to show that annualised typical energy bills will be above £1,900 from October, close to double those before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and only a little below the effective level of £2,100 from last winter that resulted … Continued

It’s getting hot in here

How ever-warmer UK summer temperatures will have an outsized impact on low-income households and low-paid workers

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Although the UK’s summer of 2023 has been something of a washout so far, the country is getting hotter, with temperatures over 40oC – first experienced in the UK in 2022 – set to become the norm. Hotter weather will impact different people in different ways, so this Spotlight explores what it means for Brits … Continued

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