Pensions & savings· Wealth & assets Precautionary tales Tackling the problem of low saving among UK households 12 February 2024 by Molly Broome and Ian Mulheirn and Simon Pittaway Families in Britain are confronted with what can be termed a ‘triple savings challenge’. This encompasses a lack of accessible ‘rainy day’ savings to cushion small cashflow shocks, inadequate precautionary saving to see people through large and unexpected income shocks, and insufficient saving to provide an adequate income in retirement. These three savings challenges are … Continued READ MORE
Intergenerational Centre· Political parties and elections Poll Position How intergenerational voting intentions have changed since the 2019 General Election 7 February 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Sophie Hale The elections in 2017 and 2019 crystallised a trend that had been building over this century: age became the central fault line in British politics. But those were not normal elections: Brexit loomed large, an issue with distinctly age-divided views. This note investigates where we are now, picking out five big intergenerational shifts that have occurred since the last general election. READ MORE
Catastrophic caps An analysis of the impact of the two-child limit and the benefit cap 31 January 2024 by Lalitha Try In the benefit system, entitlement and need are intertwined: the greater the need, the more benefit income a family is usually entitled to receive. But in the 2010s, two policies were introduced that delinked entitlement and need by limiting the amount of benefits some families could receive: the benefit cap in 2013, and the two-child … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market Labour Market Outlook Q1 2024 29 January 2024 by Charlie McCurdy When comparing the pre-pandemic period to today, the national employment story has generally focused on the rise in inactivity due to ill health and the resultant fall in employment. However, in this note, we show that this is not the picture in all parts of the country. First, not everywhere has seen employment fall. Low-employment … Continued READ MORE
Brexit & trade Local roots of trade routes The UK’s regional services trade over time 23 January 2024 by Emily Fry and Will Barlow Services trade is increasingly important for the UK Politicians are often laser-focussed on goods trade, but trade in services is increasingly important for the UK’s growth story. Globally, services trade growth is expected to continue to outpace goods trade growth – with the share of services predicted to rise from 25 per cent of trade … Continued READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q1 2024 5 January 2024 by Simon Pittaway 2023 was yet another year of economic stagnation for the UK. By the third quarter of the year, economic activity was only 0.2 per cent higher than at the end of 2022. But forecasts this time last year were far gloomier than the year of stagnation that came to pass. One reason why the UK … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Prices & consumption From merry Christmas to a messy new year What 2024 has in store 29 December 2023 by Torsten Bell 2024 is going to be messy, for our living standards not just politics. The past two years have been dominated by rising energy and food bills, with everyone affected. It will be very different in 2024. Inflation falling back faster than expected means many will benefit from rising real wages. But politicians tempted to claim … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Low pay· Living Wage Narrowing the youth gap Exploring the impact of changes to the minimum wage on the incidence of low pay among young people 20 December 2023 by Louise Murphy and Esiri Bukata In the Autumn Statement last month, the Chancellor announced big changes to the minimum wage. Alongside the announcement that the adult-rate minimum wage (the ‘National Living Wage’, or NLW) will increase by 10 per cent in April 2024, there were two important changes relating to the minimum wage rates that apply to young people. First, … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Prices & consumption· Pay· Wellbeing and mental health· Housing Pressure on pay, prices and properties How families were faring in October 2023 14 December 2023 by Mike Brewer and Felicia Odamtten and Hannah Slaughter and Hannah Slocombe and James Smith Two years into the cost of living crisis, inflation has finally turned a corner. The headline rate of CPI inflation has fallen from its October 2022 peak of 11.1 per cent to 4.6 per cent in October 2023, and the Prime Minister has been able to say that his target of halving inflation in 2023 … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Pay Labour Market Outlook Q4 2023 What’s happening to pay growth? 12 December 2023 by Hannah Slaughter Over the course of 2023, the labour market has been gradually cooling on most measures. Even ignoring data from the Labour Force Survey that has recently been called into question, vacancies have been falling for 16 consecutive months and growth in payrolled employment has slowed. But nominal wage growth has remained resilient – even, since … Continued READ MORE
Housing· Welfare A temporary thaw An analysis of Local Housing Allowance uprating over time 9 December 2023 by Alex Clegg In the 2023 Autumn Statement, the Chancellor announced that the Local Housing Allowance (LHA) will be re-pegged to the 30th percentile of local rents in April 2024. This will be the first increase to the LHA in four years, good news for the 1.3 million private renter households in receipt of Universal Credit or Housing … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Ending stagnation A New Economic Strategy for Britain 4 December 2023 The UK has great strengths, but is a decade and a half into a period of stagnation. The toxic combination of slow growth and high inequality was straining the living standards of low- and middle-income Britain well before the cost of living crisis struck. It is time to embark on a new path. This, the … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Inequality & poverty· Cities and regions· Housing· Economic growth Talking trade-offs Deliberations on a higher-productivity future in the Birmingham and Greater Manchester urban areas 30 November 2023 by Tania Burchardt and Tara Goatley and Lindsay Judge The cities of Manchester and Birmingham may have illustrious economic histories, but today both underperform the national average on a number of key economic measures. This is especially the case when it comes to productivity growth. Accelerating productivity in each city region would require radical reforms trade-offs to be made, but these changes cannot be … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances A pre-election Statement Putting the Autumn Statement 2023 in context 23 November 2023 by Camron Aref-Adib and Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the 2023 Autumn Statement in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term. READ MORE
Ventures Workertech Partnership: Impact & Learning Report 21 November 2023 by Nicholas Andreou and Louise Marston and Emma Selinger Resolution Ventures created the Workertech Partnership to back innovative start-ups seeking to change the world of work for the better. The UK’s first programme of social investment to improve the experiences of those in low-paid and precarious work seeks to create better pay, progression, power and wellbeing for workers through better use of technology. The … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Labour market· Wealth & assets· Housing· Intergenerational Centre An intergenerational audit for the UK 2023 13 November 2023 by Molly Broome and Adam Corlett and Sophie Hale and Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti Five years ago, our Intergenerational Commission set out the numerous threats to the UK’s promise of intergenerational progress. More recently, the spotlight has once again fallen on this issue, but this time in the US, where the latest data has started to suggest that living standards for the millennials are catching up with, and on … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 In place of centralisation A devolution deal for London, Greater Manchester, and the West Midlands 8 November 2023 Higher economic growth in the UK requires big changes. Tackling the persistent underperformance of Manchester and Birmingham, as well as the stagnation of London’s economy since the financial crisis, are some of the changes needed to improve national prosperity. One of the reasons for their poor performance is the British state’s internationally exceptional level of … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Preparing the pitch Autumn Statement 2023 preview 6 November 2023 by Adam Corlett and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites In our Autumn Statement preview slidepack, we assess the economic outlook ahead of Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement on November 22nd, and explore the policy choices facing the Chancellor as inflation drives up tax revenues, and interest rates drive up the cost of government debt. We find that the Chancellor is in difficult terrain: although the … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay· Living Wage Giving with one hand … Exploring the impact of minimum wage uprating in 2024 on living standards 4 November 2023 by Nye Cominetti At this year’s Conservative Party Conference, the Chancellor announced that the minimum wage would rise to at least £11 next year, up from its current rate of £10.42. But he may have under-promised. Using the standard uprating methodology, we estimate that the new adult-rate minimum wage could be as high as £11.46 in April 2024 … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Watt’s the plan? Renewing utilities regulation for the net zero era 1 November 2023 by Mary Starks The UK has major infrastructure challenges ahead. We need to decarbonise our energy and transport systems, adapt to a changing climate (temperature extremes, drought and heavier rain), keep up with our insatiable demand for data, and accept that we are finally reaching the limits of our Victorian-built sewers and railways. This requires a huge increase … Continued READ MORE
A wealth of variety The variation in household wealth across Britain and what it means for policy 30 October 2023 by Molly Broome and Ian Mulheirn and Simon Pittaway In this briefing note we explore how wealth was distributed across the nations and regions of Britain on the eve of the pandemic, what determined those differences, and how wealth has evolved in different places since the recent rise in interest rates began. We also explore the policy implications, in particular how Council Tax as … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Finance for the future Practical solutions for the UK Government to mobilise private investment for economic, environmental and social priorities 26 October 2023 by Anna Valero and Sarah Gordon The UK Government has an opportunity to mobilise far greater amounts of private investment for public policy priorities than is the case now. Blended finance, deployed well, offers a tried and tested pathway for public and private investors, with different outcome, risk and return expectations, to work effectively together. This paper provides examples from the … Continued READ MORE
Living Wage Calculating the Real Living Wage for London and the rest of the UK: 2023 24 October 2023 by Nye Cominetti and Louise Murphy This report sets out the method through which the Living Wage (LW) rates – a voluntary hourly pay rate that is based on what families need to get by – in London and the rest of the UK are calculated by the Resolution Foundation, and overseen by the Living Wage Commission on behalf of the … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 How higher education can boost people-powered growth Steering economic change 24 October 2023 by David Willetts Higher education brings benefits to individuals, to the wider economy and to society. From America’s post War GI Bill to the transformation of Korea, more people getting more education is one of the most powerful tools which a government has to transform its economy. The OECD estimate that every extra year of education boosts long … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Learning to grow How to situate a skills strategy in an economic strategy 24 October 2023 by Rui Costa and Sandra McNally and Guglielmo Ventura and Louise Murphy and Anna Valero Investing in human capital is a crucial aspect of building an economy that is both more productive and fairer, and any growth strategy must incorporate an agenda for increasing human capital and workforce skills within that. So how should we approach the task of developing a skills strategy that complements a broader economic strategy? In … Continued READ MORE
