A temporary thaw

An analysis of Local Housing Allowance uprating over time

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In the 2023 Autumn Statement, the Chancellor announced that the Local Housing Allowance (LHA) will be re-pegged to the 30th percentile of local rents in April 2024. This will be the first increase to the LHA in four years, good news for the 1.3 million private renter households in receipt of Universal Credit or Housing … Continued

Ending stagnation

A New Economic Strategy for Britain

The UK has great strengths, but is a decade and a half into a period of stagnation. The toxic combination of slow growth and high inequality was straining the living standards of low- and middle-income Britain well before the cost of living crisis struck. It is time to embark on a new path. This, the … Continued

Talking trade-offs

Deliberations on a higher-productivity future in the Birmingham and Greater Manchester urban areas

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The cities of Manchester and Birmingham may have illustrious economic histories, but today both underperform the national average on a number of key economic measures. This is especially the case when it comes to productivity growth. Accelerating productivity in each city region would require radical reforms trade-offs to be made, but these changes cannot be … Continued

A pre-election Statement

Putting the Autumn Statement 2023 in context

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In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the 2023 Autumn Statement in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term.

Ventures

Workertech Partnership: Impact & Learning Report

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Resolution Ventures created the Workertech Partnership to back innovative start-ups seeking to change the world of work for the better. The UK’s first programme of social investment to improve the experiences of those in low-paid and precarious work seeks to create better pay, progression, power and wellbeing for workers through better use of technology. The … Continued

An intergenerational audit for the UK

2023

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Five years ago, our Intergenerational Commission set out the numerous threats to the UK’s promise of intergenerational progress. More recently, the spotlight has once again fallen on this issue, but this time in the US, where the latest data has started to suggest that living standards for the millennials are catching up with, and on … Continued

In place of centralisation

A devolution deal for London, Greater Manchester, and the West Midlands

Higher economic growth in the UK requires big changes. Tackling the persistent underperformance of Manchester and Birmingham, as well as the stagnation of London’s economy since the financial crisis, are some of the changes needed to improve national prosperity. One of the reasons for their poor performance is the British state’s internationally exceptional level of … Continued

Preparing the pitch

Autumn Statement 2023 preview

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In our Autumn Statement preview slidepack, we assess the economic outlook ahead of Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement on November 22nd, and explore the policy choices facing the Chancellor as inflation drives up tax revenues, and interest rates drive up the cost of government debt. We find that the Chancellor is in difficult terrain: although the … Continued

Giving with one hand …

Exploring the impact of minimum wage uprating in 2024 on living standards

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At this year’s Conservative Party Conference, the Chancellor announced that the minimum wage would rise to at least £11 next year, up from its current rate of £10.42. But he may have under-promised. Using the standard uprating methodology, we estimate that the new adult-rate minimum wage could be as high as £11.46 in April 2024 … Continued

Watt’s the plan?

Renewing utilities regulation for the net zero era

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The UK has major infrastructure challenges ahead. We need to decarbonise our energy and transport systems, adapt to a changing climate (temperature extremes, drought and heavier rain), keep up with our insatiable demand for data, and accept that we are finally reaching the limits of our Victorian-built sewers and railways. This requires a huge increase … Continued

A wealth of variety

The variation in household wealth across Britain and what it means for policy

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In this briefing note we explore how wealth was distributed across the nations and regions of Britain on the eve of the pandemic, what determined those differences, and how wealth has evolved in different places since the recent rise in interest rates began. We also explore the policy implications, in particular how Council Tax as … Continued

Finance for the future

Practical solutions for the UK Government to mobilise private investment for economic, environmental and social priorities

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The UK Government has an opportunity to mobilise far greater amounts of private investment for public policy priorities than is the case now. Blended finance, deployed well, offers a tried and tested pathway for public and private investors, with different outcome, risk and return expectations, to work effectively together. This paper provides examples from the … Continued

How higher education can boost people-powered growth

Steering economic change

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Higher education brings benefits to individuals, to the wider economy and to society. From America’s post War GI Bill to the transformation of Korea, more people getting more education is one of the most powerful tools which a government has to transform its economy. The OECD estimate that every extra year of education boosts long … Continued

Learning to grow

How to situate a skills strategy in an economic strategy

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Investing in human capital is a crucial aspect of building an economy that is both more productive and fairer, and any growth strategy must incorporate an agenda for increasing human capital and workforce skills within that. So how should we approach the task of developing a skills strategy that complements a broader economic strategy? In … Continued

Applying the Robbins Principle to Further Education and Apprenticeships

Steering economic change

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Britain does well at higher education, and badly for its non-graduates. The main problem is our failure to train more people when they are young. Shockingly, 30 per cent of 18 year olds are not in education or training – many more than in our competitor countries. Low skills for this group are a major … Continued

Built to last

Towards a sustainable macroeconomic policy framework for the UK

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This paper, part of the Economy 2030 Inquiry, tackles the key question of how to futureproof the UK’s macroeconomic policy framework. Looking beyond the immediate policy challenge of high inflation, it focuses on whether the current framework – largely set during the calmer economic times of the 1990s – is still fit for purpose. Since … Continued

Universal Credit
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Welfare

Rates of change

The impact of a below-inflation uprating on working-age benefits

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NB – this briefing has been updated following the publication of the ONS prices data for September 2023.   The CPI inflation figure for September (6.7 per cent) is the basis on which key working-age benefits are normally uprated in the following April. But with the public finances under real pressure, and prices expected to … Continued

Ready for change

How and why to make the UK economy more dynamic

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Britain’s productivity shortfall is its foundational economic problem. Debate about this gap and how to fix it typically focus on raising productivity of existing firms, via two routes. First, innovation: investment, R&D and patenting as ways to inject new ideas into pre-existing firms. Second, diffusion: the cascading of those new technologies and improved management practices … Continued

From safety net to springboard

Designing an unemployment insurance scheme to protect living standards and boost economic dynamism

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Losing your job in Britain is a very risky business. Low levels of out-of-work benefits are rarely an adequate safety net for those who experience job loss, and workers in the UK who move out of work are at greater risk of experiencing a large income loss than those in most other OECD countries. Some … Continued

A tale of two cities (part 2)

A plausible strategy for productivity growth in Greater Manchester and beyond

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Few would disagree that the UK has a significant productivity problem, or fail to recognise that the poor performance of the nation’s largest cities outside the capital contribute to that situation. As the Economy 2030 Inquiry has made clear, the productivity of our largest cities lags the UK average, bucking the global trend for bigger … Continued

New Zealand

Lessons on economic reform from a distant relative

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New Zealand is geographically the most ‘distant’ country in the world. Its nearest neighbour lies 2,000km away. While having a land mass similar in size to the United Kingdom or Japan, it has only a fraction of their population (approximately 5 million). In these respects, it may be thought to be suis generis, with few lessons … Continued

Half time

The UK’s commitment to halve poverty by 2030

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On 18-19 September, representatives from around the world – including the Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden and the Foreign Secretary James Cleverly – will meet for a UN summit on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These goals are not just about development in poorer countries: the targets and the discussions around this summit have relevance … Continued

A tale of two cities (part 1)

A plausible strategy for productivity growth in Birmingham and beyond

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After the success of the Commonwealth games in 2022, Birmingham is now in the news for the wrong reasons. Financial difficulties facing the City Council culminated in a formal declaration on 5 September 2023 that Britain’s largest local authority was, in effect, bankrupt. But the understandable short-term focus on the council’s financial woes must not … Continued

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