Living standards· Housing Housing Outlook Q1 2024 25 March 2024 by Lindsay Judge and Adam Corlett Welcome to our first Housing Outlook in what looks set to be an election year, and one where housing could well be a prominent issue. This quarter, we consider whether the UK’s housing woes are shared by other developed economies, or if the issues of housing affordability and quality we highlight so frequently are distinctly … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Wellbeing and mental health A U-shaped legacy Taking stock of trends in economic inactivity in 2024 23 March 2024 by Louise Murphy In an election year, jobs and benefits are often centre stage. Alongside the UK’s stagnant wage growth, there is one big issue that will face the next government: the rises in economic inactivity and health-related benefit claims. Real pay growth, unemployment and vacancies have all returned roughly to 2019 rates. But there is one aspect … Continued READ MORE
Tax· Welfare Pensioner progress The impact of personal tax and benefit changes since 2010 on pensioner families 12 March 2024 by Mike Brewer and Alex Clegg and Lalitha Try Tax-paying pensioners did not gain anything from the Chancellor’s Budget last week, and policies announced since 2019, including the six-year freeze to tax thresholds, will cut the incomes of pensioners by an average of £900 a year, with the largest losses felt by pensioners on the highest incomes. This has prompted accusations that the Government … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax Back for more? Putting the 2024 Spring Budget in context 7 March 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the Spring Budget 2024 in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken at the Budget will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term. READ MORE
Household debt· Wealth & assets In too deep? The impact of the cost of living crisis on household debt 29 February 2024 by Felicia Odamtten and Simon Pittaway Hard economic times and rising interest rates have brought a renewed focus on household debt in recent years, with concerns that more and more families could find themselves overwhelmed by the burden of debt. So this briefing note takes a closer look at the use of consumer debt (such as credit cards, personal loans and … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Skills· Wellbeing and mental health We’ve only just begun Action to improve young people’s mental health, education and employment 26 February 2024 by Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy The transition to adulthood is a tumultuous time: leaving education, entering the labour market, living independent of family and managing one’s finances all come with their stresses and strains. But this crucial part of the life course can be especially challenging for young people with mental health problems who are more likely to struggle in … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances The Election Budget Spring Budget 2024 preview 21 February 2024 by Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites In this slide pack we preview the upcoming Budget, assessing the economic and fiscal outlook ahead of what will be a key pre-election economic-policy event. We focus on the scope for cutting taxes, and the implications of different policy choices, putting the Chancellor’s upcoming decisions in a broader context. We find that, despite near-term bad … Continued READ MORE
Brexit & trade Decent exposure An overview of how Britain’s exposure to trade has changed 19 February 2024 by Sophie Hale In this briefing note we assess how the exposure to international trade has changed over the past two decades. First, we consider the role that declining manufacturing employment has played on how exposed workers at different pay levels have become. Second, we explore how we have become more reliant on international trade through our everyday … Continued READ MORE
Pensions & savings· Wealth & assets Precautionary tales Tackling the problem of low saving among UK households 12 February 2024 by Molly Broome and Ian Mulheirn and Simon Pittaway Families in Britain are confronted with what can be termed a ‘triple savings challenge’. This encompasses a lack of accessible ‘rainy day’ savings to cushion small cashflow shocks, inadequate precautionary saving to see people through large and unexpected income shocks, and insufficient saving to provide an adequate income in retirement. These three savings challenges are … Continued READ MORE
Intergenerational Centre· Political parties and elections Poll Position How intergenerational voting intentions have changed since the 2019 General Election 7 February 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Sophie Hale The elections in 2017 and 2019 crystallised a trend that had been building over this century: age became the central fault line in British politics. But those were not normal elections: Brexit loomed large, an issue with distinctly age-divided views. This note investigates where we are now, picking out five big intergenerational shifts that have occurred since the last general election. READ MORE
Catastrophic caps An analysis of the impact of the two-child limit and the benefit cap 31 January 2024 by Lalitha Try In the benefit system, entitlement and need are intertwined: the greater the need, the more benefit income a family is usually entitled to receive. But in the 2010s, two policies were introduced that delinked entitlement and need by limiting the amount of benefits some families could receive: the benefit cap in 2013, and the two-child … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market Labour Market Outlook Q1 2024 29 January 2024 by Charlie McCurdy When comparing the pre-pandemic period to today, the national employment story has generally focused on the rise in inactivity due to ill health and the resultant fall in employment. However, in this note, we show that this is not the picture in all parts of the country. First, not everywhere has seen employment fall. Low-employment … Continued READ MORE
Brexit & trade Local roots of trade routes The UK’s regional services trade over time 23 January 2024 by Emily Fry and Will Barlow Services trade is increasingly important for the UK Politicians are often laser-focussed on goods trade, but trade in services is increasingly important for the UK’s growth story. Globally, services trade growth is expected to continue to outpace goods trade growth – with the share of services predicted to rise from 25 per cent of trade … Continued READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q1 2024 5 January 2024 by Simon Pittaway 2023 was yet another year of economic stagnation for the UK. By the third quarter of the year, economic activity was only 0.2 per cent higher than at the end of 2022. But forecasts this time last year were far gloomier than the year of stagnation that came to pass. One reason why the UK … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Prices & consumption From merry Christmas to a messy new year What 2024 has in store 29 December 2023 by Torsten Bell 2024 is going to be messy, for our living standards not just politics. The past two years have been dominated by rising energy and food bills, with everyone affected. It will be very different in 2024. Inflation falling back faster than expected means many will benefit from rising real wages. But politicians tempted to claim … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Low pay· Living Wage Narrowing the youth gap Exploring the impact of changes to the minimum wage on the incidence of low pay among young people 20 December 2023 by Louise Murphy and Esiri Bukata In the Autumn Statement last month, the Chancellor announced big changes to the minimum wage. Alongside the announcement that the adult-rate minimum wage (the ‘National Living Wage’, or NLW) will increase by 10 per cent in April 2024, there were two important changes relating to the minimum wage rates that apply to young people. First, … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Prices & consumption· Pay· Wellbeing and mental health· Housing Pressure on pay, prices and properties How families were faring in October 2023 14 December 2023 by Mike Brewer and Felicia Odamtten and Hannah Slaughter and Hannah Slocombe and James Smith Two years into the cost of living crisis, inflation has finally turned a corner. The headline rate of CPI inflation has fallen from its October 2022 peak of 11.1 per cent to 4.6 per cent in October 2023, and the Prime Minister has been able to say that his target of halving inflation in 2023 … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Pay Labour Market Outlook Q4 2023 What’s happening to pay growth? 12 December 2023 by Hannah Slaughter Over the course of 2023, the labour market has been gradually cooling on most measures. Even ignoring data from the Labour Force Survey that has recently been called into question, vacancies have been falling for 16 consecutive months and growth in payrolled employment has slowed. But nominal wage growth has remained resilient – even, since … Continued READ MORE
Housing· Welfare A temporary thaw An analysis of Local Housing Allowance uprating over time 9 December 2023 by Alex Clegg In the 2023 Autumn Statement, the Chancellor announced that the Local Housing Allowance (LHA) will be re-pegged to the 30th percentile of local rents in April 2024. This will be the first increase to the LHA in four years, good news for the 1.3 million private renter households in receipt of Universal Credit or Housing … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Ending stagnation A New Economic Strategy for Britain 4 December 2023 The UK has great strengths, but is a decade and a half into a period of stagnation. The toxic combination of slow growth and high inequality was straining the living standards of low- and middle-income Britain well before the cost of living crisis struck. It is time to embark on a new path. This, the … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Inequality & poverty· Cities and regions· Housing· Economic growth Talking trade-offs Deliberations on a higher-productivity future in the Birmingham and Greater Manchester urban areas 30 November 2023 by Tania Burchardt and Tara Goatley and Lindsay Judge The cities of Manchester and Birmingham may have illustrious economic histories, but today both underperform the national average on a number of key economic measures. This is especially the case when it comes to productivity growth. Accelerating productivity in each city region would require radical reforms trade-offs to be made, but these changes cannot be … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances A pre-election Statement Putting the Autumn Statement 2023 in context 23 November 2023 by Camron Aref-Adib and Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the 2023 Autumn Statement in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term. READ MORE
Ventures Workertech Partnership: Impact & Learning Report 21 November 2023 by Nicholas Andreou and Louise Marston and Emma Selinger Resolution Ventures created the Workertech Partnership to back innovative start-ups seeking to change the world of work for the better. The UK’s first programme of social investment to improve the experiences of those in low-paid and precarious work seeks to create better pay, progression, power and wellbeing for workers through better use of technology. The … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Labour market· Wealth & assets· Housing· Intergenerational Centre An intergenerational audit for the UK 2023 13 November 2023 by Molly Broome and Adam Corlett and Sophie Hale and Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti Five years ago, our Intergenerational Commission set out the numerous threats to the UK’s promise of intergenerational progress. More recently, the spotlight has once again fallen on this issue, but this time in the US, where the latest data has started to suggest that living standards for the millennials are catching up with, and on … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 In place of centralisation A devolution deal for London, Greater Manchester, and the West Midlands 8 November 2023 Higher economic growth in the UK requires big changes. Tackling the persistent underperformance of Manchester and Birmingham, as well as the stagnation of London’s economy since the financial crisis, are some of the changes needed to improve national prosperity. One of the reasons for their poor performance is the British state’s internationally exceptional level of … Continued READ MORE
