Low pay· Pay· Living Wage Low Pay Britain 2016 18 October 2016 by Stephen Clarke and Conor D’Arcy This is our sixth annual report on the prevalence of low pay in Britain. It uses the latest data available (2015) to map out the scale of low pay and the groups that are most affected. It shows how this has changed over recent decades and looks at what the coming years might hold, particularly … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Pay The RF Earnings Outlook Q2 2016 18 October 2016 by Adam Corlett The second quarter of 2016 marked both the introduction of the National Living Wage and the vote to leave the European Union. There are tentative signs that the former has led to strong shared pay growth without affecting aggregate unemployment, but more data will be needed. Referendum effects are not yet visible, but Q2 2016 … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Tax Double take: workers with multiple jobs and reforms to National Insurance 1 October 2016 by Adam Corlett and David Finch The tax treatment of workers with multiple jobs may be reformed as part of proposals by the Office of Tax Simplification (OTS) to more closely align National Insurance (NI) and income tax. The current system of NI largely operates on a per job – rather than per person – basis, allowing a worker with two … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Incomes· Inequality & poverty Hanging on: the stresses and strains of Britain’s ‘just managing’ families 29 September 2016 by David Finch New governments have no record on which to be judged, meaning that a great deal of emphasis is placed on what they say. Our new Prime Minister has made it clear that her government will focus its attention on working families with relatively low earnings – those who are ‘just managing’. That approach has been … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Demographics· Intergenerational Centre· Political parties and elections Votey McVoteface: Understanding the growing turnout gap between the generations 23 September 2016 by Laura Gardiner Renewing the intergenerational contract relies on broad engagement in the democratic process across the generations. This is not least the case because any new policy agenda will require public support, in order for democratically-elected politicians to pursue it. In this light, the generational turnout gap that has opened up since the mid-1990s – and was … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Examining an elephant: globalisation and the lower middle class of the rich world 13 September 2016 by Adam Corlett The UK’s vote to leave the EU, the US presidential election and proposed free trade deals have all prompted renewed debate about the winners and losers of globalisation. The two decades before the financial crisis were “a heyday of global trade integration” in which international trade as a share of the global economy rose dramatically. … Continued READ MORE
Social care· Low pay· Labour market· Pay Rising to the challenge: early evidence on the introduction of the National Living Wage in the social care sector 30 August 2016 by Laura Gardiner While broadly welcomed by business, the introduction of the National Living Wage (NLW) – the new higher minimum wage for workers aged 25 and over – has sparked some concerns about affordability and prompted discussions around likely employment responses – especially in lower-paying sectors where the wage increase is set to bite hardest. It will … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay· Migration A Brave New World: how reduced migration could affect earnings, employment and the labour market 16 August 2016 by Stephen Clarke In the wake of the vote to leave the European Union it seems likely that the UK will adopt a new immigration regime, moving away from the current free movement of people within the EU and possibly extending the current points-based-system that applies to those outside the European Union. Given the government’s promise to bring … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Pay The RF Earnings Outlook Q1 2016 15 August 2016 by Laura Gardiner Overshadowing the latest outturn data for the labour market, and our picture of the UK economy more widely, is the UK’s decision to leave the EU. It will take some time before the effects of this decision make themselves felt in the hard economic data, but a detailed look at the pre-referendum jobs market can … Continued READ MORE
Pay· Living Wage Making the Living Wage: The Resolution Foundation review of the Living Wage 27 July 2016 by Conor D’Arcy and David Finch The recommendations outlined in this review aim to further strengthen the Living Wage campaign. They set out an improved Living Wage methodology to underpin the campaign as it moves into the next stage of its development while being more firmly grounded in the cost of living. READ MORE
Brexit & trade· Economic growth· Political parties and elections The Importance of Place: explaining the characteristics underpinning the Brexit vote across different parts of the UK 15 July 2016 by Stephen Clarke and Matthew Whittaker Post-referendum analysis has highlighted the importance of demographic, economic and cultural factors on individuals’ vote. In this note, we consider the importance of place; highlighting the extent to which those same factors matter across 378 of Britain’s 380 local authorities. We test the strength of the relationship between these different factors and the vote while holding … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Low pay· Pay· Living Wage The first 100 days: early evidence on the impact of the National Living Wage 11 July 2016 by Conor D’Arcy and Matthew Whittaker In this briefing note, we combine official data and a bespoke survey to better understand employers’ initial reaction to the announcement and implementation of the National Living Wage and their plans for the future. We also consider the implications of the Brexit vote for the future trajectory of the NLW. READ MORE
Labour market Robot wars: automation and the labour market 4 July 2016 by Adam Corlett Should we be concerned that robots will ‘take all the jobs’? Certainly there is no shortage of exciting new technologies on the horizon and, although predictions of technological unemployment have never yet come to pass, it is worth assessing what we know about our labour market and automation. READ MORE
Living standards· Housing The housing headwind: the impact of rising housing costs on UK living standards 28 June 2016 by Stephen Clarke and Adam Corlett and Lindsay Judge This report explores the question of how incomes and housing costs have interacted over time. It asks a seemingly simple question: how affordable has housing been for different groups in the UK over the last two decades? Through this exercise, we show how housing costs have (or have not) contributed to living standards at different … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Intergenerational Centre Stagnation Generation: the case for renewing the intergenerational contract 18 June 2016 by Laura Gardiner Just like families, states and societies are underpinned by a social contract between the generations – collectively supporting each of us through the stages of our lives, and crucially doing so fairly. But this contract looks at risk of fraying. Even before the EU referendum result highlighted big differences between the generations, with the under … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Retention deficit: a new approach to boosting employment for people with health problems and disabilities 7 June 2016 by Laura Gardiner and Declan Gaffney The government has positioned halving the disability employment gap as a central challenge for the UK labour market. To make significant progress on this ambition, a comprehensive set of changes will be needed, alongside a cultural shift in how we view the connections between disability, health and employment in this country. The Green Paper on … Continued READ MORE
Low pay· Labour market· Skills· Social mobility Finding your routes: non-graduate pathways in the UK’s labour market 11 May 2016 by Conor D’Arcy and David Finch This report, commissioned by the Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission, explores how poor career routes are holding back the ‘forgotten forty per cent’ of the workforce – mid-skilled workers with at least five A*-C GCSEs but without a university education. READ MORE
Welfare Universal Challenge – making a success of Universal Credit 3 May 2016 by David Finch This report sets out a three point plan for the new Secretary of State, designed to both ensure that UC will provide the support needed for families moving into and progressing in work in the future and to make implementation as simple as possible. We argue that Stephen Crabb should restate and reclaim the role … Continued READ MORE
Housing Can we fix it? Solving Britain’s housing crisis 26 April 2016 by Lindsay Judge Housing is the subject of much political and media attention – but commentary focuses primarily on rising house prices and declining home ownership. Our research looks at housing costs as a proportion of income over time. This slide pack is the precursor to a report that will be published shortly. READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Pay The RF Earnings Outlook Q4 2015 18 April 2016 by Laura Gardiner In terms of measured jobs market performance and the broader earnings picture, the key recent change has been a gloomier view on productivity, due both to poor Q4 outturns and in particular the downward forecast revisions at last month’s Budget. The productivity disappointment has been mirrored in more muted real average weekly earnings growth. The latest … Continued READ MORE
Scotland· Housing· Tax Battle of the bands: the prospect of council tax reform in Scotland and beyond 8 April 2016 by Adam Corlett It is 25 years since the UK government announced its plan to abolish the community charge and introduce a new local tax for Scotland, England and Wales. Since then, council tax has undergone almost no reform, and in Scotland and England is still based on property values from 1 April 1991. But now change is afoot, … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Budget 2016 response 17 March 2016 by Matthew Whittaker In this note, we consider seven of the day’s key takeaways from the Chancellor’s latest Budget. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax· Political parties and elections Time for revision: why the Chancellor needs to look again at his plans for tax cuts in the Budget 14 March 2016 by Stephen Clarke and David Finch and Matthew Whittaker This briefing note considers possible tax cuts that could feature in the Chancellor’s upcoming Budget, and looks at how these policy choices can be made in a way that better benefits lower earners. READ MORE
Pensions & savings· Tax Save it for another day: pension tax relief and options for reform 10 March 2016 by Adam Corlett and Matthew Whittaker The Treasury has reportedly backed away from pension tax reforms, at least temporarily. Given the scale of existing tax relief, its particular benefits for higher income savers, and the potential wider impact of any change, this is perhaps understandable. But there remains a strong case for making the current system cheaper, fairer and better targeted. … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The road to full employment: what the journey looks like and how to make progress 3 March 2016 by Paul Gregg and Laura Gardiner ‘Full employment’, for so long considered an unreachable relic of a bygone age, is back on the agenda. That it is once again part of economic and political debates is testament to the UK’s remarkably strong employment performance in recent years. A record-high employment rate is something few people would have thought possible this soon … Continued READ MORE
