Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Sugar rush: Spring Statement response 14 March 2018 This paper sets out RF’s overnight response to the 2018 Spring Statement, using HMT and OBR data and projections to consider what is going on in the public finances and what the outlook is for household living standards. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances A man for all seasons? What the Chancellor can expect in the OBR’s Spring outlook 8 March 2018 by Matthew Whittaker Consumer borrowing has been surging over recent months, raising fears that we are storing up more debt-fuelled problems for tomorrow. This note digs into the numbers and focuses on who is taking out all the credit. We consider also how the profile of the UK’s household debt will stand up to increasing interest rates in the coming years. READ MORE
Labour market· Intergenerational Centre The kids aren’t alright: a new approach to tackle the challenges faced by young people in the UK labour market 26 February 2018 by Stephen Clarke and Conor D’Arcy A bold new approach is required to help the one in three millennials who say they’ve been held back from moving jobs. New challenges have emerged for today’s millennials: over half of all those on zero-hours contracts aged 16-34. READ MORE
Living standards· Incomes· Inequality & poverty The Living Standards Outlook 2018 22 February 2018 by Adam Corlett and George Bangham and David Finch This report projects forwards the real spending power of typical households and the distribution of income to 2022-23. Results incorporate household income data up to 2015-16, what we know about the key drivers of living standards to 2017-18 and the latest economics forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). READ MORE
Living standards· Intergenerational Centre Cross countries: international comparisons of intergenerational trends 19 February 2018 by Daniel Tomlinson and Fahmida Rahman Public concerns about young people’s living standards are shared across high-income countries. This report compares the UK’s generational living standards challenges with those of other high-income economies, focusing on trends in household income and experiences in the labour and housing markets. READ MORE
Household debt· Wealth & assets· Housing An unhealthy interest? Debt distress and the consequences of raising rates 12 February 2018 by Matthew Whittaker Consumer borrowing has been surging over recent months, raising fears that we are storing up more debt-fuelled problems for tomorrow. This note digs into the numbers and focuses on who is taking out all the credit. We consider also how the profile of the UK’s household debt will stand up to increasing interest rates in the coming years. READ MORE
Firms· Labour market Choices, choices… Why do firms use agency workers? 10 February 2018 by Lindsay Judge With the number of agency workers on the up, this piece of research explores why firms use this contingent type of labour rather than directly employed staff. We show that the majority of firms that make use of agency workers still hire them primarily as ‘stop-gaps’,. However, one-third of such firms take a more strategic approach, taking an active business decision to hire agency workers either extensively or exclusively for certain roles. READ MORE
Living standards· Pensions & savings· Wealth & assets· Intergenerational Centre A welfare generation: lifetime welfare transfers between generations 5 February 2018 by George Bangham and David Finch and Toby Phillips This paper updates John Hills’ seminal research on life-cycle welfare transfers between generations. It estimates the extent to which past and future cohorts contribute to the welfare state via taxation and withdraw from its core pillars – education, health and social security – over the course of their lifetimes. READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Counting the hours: two decades of changes in earnings and hours worked 15 January 2018 by Stephen Clarke and George Bangham Economists have raised concerns that the UK’s pay distribution is ‘hollowing out’, as offshoring and automation diminish the number of mid-paid jobs. We show that some hollowing out has occurred, though only among men, and that it is mainly the result of shifts in working hours rather than occupational change. READ MORE
Labour market· Welfare Falling through the cracks: the widening gap between unemployment and benefit statistics 2 January 2018 by Toby Phillips This paper explores the growing group of people who appear to be eligible for benefits but don’t claim support, providing suggestions for how data collection and benefits processes should be improved. READ MORE
Wealth & assets· Tax· Intergenerational Centre The million dollar be-question: inheritances, gifts, and their implications for generational living standards 30 December 2017 by Laura Gardiner This report assesses the role that intergenerational family transfers – inheritances and gifts – play in Britain. It provides a detailed assessment of past gifts and inheritances, and estimates the timing and distribution of future intergenerational transfers of property wealth to the millennial generation. READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Pay The RF Earnings Outlook Q3 2017 27 December 2017 by Stephen Clarke Our quarterly earnings outlook, for 2017 Q3. We argued that, just as the country’s politics were (/are!) in standstill due to Brexit, 2018 was likely to be a ‘standstill’ year on pay. READ MORE
Productivity & industrial strategy· Economic growth Don’t believe the hype: work, robots, history 14 December 2017 by Michael Weatherburn Technology, and resistance to it, in major economic sectors like warehousing has been around longer than we think. We’ve been talking about the past, present and future of our workplaces well beyond recent memory. Don’t believe the hype: our historical memories are extremely fickle. READ MORE
Labour market enforcement· Labour market Time for time-and-a-half? Exploring the evidence and policy options on overtime 12 December 2017 by Conor D’Arcy Our quarterly earnings outlook, for 2017 Q2. Our ‘Spotlight’ piece looks at why a supposedly tight labour market is not delivering higher wage growth. We suggest this is down to the contribution of the inactive population, who are providing a bigger boost to effective supply than it has historically. READ MORE
Living standards· Incomes· Inequality & poverty Unequal results: improving and reconciling the UK’s household income statistics 3 December 2017 by Adam Corlett This briefing note explores different sources of data on household incomes and inequality in the UK. It sets out some of the improvements already planned, and what else needs to be done so that this data continues to inform debate and public policy. READ MORE
Welfare· Intergenerational Centre As good as it gets? The adequacy of retirement income for current and future generations of pensioners 27 November 2017 by David Finch and Laura Gardiner This report assesses pensions adequacy from an intergenerational perspective. We present detailed findings on the adequacy of retirement incomes for recent cohorts of retirees in Great Britain, along with projections of future adequacy both across and within generations. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Freshly Squeezed: Autumn Budget 2017 response 23 November 2017 This paper sets out RF’s overnight response to the 2017 Autumn Budget, using HMT and OBR data and projections to consider what is going on in the public finances and what the outlook is for household living standards. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Productivity & industrial strategy· Public spending· Economy and public finances Revised Statement: productivity, prospects and priorities ahead of the Autumn Budget 13 November 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Our look ahead to the 2017 Autumn Budget, focusing on what sort of public finance outlook the Chancellor might be handed and on what is happening in the economy more generally. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Welfare· Intergenerational Centre A Budget for intergenerational fairness? 10 November 2017 by Laura Gardiner Here we focus on the levers that Chancellors most frequently turn to at Budget time – the taxation of income, and working-age benefits. We demonstrate the intergenerational parameters by which policies should be judged, by assessing the impact of policy options both across and within generations. READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty How unequal is the UK – and should we care? 8 November 2017 by David Willetts David Willetts’s slides from the Royal Statistical Society Cathie Marsh Lecture, exploring recent trends in UK living standards and inequality, specifically inequality between generations and between graduates and non-graduates. READ MORE
Pay· Living Wage Calculating a Living Wage for London and the rest of the UK 6 November 2017 by Conor D’Arcy and David Finch 2017/18 saw a rise in the minimum wage rate to £8.75 in the UK. We set out a method for determining the independently-calculated Living Wage rates in London and the UK. This comes at a time when crucial policy changes put upward pressure on the Living Wage rates. READ MORE
Welfare Universal Remedy: ensuring Universal Credit is fit for purpose 31 October 2017 by David Finch and Daniel Tomlinson and Mike Brewer As Universal Credit’s rollout continues, this report sets out ways in which the payment can be reformed to make it fit for purpose. We look both at design problems, such as the six-week wait, and issues with UC’s adequacy compared to the tax credit system it replaces. READ MORE
Low pay· Labour market· Pay· Cities and regions ‘A-typical’ working day in Greater Manchester 25 October 2017 by Stephen Clarke Greater Manchester has experienced a growth in ‘a-typical’ work in recent years, with implications for pay and progression. In this briefing, we explore the labour market performance of Greater Manchester over recent years, comparing it to other city regions over time. READ MORE
Low pay· Pay The Great Escape? Low pay and progression in the UK’s labour market 19 October 2017 by Conor D’Arcy and David Finch For most low-paid workers, poorly-paid positions are not acting as a first rung on the ladder: it is the only rung. Of all those low paid in 2006 by 2016 only one in six people managed to escape low pay. READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Pay Earnings Outlook Q2 2017 18 October 2017 by Stephen Clarke This Earnings Outlook looks at the second quarter of 2017. This was a period in which we saw the best and worst of the UK labour market. On the one hand, compared to a year earlier real pay fell by 0.5 per cent; yet on the other hand the unemployment rate hit a low not … Continued READ MORE
