Firms· Productivity & industrial strategy· Economic growth Is everybody concentrating? Recent trends in product and labour market concentration in the UK 26 July 2018 by Daniel Tomlinson and Torsten Bell This paper analyses trends in product market and labour market concentration in the UK, to see whether (as is the case in the US) larger firms are accounting for a larger share of economic activity today than in years gone by. READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty The Living Standards Audit 2018 24 July 2018 by Adam Corlett and Stephen Clarke and Conor D’Arcy and John Wood Britain’s weak post-crisis living standards recovery went into reverse last year for the poorest 30 per cent of families. Our analysis shows how important cash benefits like tax credits have been for supporting ‘just about managing’ families and tackling child poverty since the millennium. READ MORE
Living standards· Pay· Inequality & poverty Opportunities Knocked? Exploring pay penalties among the UK’s ethnic minorities 18 July 2018 by Kathleen Henehan and Helena Rose Over the past two decades ethnic minority groups have made substantial gains in relation to education and employment. But in spite of this progress, large pay gaps remain: even after accounting for education, occupation and other key factors, black male graduates are on average paid 17 per cent less than their white male counterparts; Pakistani/Bangladeshi non-graduate men are paid 14% less. READ MORE
Living standards· Cities and regions London Stalling: Half a century of living standards in London 27 June 2018 by Stephen Clarke London’s post-crisis recovery has been similar to that of the rest of the country, in good and bad terms.The city now has an employment rate in line with the UK average but productivity and pay growth have both been sluggish. Where London is unique is that it has a number of looming problems – demographic change, high living costs and inequality – which make the city a particularly challenging place for those on low-incomes. READ MORE
Wealth & assets· Scotland The £1 trillion pie: how wealth is shared across Scotland 22 June 2018 by Conor D’Arcy and Torsten Bell The wealth of Scottish households has grown rapidly in recent years and now exceeds £1 trillion for the first time. But from a living standards perspective, what matters is how that wealth – including property, pensions and savings – is shared. The report explores some of the key inequalities when it comes to wealth in … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances Healthy finances? Options for funding an NHS spending increase 12 June 2018 by George Bangham and Adam Corlett and Matthew Whittaker The National Health Service turned 70 on 5 July 2018, at a time when public concerns about its future were at their highest level in 20 years. This paper looks at different approaches the government could take to deliver real increases in NHS funding over the next Parliament. READ MORE
Low pay· Pay Low Pay Britain 2018 18 May 2018 by Conor D’Arcy Our annual look at low pay, for 2018. With low pay falling, we suggest policy makers should focus on three challenges: progression (low paid workers lack thereof), power (likewise), and the gender pay gap. READ MORE
Living standards· Intergenerational Centre A new generational contract: the final report of the Intergenerational Commission 8 May 2018 Families have adjusted to the 21st century’s intergenerational challenges, and now as a society we need to do so too. We have presented a policy agenda that addresses the concerns of both old and young, and in so doing rebuilds the intergenerational contract. READ MORE
Living standards· Wealth & assets· Intergenerational Centre The new wealth of our nation: the case for a citizen’s inheritance 8 May 2018 by George Bangham This paper makes the case for a citizen’s inheritance – a £10,000 lump-sum payment made available to every young person when they reach the age of 25 – to address some of the key risks they and as part of a policy programme to renew the intergenerational contract that underpins society READ MORE
Wealth & assets· Tax· Intergenerational Centre Passing on: options for reforming inheritance taxation 2 May 2018 by Adam Corlett Inheritances are growing rapidly in importance at the same time as fiscal pressures mount. But the current inheritance tax system manages to raise relatively little while also being especially unpopular. This paper proposes a Lifetime Receipts Tax that would address Inheritance Tax’s problems while also raising more revenue and encouraging individuals to spread their wealth more widely. READ MORE
Labour market· Skills· Intergenerational Centre Technical Fault: Options for promoting human capital growth 27 April 2018 by Kathleen Henehan and Anna Vignoles This is the 20th paper for the Intergenerational Commission, focused on the pace of and inequality within education attainment. It proposes a ‘twin-track’ approach to reforming the skills landscape in order to restart generational progress on human capital: both ‘fixing’ the technical (non-A level/university) education offer for future generations of young people, and providing additional support for those lower-qualified young adults who have already left school. READ MORE
Housing· Intergenerational Centre Home improvements: action to address the housing challenges faced by young people 17 April 2018 by Lindsay Judge and Daniel Tomlinson How we can tackle one of the biggest issues for young people in 21st century Britain: the housing crisis? In this report we move beyond a diagnosis of the problem to set out a series of policy options relating to three key areas: insecurity in the private rented sector, falling home ownership rates for young people and a long-term lack of house building. READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Pay The RF Earnings Outlook Q4 2017 28 March 2018 by Stephen Clarke In Q4 2017 the pay squeeze for that year looked set to dissipate and employment rates continued to rise. But, taking a longer view, weaker than expected productivity growth suggests that the outlook for real pay growth is likely to remain subdued. READ MORE
Housing· Tax· Intergenerational Centre Home affairs: options for reforming property taxation 20 March 2018 by Adam Corlett and Laura Gardiner This paper assesses options for reforming property taxation, with a focus on the existing council tax system which now bears far too much resemblance to the unpopular poll tax it was brought in to replace. It sets out a range of options for making property tax fairer, simpler and more economically efficient. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Sugar rush: Spring Statement response 14 March 2018 This paper sets out RF’s overnight response to the 2018 Spring Statement, using HMT and OBR data and projections to consider what is going on in the public finances and what the outlook is for household living standards. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances A man for all seasons? What the Chancellor can expect in the OBR’s Spring outlook 8 March 2018 by Matthew Whittaker Consumer borrowing has been surging over recent months, raising fears that we are storing up more debt-fuelled problems for tomorrow. This note digs into the numbers and focuses on who is taking out all the credit. We consider also how the profile of the UK’s household debt will stand up to increasing interest rates in the coming years. READ MORE
Labour market· Intergenerational Centre The kids aren’t alright: a new approach to tackle the challenges faced by young people in the UK labour market 26 February 2018 by Stephen Clarke and Conor D’Arcy A bold new approach is required to help the one in three millennials who say they’ve been held back from moving jobs. New challenges have emerged for today’s millennials: over half of all those on zero-hours contracts aged 16-34. READ MORE
Living standards· Incomes· Inequality & poverty The Living Standards Outlook 2018 22 February 2018 by Adam Corlett and George Bangham and David Finch This report projects forwards the real spending power of typical households and the distribution of income to 2022-23. Results incorporate household income data up to 2015-16, what we know about the key drivers of living standards to 2017-18 and the latest economics forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). READ MORE
Living standards· Intergenerational Centre Cross countries: international comparisons of intergenerational trends 19 February 2018 by Daniel Tomlinson and Fahmida Rahman Public concerns about young people’s living standards are shared across high-income countries. This report compares the UK’s generational living standards challenges with those of other high-income economies, focusing on trends in household income and experiences in the labour and housing markets. READ MORE
Household debt· Wealth & assets· Housing An unhealthy interest? Debt distress and the consequences of raising rates 12 February 2018 by Matthew Whittaker Consumer borrowing has been surging over recent months, raising fears that we are storing up more debt-fuelled problems for tomorrow. This note digs into the numbers and focuses on who is taking out all the credit. We consider also how the profile of the UK’s household debt will stand up to increasing interest rates in the coming years. READ MORE
Firms· Labour market Choices, choices… Why do firms use agency workers? 10 February 2018 by Lindsay Judge With the number of agency workers on the up, this piece of research explores why firms use this contingent type of labour rather than directly employed staff. We show that the majority of firms that make use of agency workers still hire them primarily as ‘stop-gaps’,. However, one-third of such firms take a more strategic approach, taking an active business decision to hire agency workers either extensively or exclusively for certain roles. READ MORE
Living standards· Pensions & savings· Wealth & assets· Intergenerational Centre A welfare generation: lifetime welfare transfers between generations 5 February 2018 by George Bangham and David Finch and Toby Phillips This paper updates John Hills’ seminal research on life-cycle welfare transfers between generations. It estimates the extent to which past and future cohorts contribute to the welfare state via taxation and withdraw from its core pillars – education, health and social security – over the course of their lifetimes. READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Counting the hours: two decades of changes in earnings and hours worked 15 January 2018 by Stephen Clarke and George Bangham Economists have raised concerns that the UK’s pay distribution is ‘hollowing out’, as offshoring and automation diminish the number of mid-paid jobs. We show that some hollowing out has occurred, though only among men, and that it is mainly the result of shifts in working hours rather than occupational change. READ MORE
Labour market· Welfare Falling through the cracks: the widening gap between unemployment and benefit statistics 2 January 2018 by Toby Phillips This paper explores the growing group of people who appear to be eligible for benefits but don’t claim support, providing suggestions for how data collection and benefits processes should be improved. READ MORE
Wealth & assets· Tax· Intergenerational Centre The million dollar be-question: inheritances, gifts, and their implications for generational living standards 30 December 2017 by Laura Gardiner This report assesses the role that intergenerational family transfers – inheritances and gifts – play in Britain. It provides a detailed assessment of past gifts and inheritances, and estimates the timing and distribution of future intergenerational transfers of property wealth to the millennial generation. READ MORE
