Welfare Cutbacks ahead Considering the impact of proposed changes to disability benefits on living standards and the public finances 13 October 2024 by Mike Brewer and Louise Murphy The Chancellor has already come under pressure for making one welfare cut to help her address the challenging fiscal outlook in the run up to her first Budget – but there are more in store due to spending commitments inherited from the previous Government. Specifically, if the Government goes ahead with changes to the Work … Continued READ MORE
Pensions & savings Perfectly adequate? Revisiting pensions adequacy 20 years after the Pensions Commission 10 October 2024 by Molly Broome and Ian Mulheirn In 2002, the Labour Government established the Pensions Commission to review the UK’s private pensions system and make recommendations for reform. Twenty years on from the Commission’s landmark first report, the auto-enrolment pension regime it proposed has finally come to fruition, revolutionising pension coverage in the UK. But alongside the rollout of this pioneering policy, … Continued READ MORE
Brexit & trade EU-turn Resetting the UK-EU relationship through strategic dynamic alignment 9 October 2024 by Sophie Hale The Government has pledged to reset its relationship with the EU, promising growth dividends from stronger ties, regulatory cooperation and enhanced trade opportunities for UK firms. Despite this EU-friendly rhetoric, Labour’s “red lines” remain firm, limiting its ability to deliver economic growth by delivering substantially different trading arrangements. But by focusing on practical adjustments without … Continued READ MORE
Fiscal policy Over-ruled? Assessing the options for changing the fiscal rules 4 October 2024 by Cara Pacitti and James Smith Although the Chancellor said she would stick with the previous Government’s much-criticised rule of reducing public debt in the fifth year of the forecast, Rachel Reeves’s conference speech has sparked a debate about whether the fiscal rules should be changed to allow the Government to borrow more. Three options have been mooted for changing the … Continued READ MORE
Inequality & poverty· Welfare Cold comfort Mitigating the Winter Fuel Payment cut 1 October 2024 by Alex Clegg and Jonathan Marshall The announcement that Winter Fuel Payments are to be restricted to recipients of Pension Credit or similar means-tested benefits has sparked controversy[1]. The Government and its defenders point to the lack of sense, in these straitened times, of making fuel payments to all pensioners when the majority do not need them. Opponents, however, highlight the … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Skills Labour Market Outlook Q3 2024 The Growth and Skills Levy 28 September 2024 by Sofia Corcoran and Louise Murphy In its first few months in office, the new Labour Government has announced a host of new skills policies. [1] Arguably the most high-profile of these is the planned new “flexible” Growth and Skills Levy, replacing the previous Government’s Apprenticeship Levy. There are good reasons to consider changing the Levy: apprenticeships aren’t currently doing a … Continued READ MORE
Economic growth The growth mindset Sizing up the Government’s growth agenda 19 September 2024 by Emily Fry and Greg Thwaites This report evaluates the UK government’s growth agenda, focusing on policies in infrastructure, housing, and trade. It highlights potential productivity gains and suggests broader reforms to meet ambitious growth targets, aiming to position the UK as the fastest-growing G7 economy. READ MORE
Housing Building blocks Assessing the role of planning reform in meeting the Government’s housing targets 12 September 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Jonathan Marshall and Cara Pacitti The Government has prioritised planning reform as its key policy lever to deliver an ambitious target of 1.5 million additional homes by the end of this Parliament. This note explores the extent to which the proposed reforms to the planning system will help reach this target, while also highlighting other constraints on housing supply that … Continued READ MORE
Tax Revenue and reform What tax changes could – and should – we see in Autumn Budget 2024? 10 September 2024 by Adam Corlett Ahead of Autumn Budget 2024, this report explores some of the tax policy choices that may face the new Chancellor, and sets out what reforms could best raise revenue while also improving the design of the tax system. There are many good reasons to expect a range of tax policy changes at this Budget. It … Continued READ MORE
Low pay Low Pay Britain 2024 Examining the Government’s proposed employment reforms 5 September 2024 by Nye Cominetti The Government is planning the largest set of workplace reforms in a generation, with plans to overhaul multiple areas of employment policy. These have the potential to make real inroads in the problem of insecurity at work, and would particularly benefit low-paid workers, who bear the brunt of labour market insecurity. The Government is yet … Continued READ MORE
Pensions & savings Calculating a Living Pension: the 2024 update 4 September 2024 by Molly Broome This report sets out the method through which the Living Pension standard – a voluntary savings target that aims to help workers build up a pension pot that will provide enough income to meet basic everyday needs in retirement – is calculated by the Resolution Foundation, and overseen by the Living Wage Commission on behalf … Continued READ MORE
Net zero Blowing away the competition What to make of Britain’s 2024 renewable energy auction results 3 September 2024 by Jonathan Marshall The latest round of renewable energy auctions procured a record 9.6 gigawatts (GW) of low-carbon energy, of which the majority (5 GW) was offshore wind. This represents a much-needed acceleration towards the new Government’s ambitious decarbonisation targets and was essential given the failure of last year’s auction. This is good news: as well as quickly … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Living standards The Living Standards Outlook 2024 29 August 2024 by Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett This is our sixth annual Living Standards Outlook. It provides an assessment of incomes, poverty and inequality as things stand in 2024-25, and projections up to 2029-30 using economic forecasts and policy assumptions inherited by the new Government. It also explores how three scenarios, based on an optimistic outcome for earnings growth and two illustrative … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Growing pressures Exploring trends in children’s disability benefits 17 August 2024 by Louise Murphy Over the last decade, the number of under-16s in receipt of Disability Living Allowance (DLA) in England and Wales has doubled, reaching 682,000 in 2023, equivalent to one-in-sixteen children. This growing caseload has been driven almost entirely by awards made to children whose main condition is either a learning difficulty, behavioural disorder or attention deficit … Continued READ MORE
Measuring up? Exploring data discrepancies in the Labour Force Survey 13 August 2024 by Adam Corlett and Hannah Slaughter Since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, significant issues have emerged with the UK’s official labour market data. The Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) main data source on the labour market, the Labour Force Survey (LFS), estimates that there are over a million fewer workers than the trends seen in other data sources suggest. And … Continued READ MORE
Housing Housing Outlook Q2 2024 7 August 2024 by Felicia Odamtten Welcome to this quarter’s Housing Outlook, where we investigate changes in the number and distribution of bedrooms in England over time, evolving norms around the number of bedrooms households require, and the policy challenges in this space. [i] Our findings reveal that, over the past 30 years, the number of households in England reporting … Continued READ MORE
Inequality & poverty· Cities and regions Uneven ground Assessing the state of UK geographic economic inequality facing the new Government 6 August 2024 by Charlie McCurdy The new Government inherits an economy marked by 16 years of stagnation and high levels of inequality, with regional inequalities among the most important. This briefing note assesses the state of geographic economic inequality facing the new Government. In the world of social science there are heated debates about which measure to focus on, but … Continued READ MORE
Wealth & assets Wealth check What the new Government needs to know about household wealth as it navigates the challenges ahead 28 July 2024 by Simon Pittaway British household wealth has been on a rollercoaster ride in recent years. In Q1 2024, it was estimated to be worth more than six times GDP (630 per cent), more than 50 per cent higher than the last time Labour came into power (410 per cent in 1997). The key driver of this huge rise … Continued READ MORE
Net zero· Productivity & industrial strategy Net zeroing in on investment Priorities for the new Government in delivering a fair transition 22 July 2024 by Jonathan Marshall Cutting carbon in the second half of the 2020s is all about investment, but high upfront costs and wider economic woes mean these could be insurmountable for many. This paper outlines priorities to ensure this transition is navigated as fairly as possible. READ MORE
General Election 2024· Living standards Hard times Assessing household incomes since 2010 28 June 2024 by Adam Corlett and Lalitha Try This briefing note is part of the Resolution Foundation’s ‘Need to Know Election 2024’ series and examines how income growth, poverty and inequality have changed over the last Parliament and since 2010. At the General Election, living standards growth should be on the agenda for any party wishing to form the next government. This is … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Living standards· Intergenerational Centre Old age tendencies The impact of tax and benefit changes on intergenerational fairness ahead of the 2024 general election 26 June 2024 by Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Sophie Hale and Charlie McCurdy and Lalitha Try In this Spotlight we look at the impact of spending, tax and benefit decisions taken since 2010 through the lens of intergenerational fairness. What stands out in this context is the increase in the generosity of the State Pension, which has led to a £44 billion increase in spending, benefiting older age groups. By contrast, … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Labour market Job done? Assessing the labour market since 2010 and the challenges for the next government 25 June 2024 by Nye Cominetti and Hannah Slaughter The record on the labour market since 2010 is mixed – strong employment growth (albeit a partial reversal post-pandemic), alongside a 14-year real wage stagnation. On their plans for the future, the Conservative party would stick with the status quo, while Labour propose the biggest overhaul of labour market policy in a generation, including a higher minimum wage and a ‘day one’ right to protection from unfair dismissal. READ MORE
General Election 2024· Public spending· Welfare Under strain Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits 20 June 2024 by Lindsay Judge and Louise Murphy The benefits bill is frequently the subject of intense political debate. But since the pandemic, working-age health-related benefits have moved centre-stage in these discussions, as policy makers aim to understand what sits behind the historical rise in claims, and to contain future pressures too. In this briefing note – part of our Election 2024 work … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Housing· Political parties and elections Home truths Putting housing policy in context for the 2024 general election 19 June 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Lindsay Judge and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti The housing offers from both main parties for the 2024 general election are similar in many respects, suggesting that the ‘penny has dropped’ when it comes to boosting housing supply, supporting would-be homeowners, and improving the energy efficiency of our country’s housing stock. As well as a broad consensus forming around some housing policy areas, … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Tax· Welfare· Political parties and elections Growing for gold? Analysing the tax and spend package of the 2024 Labour Manifesto 14 June 2024 by Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Emily Fry and Tara Goatley and Charlie McCurdy and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Lalitha Try In launching its manifesto, the Labour Party put the emphasis on efforts to boost growth. But more eye-catching were promises of some of the biggest changes to the labour market in a generation, with the aim of improving the quality of work. Proposals here included new employment rights, tougher labour-market enforcement, and an innovative approach … Continued READ MORE
