Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Low pay· Pay The Resolution Foundation Earnings Outlook Q4 2018 30 March 2019 by Nye Cominetti Our quarterly earnings outlook, for Q4 2018. With the minimum wage now 20 years old, we chart its impact on low pay over two decades. We also look at the impact of the post-2016 increases, and prospects for the wage floor over the next few years. READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty· Scotland Wrong direction: can Scotland hit its child poverty targets? 22 March 2019 by Adam Corlett The Child Poverty (Scotland) Act 2017 created targets for the reduction of child poverty, in a welcome attempt to ensure that poverty reduction remained a policy priority. But agreeing to reduce poverty is easier than doing it. What are the prospects for the Scottish government hitting its goals? READ MORE
Labour market· Skills Pick up the pace: the slowdown in educational attainment growth and its widespread effects 18 March 2019 by Kathleen Henehan This paper highlights that while improvements to the country’s human capital stock have been driven by increasingly educated cohorts of young people flowing into the labour market, the pace of growth in young people’s educational attainment has more than halved since the start of the 21st century. This ‘slowdown’ brings with it worrying implications for productivity and living standards. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Super, smashing, great: Spring Statement 2019 response 14 March 2019 This paper sets out RF’s overnight response to the 2019 Spring Statement, using HMT and OBR data and projections to consider what is going on in the public finances and what the outlook is for household living standards. READ MORE
Labour market· Low pay· Cities and regions Low pay in Greater Manchester: A report for the Greater Manchester Independent Prosperity Review 5 March 2019 by Conor D’Arcy and Laura Gardiner and Fahmida Rahman In this report, we provide an in-depth look at low pay in Greater Manchester. We explore who is in the low-paid workforce, the jobs they work in, their routes out of low pay, the dynamism of the local labour market and the role of employers. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Spring Forward or Fall Back? The questions facing the UK economy ahead of the Spring Statement 2019 4 March 2019 by Matthew Whittaker Our look ahead to the 2019 Spring Statement, focusing on what sort of public finance outlook the Chancellor might be handed and on what is happening in the economy more generally. READ MORE
Firms· Labour market· Productivity & industrial strategy· Economic growth Sorry, we’re closed: Understanding the impact of retail’s decline on people and places 27 February 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson and Laura Gardiner Headlines about shop closures might give the impression that retail’s decline is a recent phenomenon, but retail’s share of employment has been falling for 15 years. This report digs behind this long-run trend, driven by changes in what we spend and how we spend it, and focuses in on what really matters when it comes to economic change: people and places. READ MORE
Living standards The Living Standards Outlook 2019 20 February 2019 by Adam Corlett Detailed data about household incomes comes with a considerable lag, and the UK’s main economic forecasts only tell us about averages. Our second dedicated Living Standards Outlook combines survey data, economic forecasts, the government’s tax and benefit policies, and more, to project household income growth for different groups. READ MORE
Living standards· Wellbeing and mental health Happy now? Lessons for economic policy makers from a focus on subjective well-being 13 February 2019 by George Bangham How happy are people in the United Kingdom? How satisfied are they with their lives? In the Resolution Foundation’s first detailed analysis of subjective wellbeing data, this paper takes a wide-ranging look at what it means for economic policymakers concerned with raising the nation’s living standards. READ MORE
Living standards· Brexit & trade· Economy and public finances Counting the cost: UK living standards since the 2016 referendum 11 February 2019 by James Smith Household incomes are around £1,500 year lower today than they were expected to be before the Brexit referendum – with the UK having experienced the sharpest income growth slowdown of any economy for which the OECD publish data. This note focuses on the UK’s recent economic performance, going beyond the usual focus on GDP to look at the impact on household living standards across the UK. READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Pay The Resolution Foundation Earnings Outlook Q3 2018 6 February 2019 by Nye Cominetti Our quarterly earnings outlook, for Q3 2018. We look ahead to 2019, and ask whether recent improvements in pay growth will continue throughout the year (the view of the Bank of England) or will fall away (the view of the Office for Budget Responsibility). READ MORE
Labour market· Low pay· Pay Atypical approaches: Options to support workers with insecure incomes 21 January 2019 by Conor D’Arcy and Fahmida Rahman There has been much debate about the certainty of income that atypical work provides, and whether the rights of workers are being consistently upheld. This report explores these issues, looking beyond a minimum wage premium, at how other high-income countries have sought to reduce one-sided flexibility in the labour market. READ MORE
Labour market Setting the record straight: How record employment has changed the UK 14 January 2019 by Stephen Clarke and Nye Cominetti This report looks at Britain’s record employment rate, and the impact that rising employment has had on different groups within society. We bust some myths too, showing that the increase in employment is not all about London and zero-hour contracts. READ MORE
Wealth & assets· Social mobility· Housing· Intergenerational Centre House of the rising son (or daughter): the impact of parental wealth on their children’s homeownership 4 December 2018 by Stephen Clarke and John Wood The rise of the so-called Bank of Mum and Dad (BOMAD) is much-discussed but until now there has been little analysis of the strength of the relationship between parental support and people’s chances of becoming homeowners. This paper fills this gap: we analyse the association between the property wealth held by people’s parents and their own, stripping out the impact that other factors (earnings, education, etc) have on homeownership. READ MORE
Labour market The good, the bad and the ugly: the experience of agency workers and the policy response 30 November 2018 by Lindsay Judge The final output from a two year work progamme, this report presents both qualitative and quantative research investigating the world of agency workers. We show how the agency worker experience is plural, with good, bad and ugly practice encountered by many. We also reflect on how policy makers can best respond to the complex reality that we reveal. READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Pay The Resolution Foundation Earnings Outlook Q2 2018 13 November 2018 by Stephen Clarke and Nye Cominetti Our quarterly earnings outlook for Q2 2018. We focus on the decline in regional job mobility (people moving region for work) and argue that this is due to structural rather than cyclical trends – potentially due to the rise of remote working, and fewer people working in large firms with multiple locations. READ MORE
Welfare Back in Credit? Universal Credit after Budget 2018 12 November 2018 by David Finch and Laura Gardiner This briefing note focuses on the implications of recent changes to Universal Credit – in particular the £1,000 increase in work allowances announced in Budget 2018 – for the number of winners and losers from the switch to this new benefit system, for its generosity and for its impact on work incentives. READ MORE
Pay· Living Wage Calculating a Living Wage for London and the rest of the UK 5 November 2018 by Conor D’Arcy and David Finch This report sets out the method through which the Living Wage rates in London and the rest of the UK were calculated for the 2018/19 rates. Resolution Foundation undertakes this calculation on behalf of the Living Wage Foundation. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Welfare How to spend it: Autumn 2018 Budget response 30 October 2018 by Matthew Whittaker This paper sets out RF’s overnight response to the 2018 Autumn Budget, using HMT and OBR data and projections to consider what is going on in the public finances and what the outlook is for household living standards. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Welfare Tunnel vision: Autumn Budget 2018 and ‘ending austerity’ 24 October 2018 by Matthew Whittaker Our look ahead to the 2018 Autumn Budget, focusing on what sort of public finance outlook the Chancellor might be handed and on what is happening in the economy more generally. READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Irregular Payments: Assessing the breadth and depth of month to month earnings volatility 15 October 2018 by Daniel Tomlinson This research addresses the question of earnings volatility, unearthing striking findings about the lived experience of work – and the pay we receive for it – in the UK today. This report makes use of anonymised transaction data from over seven million Lloyds Banking Group (LBG) accounts in order to demonstrate the breadth and depth of changes in pay from month to month. READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Count the pennies: Explaining a decade of lost pay growth 9 October 2018 by Stephen Clarke and Paul Gregg This paper gets to the bottom of why real wages are still 3 per cent below their level before the crisis. It both explains why the wage squeeze was so much worse in the UK compared to other advanced economies and why the recovery since 2014 has been so sluggish. READ MORE
Welfare The benefits of moving: Managing the transition of existing claimants to Universal Credit 6 September 2018 by David Finch This note considers how best to avoid further implementation difficulties over the course of the managed migration of existing benefit claimants onto Universal Credit. It provides recommendations intended to boost Universal Credit’s chances of boosting benefit take-up – one of its key original objectives. READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty An unexpected cut: Revisiting the Diamond Commission and assessing inequality in post-war Britain 10 August 2018 by Tom Kelsey In 1974, the government established the Diamond Commision on the Distribution of Income and Wealth. This note looks at the Commission’s findings and considers how Britain has changed in the intervening years. It looks at the impact the findings had on policy and public debate in the country and reflects on what can be learnt by those trying to secure a more equal Britain today. This project was undertaken as part of the Historians in Residence programme, which is based at King’s College, London. READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Pay The RF Earnings Outlook Q1 2018 2 August 2018 by Stephen Clarke Our quarterly earnings outlook, for Q1 2018. The outlook explores whether the current pace of wage growth is as good as it gets. Despite signs of improvement, annual growth in weekly wages is almost 1.5 percentage points lower than the pre-crisis average. READ MORE
