Macroeconomic policy Quantitative (displ)easing? Does QE work and how should it be used next time? 7 September 2019 by Jack Leslie and Fahmida Rahman and James Smith and Joe Gagnon After the financial crisis, central banks purchased massive amounts of long-term bonds to stimulate economies. These purchases have come to be known as quantitative easing (QE) and have been hugely controversial – barely a third (37 per cent) of UK Members of Parliament, when polled, support its use in future. In theory, QE stimulates the … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Rounding up Putting the 2019 Spending Round into context 4 September 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson and Torsten Bell and Matthew Whittaker and Adam Corlett In his September 2019 Spending Round the Chancellor rightly declared he was “turning the page” on austerity and “writing a new chapter in our public services”. But he has also ripped up his own fiscal rulebook, almost certainly breaking the fiscal ‘mandate’ in the near-term and casting significant doubt over his ability to keep debt falling as a share of GDP over the coming years. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Breaking the rules Analysing the credibility of the Chancellor’s commitment to keep to his fiscal rules 31 August 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson and Torsten Bell The Chancellor is shortly to deliver the first spending round (SR) of the post-austerity era. Although he is only setting departmental budgets for 2020-21, this event will mark a turning point in our political and economic debates as it brings to an end almost 10 years of austerity. The politics of this SR are relatively … Continued READ MORE
Productivity & industrial strategy· Pay· Economic growth Follow the money Exploring the link between UK growth and workers’ pay packets 30 August 2019 by Matthew Whittaker This briefing note unpicks the relationship between productivity and pay growth, looking at a variety of factors that influence pay growth for different groups of employees in the UK – from trends in the labour share to terms of trade movements, and from the role of employer pension contributions to the impact of changes in working patterns. READ MORE
Demographics· Living standards· Pay· Intergenerational Centre Mapping millennials’ living standards 29 August 2019 by Maja Gustafsson Intergenerational progress – the idea that each successive cohort should have higher living standards than predecessors at the same age – has slowed down markedly for today’s young adults. This puts their experience in stark contrast to the rapid cohort-on-cohort improvements in standards of living up until those born in the 1970s. Because many people … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Skills Trading up or trading off? Understanding recent changes to England’s apprenticeships system 24 August 2019 by Kathleen Henehan In 2017 there was overhaul to the apprenticeships system in England: large firms were required to pay 0.5 per cent of their wage bill into an apprenticeship levy, while regulations on training and delivery were firmed up. Two years on, this briefing note takes stock of the system, looking at what’s changed, why and where … Continued READ MORE
Fiscal policy· Macroeconomic policy A problem shared? What can we learn from past recessions about the impact of the next across the income distribution? 5 August 2019 by James Smith and Cara Pacitti While the received wisdom from the 1980s and 1990s recessions was that those at the bottom of the income distribution suffer most during severe downturns. But this was less obvious in the aftermath of the financial crisis. So this briefing note looks at what lessons we can learn from that episode about the distributional impact … Continued READ MORE
Inequality & poverty· Wealth & assets· Scotland Taking stock Report for the Scottish Poverty and Inequality Commission 30 July 2019 by George Bangham and Lindsay Judge There has been a growing appreciation in recent years that living standards are determined not just by income (the flow of money into a household) but also by wealth (the stock of assets a household owns). Wealth can take various forms: it can be held in financial instruments (for example, a savings account or as … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Low pay· Pay Earnings Outlook Q1 2019 29 July 2019 by Nye Cominetti and Jack Leslie In our Earnings Outlook for 2019 Q1, we explore two big changes in the labour market over the past two decades: the rise in self-employment and the introduction and uprating of the minimum wage. Is there a connection between these trends? View all Earnings Outlooks. READ MORE
Living standards The Living Standards Audit 2019 17 July 2019 by Adam Corlett and Stephen Clarke and Charlie McCurdy and Fahmida Rahman and Matthew Whittaker In the tenth edition of our annual Living Standards Audit, we examine both recent and longer-term trends in UK living standards. We consider how incomes have changed and for whom, and this year we dig deeper into what economic trends have driven those changes over the past 25 years. READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy Failing to plan = planning to fail The risk of recessions and the importance of macroeconomic policy in limiting the damage they cause 14 July 2019 by James Smith There is a relatively high risk that the UK will experience a recession in the next few years, bringing with it significant and lasting damage. Macroeconomic policy will once again need to play its part in mitigating this damage. But the legacy of the financial crisis looks likely to limit its power, making it all the more important to open up the debate about what is possible. READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty· Cities and regions Mapping gaps Geographic inequality in productivity and living standards 11 July 2019 by Stephen Clarke Regional inequality is a hot topic, particularly since the EU referendum exposed huge voting divides between London, Scotland and Northern Ireland, and the rest of the UK. This report examines the relative economic performance of UK regions and nations since the 1960s, and the extent to which this has driven differences in household living standards. READ MORE
Intergenerational Centre An intergenerational audit for the UK 2019 20 June 2019 by Laura Gardiner and George Bangham and Stephen Clarke and Fahmida Rahman and Lindsay Judge and Daniel Tomlinson Our Intergenerational audit for the UK takes stock of generational living standards differences in Britain according to the latest data. It does this by considering living standards within four domains: jobs, skills and pay; housing costs and security; taxes, benefits and household income; and wealth and assets. READ MORE
Wealth & assets· Housing· Intergenerational Centre Game of Homes: The rise of multiple property ownership in Great Britain 15 June 2019 by George Bangham Additional property wealth is a big deal in Britain today. One-in-nine adults own some, and its combined value is almost £1 trillion. By value, it makes up one-sixth of all property wealth. READ MORE
Labour market· Housing· Intergenerational Centre Moving matters Housing costs and labour market mobility 6 June 2019 by Lindsay Judge Moving matters for living standards. Taking a new job in a different firm has a larger pay uplift than simply being promoted , and moving to a more productive area comes with an even bigger pay premium. In this note we look at why young people are moving jobs and homes less than in the past, and explore the extent to which diverging housing costs lies behind this trend. READ MORE
Low pay· Labour market· Pay· Living Wage Low Pay Britain 2019 30 May 2019 by Nye Cominetti and Kathleen Henehan and Stephen Clarke This is our ninth annual report on low pay. This edition focuses on the minimum wage, which recently turned 20. It analyses the extent to which the minimum wage has reduced the proportion of the working-age population in low pay. It also looks to the future, asking how fast the minimum wage can boost wages for the lowest earners while managing the inevitable risks to employment. READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty· Intergenerational Centre The generation of poverty: Poverty over the life course for different generations 22 May 2019 by Fahmida Rahman Poverty is an age-old problem, but its prevalence has shifted greatly over time. As inequality grew rapidly throughout the 1980s, relative poverty grew with it, peaking at 25 per cent in the mid-1990s. READ MORE
Living standards· Intergenerational Centre Growing Pains: the impact of leaving education during a recession on earnings and employment 13 May 2019 by Stephen Clarke This report looks at the fortunes of the “crisis cohort”: those who left education between 2008 and 2011. By analysing outcomes for those unfortunate enough to enter the labour market in the aftermath of the 2008-09 recession, this paper estimates how severe an impact the downturn had on people who left education in its midst, and how long-lasting these effects were. READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Low pay· Labour market· Pay The Resolution Foundation Earnings Outlook Q4 2018 30 March 2019 by Nye Cominetti Our quarterly earnings outlook, for Q4 2018. With the minimum wage now 20 years old, we chart its impact on low pay over two decades. We also look at the impact of the post-2016 increases, and prospects for the wage floor over the next few years. READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty· Scotland Wrong direction: can Scotland hit its child poverty targets? 22 March 2019 by Adam Corlett The Child Poverty (Scotland) Act 2017 created targets for the reduction of child poverty, in a welcome attempt to ensure that poverty reduction remained a policy priority. But agreeing to reduce poverty is easier than doing it. What are the prospects for the Scottish government hitting its goals? READ MORE
Labour market· Skills Pick up the pace: the slowdown in educational attainment growth and its widespread effects 18 March 2019 by Kathleen Henehan This paper highlights that while improvements to the country’s human capital stock have been driven by increasingly educated cohorts of young people flowing into the labour market, the pace of growth in young people’s educational attainment has more than halved since the start of the 21st century. This ‘slowdown’ brings with it worrying implications for productivity and living standards. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Super, smashing, great: Spring Statement 2019 response 14 March 2019 This paper sets out RF’s overnight response to the 2019 Spring Statement, using HMT and OBR data and projections to consider what is going on in the public finances and what the outlook is for household living standards. READ MORE
Labour market· Low pay· Cities and regions Low pay in Greater Manchester: A report for the Greater Manchester Independent Prosperity Review 5 March 2019 by Conor D’Arcy and Laura Gardiner and Fahmida Rahman In this report, we provide an in-depth look at low pay in Greater Manchester. We explore who is in the low-paid workforce, the jobs they work in, their routes out of low pay, the dynamism of the local labour market and the role of employers. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Spring Forward or Fall Back? The questions facing the UK economy ahead of the Spring Statement 2019 4 March 2019 by Matthew Whittaker Our look ahead to the 2019 Spring Statement, focusing on what sort of public finance outlook the Chancellor might be handed and on what is happening in the economy more generally. READ MORE
Firms· Productivity & industrial strategy· Labour market· Economic growth Sorry, we’re closed: Understanding the impact of retail’s decline on people and places 27 February 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson and Laura Gardiner Headlines about shop closures might give the impression that retail’s decline is a recent phenomenon, but retail’s share of employment has been falling for 15 years. This report digs behind this long-run trend, driven by changes in what we spend and how we spend it, and focuses in on what really matters when it comes to economic change: people and places. READ MORE
