Covid-19· Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Pay Earnings Outlook Q4 2019 How should minimum wage policy respond to the current economic crisis? 28 March 2020 by Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb Usually in the Earnings Outlook we summarise the latest developments in pay and employment and use these to look forwards, with the trends moving slowly enough that the lag in our data is not too much of a problem. But with so much having changed so quickly, our normal indicators now serve as a guide … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Macroeconomic policy Helicopters on standby? With rates at all-time lows, the Bank of England needs a different playbook for this crisis 26 March 2020 by James Smith and Tony Yates With a big recession on the way, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee would normally be unveiling measures to support the economy today, and this piece would be discussing what they’ve done. But we are not in normal times. Instead, the Bank of England does not have the option of cutting rates in the … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Safeguarding governments’ financial health during coronavirus What can policymakers learn from past viral outbreaks? 25 March 2020 by Richard Hughes In the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, governments have taken unprecedented steps to protect the health of their citizens and support their economies. They now need to take extraordinary steps to safeguard their own financial health through what could be a protracted period of economic disruption necessary to contain and eradicate the virus. This paper … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Incomes· Welfare Next steps to support family incomes in the face of the coronavirus crisis 25 March 2020 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Laura Gardiner and Karl Handscomb and Daniel Tomlinson The Government has set out an unprecedented package of support for family incomes, including paying 80 per cent of the wages of employees who currently have no work, via its Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme. Delivering that scheme should be the top priority, given its crucial role in preventing a very steep rise in unemployment and … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Firms· Living standards· Economy and public finances· Welfare Doing what it takes Protecting firms and families from the economic impact of coronavirus 19 March 2020 by Torsten Bell and Laura Gardiner and Daniel Tomlinson The coronavirus health crisis is now a full-blown economic crisis, and one that may last for much more than a few months. Firms will go bust and unemployment will rise. The majority of this economic damage will be driven not by the direct impact of coronavirus itself, but by the necessary measures – such as social distancing – that we put in place to respond to it. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending Spring Budget 2020 response 11 March 2020 by Resolution Foundation Analysis Britain’s new Chancellor gave the country a big Budget, combining a larger-than-expected response to coronavirus with a resetting of the Government and Conservative party’s approach to managing the public finances. A large appetite for increasing public spending has been combined with far less appetite to raise taxes. The result is a Conservative Chancellor now planning … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Budgets & fiscal events A Budget action plan The economic response to the coronavirus 8 March 2020 by Tony Yates and Torsten Bell and Laura Gardiner and Richard Hughes and James Smith Although secondary to addressing the health consequences, it is crucial that policy makers act swiftly to prevent the outbreak of coronavirus becoming an economic crisis, too. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Euston, we have a problem Is Britain ready for an infrastructure revolution? 4 March 2020 by Richard Hughes and Lindsay Judge and Cara Pacitti and Andrew Bailey The centrepiece of the new government’s first Budget is expected to be an ‘infrastructure revolution’ – spending at least an additional £100 billion over the next five years on public investment. This is significant because such spending has the potential to support economic growth, improve living standards and protect the environment. So this report considers … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances The trillion-pound question Spring Budget 2020 and the tension between higher spending, low taxes and fiscal credibility 24 February 2020 by Adam Corlett and Jack Leslie and Daniel Tomlinson This report focuses on the big choice that the Chancellor will have to make this year, across two Budgets and the Spending Review, over the balance between day-to-day (current) spending, taxation and additional borrowing. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q1 2020 20 February 2020 by James Smith and Jack Leslie This is the first of a new series of Macro Policy Outlooks (MPOs) from the Resolution Foundation’s Macroeconomic Policy Unit, providing a policy-focused take on the economy. In this edition we explore the outlook ahead of the Budget due on 11 March. The economy has slowed significantly in recent quarters, with 2019 the second-weakest post-war … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty· Cities and regions· Political parties and elections Painting the towns blue Demography, economy and living standards in the political geographies emerging from the 2019 General Election 12 February 2020 by Charlie McCurdy and Laura Gardiner and Maja Gustafsson and Karl Handscomb This report provides an audit of the demography, economy and living standards of what we term the ‘Blue Wall’: the 50 seats that were gained by the Conservatives from Labour in the North East and West, Yorkshire and the Humber, the East and West Midlands, and Wales. We explore whether simplistic characterisations of the Blue … Continued READ MORE
Low pay· Labour market· Pay Working hard(ship) An exploration of poverty, work and tenure 4 February 2020 by Lindsay Judge and Hannah Slaughter This report explores the nexus between poverty, work and housing, and adds to our knowledge of the topic in two distinctive ways. First, we look at in-work poverty not just as a static but also a dynamic condition. Second, we explore the intersection between housing tenure and in-work poverty. READ MORE
Housing Housing Outlook Q1 2020 30 January 2020 by Cara Pacitti and Daniel Tomlinson As we enter a new decade in which both the politics and economics of housing look set to be centre stage, this quarterly publication will be tracking all the key trends as the 2020s unfold. We will be keeping an eye on the housing market, and the way that housing intersects with both living standards and policy developments. This quarter, we begin with a look at house prices and ask whether the ‘levelling up’ we observe across the country since 2016 is at an end, or if the process still has further to run. READ MORE
Cities and regions· Welfare The long and winding road The introduction and impact of Universal Credit in Liverpool City Region and the UK 21 January 2020 by Laura Gardiner and David Finch Universal Credit (UC) – the fundamental re-design of Britain’s welfare system involving merging six benefits into one – is an enormous undertaking. This report reviews both the national UC picture and the experience in Liverpool City Region in particular. READ MORE
Labour market· Time use The times they aren’t a-changin’ Why working hours have stopped falling in London and the UK 18 January 2020 by George Bangham For the typical British adult, paid work takes up more time than any other activity save sleep. How many hours someone works per week is important both for their family’s income and for the way they live their lives. Over the past 200 years average working hours have gradually declined, so that the typical worker … Continued READ MORE
Productivity & industrial strategy· Pay· Economic growth Dead-end relationship? Exploring the link between productivity and workers’ living standards 16 January 2020 by Matthew Whittaker Summary The strength of the relationship between productivity growth and median pay growth – and what it means for the way in which the gains from economic growth are shared across the workforce – has been questioned in recent years, with evidence of a ‘decoupling’ of the two across a number of advanced economies. Such … Continued READ MORE
Household debt· Wealth & assets An outstanding balance? Inequalities in the use – and burden – of consumer credit in the UK 15 January 2020 by Jubair Ahmed and Kathleen Henehan As the 2010s drew to a close, both policymakers and the press raised concerns about rising levels of UK household debt, with some warning it could soon bring about the next recession. Although household debt levels remain high in absolute terms, when compared against total household income they are substantially below levels reached during the … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances· Economic growth· Macroeconomic policy The beginning of the end… …but not the end of the beginning Governor Carney’s valedictory speech discusses the future of the UK’s monetary policy remit – but this is just the start of an important debate 10 January 2020 by James Smith and Tony Yates The beginning of the end… After several false starts, the appointment of his successor (Andrew Bailey) means Mark Carney finally has a leaving date (15 March). He can now concentrate on the serious business of organising his leaving parties securing his legacy from his longer-than-expected time as Bank of England Governor. That all started yesterday … Continued READ MORE
Labour market enforcement· Labour market· Low pay· Living Wage Under the wage floor Exploring firms’ incentives to comply with the minimum wage 8 January 2020 by Lindsay Judge and Anna Stansbury This briefing note explores the incentives for firms to comply with the National Living Wage/National Minimum Wage (NLW/NMW). It documents the penalties that firms are subject to; estimates underpaying firms’ rate of detection; and shows that even if detection rates were significantly increased, they would need to go hand-in-hand with higher financial penalties to provide firms with a hard economic incentive to comply with the NLW/NMW. READ MORE
Labour market· Intergenerational Centre Never ever Exploring the increase in people who’ve never had a paid job 4 January 2020 by Laura Gardiner This briefing note explores why, despite record-high employment, the proportion of working-age adults who have never had a paid job has increased, pointing to a reduction in ‘earning while learning’ as a key driver. READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Pay Earnings Outlook Q3 2019 27 December 2019 by Nye Cominetti and Jack Leslie Unlike our politics, 2019 was a year of strength and stability in the labour market – a year when employment reached and stayed at record highs and pay growth neared pre-recession levels. The most recent set of labour market data (for the three months to October) underlined this – the 16-64 employment rate ticked up … Continued READ MORE
Political parties and elections Election 2019 Our analysis to date 11 December 2019 During elections, political parties set out their vision and priorities for the country over the next five years. The Resolution Foundation has published a series of reports assessing the shape of the state, and exploring the main parties’ plans on housing, tax and spend, and fiscal policy. Read more using the links below, or download our … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Pensions & savings· Inequality & poverty· Wealth & assets· Political parties and elections Who owns all the pie? The size and distribution of Britain’s £14.6 trillion of wealth 5 December 2019 by George Bangham and Jack Leslie While incomes have stagnated over the past decade, our national wealth has continued to boom. Data released today put UK households collective wealth at £14.6 trillion. But that total is far from equally distributed: the richest 10 per cent of households own almost half of the nation’s wealth having benefitted most from the recent wealth … Continued READ MORE
Intergenerational Centre· Political parties and elections Bridging divides? Analysing the 2019 general election from a generational perspective 4 December 2019 by Maja Gustafsson and Laura Gardiner This spotlight article looks at the 2019 general election from a generational perspective. Age has become increasingly important for party choice over recent decades, with the Brexit vote turbo-charging these differences. At the same time, Britain’s demographic divergence means that the average ages of constituencies are growing apart. Parties may be able to capitalise on … Continued READ MORE
Housing· Political parties and elections Streets apart An analysis of manifesto commitments on housing 2 December 2019 by Lindsay Judge Clear positions are one thing – but polarisation is another. While the former help us make informed choices at elections, the latter bodes ill for policy continuity over the long term. If there is one policy domain that particularly benefits from cross-party consensus it is housing, with its long lead-in times and decisions that are … Continued READ MORE
