Labour Market Outlook· Pay Earnings Outlook Q1 2021 Earnings in the Covid-19 crisis 22 March 2021 by Hannah Slaughter The UK has spent the first quarter of 2021 under renewed restrictions to slow the spread of Covid-19. As the third England-wide lockdown began in January, many businesses were forced to close once again, and the number of jobs furloughed through the Job Retention Scheme (JRS) rose to 4.8 million. There is growing light at … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Public spending The 12-month stretch Where the Government has delivered – and where it has failed – during the Covid-19 crisis 18 March 2021 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer This note explores the big picture of how policy makers have responded to the pandemic over the past 12 months, taking a step back to explore what they have done, and what that has done to health and economic outcomes. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Spending fast, taxing slow Resolution Foundation analysis of Budget 2021 4 March 2021 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Kathleen Henehan and Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Daniel Tomlinson This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the March 2021 Budget. The context for this Budget was an intensification of the Covid-19 pandemic, creating a need for further policy measures to support families and firms in the months before the completion of the vaccine rollout. In response, the Chancellor announced significant … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy How to throw good money after good Budget 2021 and the challenge of delivering a rapid recovery from Covid-19 25 February 2021 by Jack Leslie and Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti and James Smith While the strength of the economic recovery from Covid-19 will depend on the vaccine rollout and the Government’s ‘road map’ for easing social distancing restrictions, it will also depend on decisions taken at the Budget which are the economic counterpart to that reopening plan. This paper assesses the economic context to the Budget: how the … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Universal Credit· Welfare Half-measures The Chancellor’s options for Universal Credit in the Budget 19 February 2021 by Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb The Government has still to decide on whether to continue the £20 per week uplift to Universal Credit (UC) and Working Tax Credit (WTC), due to expire in just 45 days. There are suggestions the Chancellor will opt for a halfway house of keeping the uplift for six months. Compared to the pencilled-in default of … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market Long Covid in the labour market The impact on the labour market of Covid-19 a year into the crisis, and how to secure a strong recovery 17 February 2021 by Nye Cominetti and Kathleen Henehan and Hannah Slaughter and Greg Thwaites This is the third time we have written a report taking stock of the impact of the virus on the labour market. Nine months on from our first report in June last year, some things are similar. The health effects of the second wave may be starting to recede, and thoughts are again turning to … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Housing Getting ahead on falling behind Tackling the UK’s building arrears crisis 16 February 2021 by Lindsay Judge This briefing note examines how families have managed their housing costs over the Covid-19 period. Although the Government has done much to support families over the past year (not least via the furlough scheme and the £20 per week uplift to UC), it is clear that financial strain has grown as the pandemic has worn … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Firms· Economic growth On firm ground? The impact of Covid-19 on firms and what policy makers should do in response 10 February 2021 by Nye Cominetti and Jack Leslie and James Smith The coronavirus crisis has had huge repercussions across the economy, and the corporate sector is no exception. This paper analyses how the crisis has affected firms’ finances, puts that in context compared to previous recessions, and assesses the ability of firms to contribute to the post-crisis recovery. This is important because firms’ investment and hiring … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Household debt· Welfare The debts that divide us Flash findings from a survey of families claiming Universal Credit 7 February 2021 by Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb The surge in claims for Universal Credit (UC) when the pandemic first hit means that UC caseloads are now about twice as high as they were pre-pandemic, with over half of all single parents now in receipt of UC. About 60 per cent of the current caseload have newly-claimed UC during 2020, and the fraction … Continued READ MORE
Housing Housing Outlook Q1 2021 The Impact of Covid-19 on Housing Supply 2 February 2021 by Lindsay Judge and Cara Pacitti Welcome to Housing Outlook Q1 2021. In this Spotlight we consider the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the supply of new housing. While construction sites have generally been allowed to operate throughout the pandemic, output was still severely constrained in the first half of 2020. While there was some pick up at the back … Continued READ MORE
Pensions & savings Building a living pension Closing the pension savings gap for low to-middle income families 23 January 2021 by David Finch and Cara Pacitti The Living Wage has been successful in providing a focus on the living standards of low-paid workers and increasing pay for many lower-paid employees. However, there has been much less of a focus on the future living standards of the same group. A ‘Living Pension’ could help us understand the savings required today to provide … Continued READ MORE
Living standards The Living Standards Outlook 2021 18 January 2021 by Mike Brewer and Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb and Daniel Tomlinson In the Living Standards Outlook, we assess how the hoped-for post-pandemic economic recovery might translate into a recovery for living standards. Focusing on working-age households, we provide projections for household disposable incomes across the income distribution through to 2024-25. READ MORE
Covid-19· Living standards Pandemic Pressures Why families on a low income are spending more during Covid-19 11 January 2021 by Mike Brewer and Ruth Patrick Household spending has fallen during the Covid-19 pandemic, but not for many of those on the lowest incomes. This note brings together data from representative surveys with vivid accounts from parents and carers participating in the ‘Covid Realities’ research programme to explore the reasons behind, and consequences of, the cost pressures that many have faced since the pandemic began. READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty Improving our understanding of UK poverty will require better data 6 January 2021 by Adam Corlett Policy makers across the political spectrum want to improve the living standards of the UK’s poorer households. The Leader of the House of Commons recently stated that “We are committed to our manifesto pledge to reduce child poverty”, while the last Labour manifesto pledged to “eradicate in-work poverty”. So statistics about poverty matter. We need … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19 Lockdown lessons What 2020 has to teach us about the difficult weeks ahead 5 January 2021 by Torsten Bell and Lindsay Judge 2021 begins with England and Scotland heading into new lockdowns, and tough ones at that. Lasting until at least late February, England’s new restrictions are more comparable to those of spring 2020 than the more relaxed autumn affairs. In this short note we focus on the experience of that first lockdown, and what it can … Continued READ MORE
Wealth & assets The UK’s wealth distribution and characteristics of high-wealth households 3 January 2021 by Arun Advani and George Bangham and Jack Leslie Household wealth is profoundly important for living standards but is held very unequally. Official estimates of wealth in the UK underestimate its size – by £800 billion – and also the level of inequality. READ MORE
Pensions & savings· Wealth & assets The Missing Billions 3 January 2021 by Jack Leslie In this spotlight we discuss new research on the size and distribution of UK household wealth. Such wealth matters for living standards, economic opportunity and the ability of families to weather the coronavirus crisis. But it also matters because there is increasing interest in reforming wealth taxes in the UK, not least in the context … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Ethnic minorities in the hospitality sector Comparing the experiences of hospitality workers from different ethnic backgrounds 30 December 2020 by Sharon Mai and Nye Cominetti This briefing note looks at the experiences in the hospitality sector of workers from different ethnic backgrounds. It finds that 1 in 6 hospitality workers are from an ethnic minority background, compared to around 1 in 8 workers in the rest of the economy. Ethnic minority workers in hospitality vary both in their characteristics and … Continued READ MORE
Economic growth· Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q4 2020 28 December 2020 by James Smith and Torsten Bell and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and Nye Cominetti This is our regular Macro Policy Outlook, providing a policy-focused take on the economy. In this edition, we focus on the labour market, and the prospects for unemployment. This edition of the Macro Policy Outlook looks ahead to prospects for 2021. The early months of next year will pick up where 2020 left off, … Continued READ MORE
Wealth & assets A gap that won’t close The distribution of wealth between ethnic groups in Great Britain 22 December 2020 by George Bangham The coronavirus pandemic has shone a harsh light on wealth inequality in Britain, with wealth playing an important role shaping families’ experience of the crisis. This briefing examines the gaps in the wealth held by different ethnic groups, and how and why they have evolved over time, finding that very significant ethnicity wealth gaps remain. … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Pay Earnings Outlook Q4 2020 Public sector pay 21 December 2020 by Hannah Slaughter As we come to the end of a year like no other, the outlook for the labour market remains mixed. At the beginning of this month, the second national lockdown came to an end, non-essential retail and hospitality businesses (in most of the country) were allowed to reopen, and recent weeks have brought official approval … Continued READ MORE
Labour market enforcement· Covid-19· Labour market· Brexit & trade· Migration Home and away The UK labour market in a post-Brexit world 16 December 2020 by Kathleen Henehan and Lindsay Judge This briefing note considers a number of ways in which the labour market could be affected as the UK moves to a tighter, post-Brexit immigration regime in January 2021. Under the new rules, legal avenues for low-skilled migrant workers to enter the UK will be more restrictively drawn, with implications for firms, resident foreign-born workers … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19 Time out Reforming Statutory Sick Pay to support the Covid-19 recovery phase 8 December 2020 by Mike Brewer and Maja Gustafsson In a pandemic, sick pay should play a crucial public health role, as well as providing income protection. But the UK’s Statutory Sick Pay is low by international standards, and misses out two million of our lowest-paid workers. Evidence suggests that this contributes to the low level of compliance with the legal obligation to self-isolate … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Here today, gone tomorrow Putting Spending Review 2020 into context 26 November 2020 by Torsten Bell and Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the November 2020 Spending Review. The backdrop to that Review was the reality of an on-going health crisis and a huge hit to the economy which looks set to leave lasting damage to both household and public finances. In response, the Chancellor has ramped up coronavirus spending this … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances The Covid state Analysis of the economy and public finances ahead of the 2020 Spending Review 20 November 2020 by Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and Daniel Tomlinson and James Smith The Chancellor is set to unveil his Spending Review against a radically changed economic and fiscal backdrop to the one he faced in March. Although unemployment is set to peak lower and later than had been expected back in the Summer, the long-term economic scarring from this crisis is set to be significant. The OBR’s … Continued READ MORE
