Covid-19· Housing Coping with housing costs, six months on… New findings from the Resolution Foundation's Covid-19 study - wave two 30 October 2020 by Lindsay Judge and Cara Pacitti In this spotlight, we use results from a new Resolution Foundation/Health Foundation survey to explore the impact that housing costs are having on living standards as the COVID-19 crisis continues to unfold. Despite some improvements in the labour market since the spring, housing costs continue to be a serious concern for many households as they … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19 Jobs, jobs, jobs Evaluating the effects of the current economic crisis on the UK labour market 27 October 2020 by Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Kathleen Henehan and Charlie McCurdy and Rukmen Sehmi and Hannah Slaughter This report highlights which groups of workers have struggled the most as the coronavirus crisis has evolved, who is at risk as the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme is replaced by the Job Support Scheme, and the prospects for the future. READ MORE
Covid-19 Sorting it out The Chancellor moves to fix the Job Support Scheme 22 October 2020 by Daniel Tomlinson The Chancellor has sharply, and rightly, changed course to make Job Support Scheme (JSS) a functioning short-time work scheme, addressing its central flaw. Slashing the share of wages for hours not worked that employers must pay from 33 to just 5 per cent will make a big different to the cost of using the scheme. … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Incomes Back to the furlough U-turn to retain furlough scheme in closed sectors paves way for fresh lockdowns 9 October 2020 by Karl Handscomb and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and Daniel Tomlinson The short-lived attempt to set economic policy as if we were leaving the pandemic behind us is over, with the Government announcing that it will pay two-thirds of wages of employees in firms forced to close because of national or local restrictions. This will provide much needed support, saving many jobs in the hospitality and … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Intergenerational Centre An intergenerational audit for the UK 2020 7 October 2020 by Laura Gardiner and Maja Gustafsson and Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb and Kathleen Henehan and Lindsay Judge and Fahmida Rahman This Intergenerational Audit for the UK – supported by the Nuffield Foundation – provides the first comprehensive assessment of the initial phase of the coronavirus crisis for different generations in Britain. READ MORE
Covid-19· Welfare Safe harbour? Six key welfare policy decisions to navigate this winter 7 October 2020 by Karl Handscomb Despite the new Job Support Scheme, unemployment is set to rise substantially through the autumn and winter, as the Job Retention Scheme ends and the hospitality sector adjusts to new restrictions. This means many more individuals will soon be dependent on the social security system; and as the economy moves into the next phase of … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Welfare Death by £1000 cuts? The history, economics and politics of cutting benefits for millions of households next April 2 October 2020 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb The first Conservative Conference of a new parliament begins. It comes on the back of a surprisingly emphatic election win, but with rumblings beginning about the Chancellor’s plan to take £1,000 away from millions of low-income households in just six months’ time. At that conference it is George Osborne, not Rishi Sunak, that gets up … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Economy and public finances The Winter (Economy Plan) is coming Chancellor ramps economic support back up, but avoidable design flaws will limit its success in stemming the Autumn rise in unemployment 25 September 2020 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson Economic policy yesterday caught back up with the ramping back up of social distancing restrictions by the Prime Minister earlier in the week. The Chancellor rightly announced new measures rather than sticking to plans to phase out help for workers and firms. His most significant policy was the Job Support Scheme (JSS), an extended, … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Low pay Low Pay Britain 2020 23 September 2020 by Nye Cominetti and Hannah Slaughter This is our tenth annual Low Pay Britain report. Naturally, the focus of the report this year is on the coronavirus crisis: its impact on the low paid, and what this means for minimum wage policy. The low paid have already suffered the worst of the economic effects of this crisis; they are more likely … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q3 2020 21 September 2020 by James Smith and Jack Leslie This is our regular Macro Policy Outlook, providing a policy-focused take on the economy. In this edition, we focus on the labour market, and the prospects for unemployment. While the OBR forecast that the unemployment rate will rise to match its 1980s peak of 11.9 per cent, the Bank of England is projecting a rise … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market Final furlough? Six months on from the start of the Job Retention Scheme 18 September 2020 by Daniel Tomlinson At its peak in early May the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS) was supporting 8.9 million jobs. As the economy has opened up in recent months take-up of the scheme has been falling, to 4.8 million by 31 July. Of these, 3.5 million (over 10 per cent of private sector employees) were still furloughed in … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Incomes· Intergenerational Centre All together now? The impacts of the Government’s coronavirus income support schemes across the age distribution 9 September 2020 by Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb This note looks at how policies to protect household incomes in the pandemic – the coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS), the self-employment income support scheme (SEISS), and a significant boost to social security benefits – have been felt across different age groups during the first months of the crisis. READ MORE
Covid-19· Housing· Intergenerational Centre Under water How big will the negative equity crisis be, and who is at risk, in the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis? 2 September 2020 by Maja Gustafsson This report for the Resolution Foundation’s Intergenerational Centre focuses on two big questions: what is the likely scale of the possible low equity problem in the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis; and who is likely to be affected? First, the report shows that the scale of the possible low equity problem looks set to be … Continued READ MORE
Labour market enforcement· Pensions & savings Enrol up! The case for strengthening auto-enrolment enforcement 27 August 2020 by Hannah Slaughter This briefing note is part of a three-year programme of research exploring labour market enforcement generously funded by Unbound Philanthropy. It considers the extent of non-compliance with auto-enrolment, and whether there are ‘under-enrolment’ hotspots that require closer scrutiny. We estimate that around 3 per cent of eligible employees are not enrolled in a pension scheme … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Skills Can training help workers change their stripes? Retraining and career change in the UK 18 August 2020 by Kathleen Henehan The coronavirus crisis has already brought significant disruption to the UK labour market, particularly in sectors that offer in-person services like hospitality, entertainment and retail. There are fears that as the Government’s temporary support measures wind down, many more adults could soon be out of work. The Government will need to consider adult education and … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Housing Housing Outlook Q3 2020 House prices in recessions 13 August 2020 by Lindsay Judge and Cara Pacitti Welcome to Housing Outlook Q3 2020. In this edition we examine how house prices have behaved in previous recessions, and look set to adjust to the coronavirus crisis. While some might see anticipated house price falls as a potential opportunity for young people to get onto the housing ladder, the Office for Budget Responsibility’s house … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market The Government is not paying nine million people’s wages The number of people currently furloughed is less than half this amount 1 August 2020 by Daniel Tomlinson From today, employers will start contributing towards the wage costs of furloughed employees. This significant first step in the phasing-out of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS) carries real risks of increased redundancies – particularly for those in the hardest-hit sectors – and so attention should also focus on the important question of just how … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Time use The time of your life Time use in London and the UK over the past 40 years 28 July 2020 by George Bangham and Maja Gustafsson Few things in life are equal, but each day every one of us has 24 hours of time to use. How time is best spent has been the subject of an active public debate in recent years, and this question has been thrown still further into the limelight by the disruptions of the coronavirus pandemic. … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Living standards The Living Standards Audit 2020 21 July 2020 by Daniel Tomlinson and Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb and Charlie McCurdy and Mike Brewer This report provides an estimate of living standards in lockdown Britain, placing them in the context of a poor decade for incomes. It looks at how different groups have fared before and during lockdown, and explores upcoming risks for household incomes. READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market The truth will out Understanding labour market statistics during the coronavirus crisis 16 July 2020 by Mike Brewer and Laura Gardiner and Karl Handscomb Labour market statistics matter. In normal times, they offer a snapshot on how household living standards are faring, and in recessions they also provide a key measure of how serious a crisis we face. Because the current coronavirus crisis is rooted in the labour market, even more attention is being paid to the monthly labour … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour Market Outlook· Pay Earnings Outlook Q1 2020 What we know about how employee earnings have fared in the current crisis 16 July 2020 by Nye Cominetti and Laura Gardiner Since we last produced an Earnings Outlook (at the end of March) some things have become clearer. The scale of the impact of the current crisis is as big as was feared. This was already apparent then from the soaring claims for Universal Credit, but has since been confirmed by the 300-year-record fall in GDP, … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Fiscal policy· Macroeconomic policy Act now, or pay later The OBR’s Fiscal Sustainability Report makes clear the implications of a crisis-driven rise in unemployment for the public finances 14 July 2020 by James Smith and Cara Pacitti and Jack Leslie The OBR’s latest Fiscal Sustainability Report confirms its view that the current crisis could lead to the largest economic contraction in 300 years precipitating a return of unemployment levels not since the 1980s. Given the huge uncertainty, the OBR has produced three scenarios with different assumption about a timetable for finding a vaccine or other … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Living standards· Time use Time with the kids How parents’ time use has changed during the pandemic 13 July 2020 by George Bangham Many aspects of people’s time use have been turned upside down by the coronavirus lockdown. Some restrictions are now being unwound, but others, like limits on the availability of professional childcare, will continue, with particular consequences for how parents of different genders use their time. Indeed, data collected during the lockdown suggests that while job … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Budgets & fiscal events· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Summer Economic Update July 2020 Resolution Foundation overnight analysis 9 July 2020 by Resolution Foundation Analysis This was not a Budget, but was still a big deal with £30bn of measures to support the economy. This is particularly significant when seen in combination with £160bn of pandemic-related support already announced, leaving borrowing this year on course to reach £350bn. Debt interest costs will continue to fall, although the crisis will leave … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19 Easing does it Economic policy beyond the lockdown 7 July 2020 by Laura Gardiner and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and James Smith Having weathered the first wave of the coronavirus economic storm, the task now facing the country is how to reopen, revive, and rebuild our economy while the virus remains with us. The Government needs to act as quickly, boldly, and creatively in the recovery phase of the outbreak as it did in the initial rescue … Continued READ MORE
