Labour Market Outlook· Labour market Labour Market Outlook Q4 2021 Wages and the cost of living in 2022 29 December 2021 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett and Jonathan Marshall and Hannah Slaughter The final three months of 2021 have been a mixed bag for the pandemic and the labour market. At the end of September, the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS) came to an end after 18 months – and the feared rise in unemployment does not seem to have come to pass. But the emergence of … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Covid-19 Social mobility in the time of Covid Assessing the social mobility implications of Covid-19 26 December 2021 by Andrew Eyles Covid-19 has had a profound impact on the economic prospects of young people. This briefing note, which forms part of the Economy 2030 Inquiry, documents the unequal impact of economic shocks on the young and assesses what these mean for social mobility. Labour market conditions at the onset of one’s career have persistent effects over … Continued READ MORE
Housing Housing Outlook Q4 2021 The impact of higher inflation on social renters’ housing costs 22 December 2021 by Lindsay Judge and Felicia Odamtten and Krishan Shah Welcome to the final Housing Outlook of 2021.1 Times are tough for many at present, as prices rise and Omicron puts the UK’s tentative economic recovery in jeopardy. In this quarter’s spotlight we assess the living standards prospects of social renters, and in particular consider what soaring inflation means for their housing costs as they … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 More trade from a land down under The significance of trade agreements with Australia and New Zealand 20 December 2021 by Sophie Hale and James Smith Last week’s announcement of a trade agreement with Australia (along with a soon-to-be-finalised deal with New Zealand) is good news for the Government’s post-Brexit trade strategy. The deal with Australia represents the first substantively new deal, providing evidence of the opportunities the UK now has after leaving the EU. But both deals are small in … Continued READ MORE
Monetary policy· Macroeconomic policy What goes down must come up The Bank of England becomes the first major central bank to raise rates but impact will be small with fiscal policy key to Omicron response 16 December 2021 by Jack Leslie and James Smith The Bank of England performed a ‘bait and switch’ by not raising rates in November when many people expected they would, but then raising them today when many thought the rise of Omicron would mean that they would wait to see the impact of the new wave. Many commentators have focussed on the high current … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market The new wave The economic policy response to Omicron 15 December 2021 by Torsten Bell and Jack Leslie A new wave of this pandemic is underway, even if we can’t see much sign of it yet in the UK-wide data. The Prime Minister rightly tells us to expect “a tidal wave of Omicron coming” and in London it’s already arrived. This is not the Christmas present any of us wanted. In terms of … Continued READ MORE
Wealth & assets Home county Options for taxing main residence capital gains 9 December 2021 by Adam Corlett and Jack Leslie Over the past 30 years, the total value of household wealth in the UK has risen from three times national income to well over seven times. Inflation-beating house price growth and high ownership rates have combined to add around £3 trillion of housing wealth from main residences to that total – accounting for around a … Continued READ MORE
Housing Hope to buy The decline of youth home ownership 2 December 2021 by Adam Corlett and Felicia Odamtten This briefing note explores how the home ownership fortunes of those aged 25 to 34 have changed over time. Owning one’s home is an enduring preference for the majority of families in the UK, but today’s young people face a more serious set of hurdles to overcome than previous generations if they want to turn … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Begin again? Assessing the permanent implications of Covid-19 for the UK’s labour market 23 November 2021 by Mike Brewer and Charlie McCurdy and Hannah Slaughter Covid-19 has had profound impacts on the way that we work. This report, part of the Economy 2030 Inquiry, considers recent labour market developments with an eye on the longer-term changes, and the resulting challenges for policy makers over the rest of this decade. READ MORE
Pay· Living Wage Calculating the Real Living Wage for London and the rest of the UK: 2021 15 November 2021 by Nye Cominetti This report sets out the method through which the Living Wage rates in London and the rest of the UK are calculated by the Resolution Foundation and overseen by the Living Wage Commission on behalf of the Living Wage Foundation. The rate for the UK Living Wage for 2020-21 is £9.90. The rate for the … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Business time How ready are UK firms for the decisive decade? 15 November 2021 by Juliana Oliveira-Cunha and Jess Kozler and Pablo Shah and Greg Thwaites and Anna Valero The UK is set for a decade of major change, with private sector firms in the front line. How ready are they for this change? READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market Post-furlough blues What happened to furloughed workers after the end of the Job Retention Scheme? 14 November 2021 by Mike Brewer and Charlie McCurdy Going into the autumn, most official forecasters expected unemployment to be little affected by the ending of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS), which closed in September 2021. However, there were still 1.1 million workers on furlough as the scheme ended, skewed towards sectors like aviation that are still far from reaching pre-pandemic levels of … Continued READ MORE
Labour market enforcement· Low pay· Labour market No shame, no gain? The role of reputation in labour market enforcement 9 November 2021 by Hannah Slaughter This briefing note is part of a three-year programme of research exploring labour market enforcement generously funded by Unbound Philanthropy. In it, we combine qualitative and quantitative research to explore how powerfully reputational concerns determine firms’ behaviour when it comes to worker rights, and whether policy makers could leverage firms’ worries about their public profile … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Living standards· Welfare Taper cut Analysis of the Autumn Budget changes to Universal Credit 6 November 2021 by Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb and Lalitha Try This briefing note looks at the changes to Universal Credit (UC) – the main benefit for low-income families – made by the Chancellor in the Autumn 2021 Budget. The reduction in the taper rate from 63 to 55 percent, and increase in the work allowance by £500 a year, represent a significant, permanent increase in … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Incomes· Economic growth Are you better off today? Real income growth under different governments since 1955 3 November 2021 by Adam Corlett In the 1980 presidential contest between the incumbent Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan, the latter asked voters “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”. Although far from the only question that voters do or should ask, it is a reasonable question. In the UK, since 1955, real household disposable income per … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances The Boris Budget Resolution Foundation analysis of Autumn Budget and Spending Review 2021 28 October 2021 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Kathleen Henehan and Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson and Lalitha Try This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the October 2021 Budget and Spending Review. The Chancellor has unveiled a career-defining third Budget against a backdrop of heightened uncertainty and risks. His aim: to draw a line under Covid-19, boost spending in the key priority areas yet also bear down on the … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Home is where the heat (pump) is The Government’s Heat and Buildings Strategy is a welcome step forward but lower-income households will need more support 21 October 2021 by Jonathan Marshall The Government’s recently released Heat and Buildings Strategy represents a much-needed step forward in plans to decarbonise Britain’s homes, a task likely to be one of the trickiest aspects of reaching net zero emissions. While much of the headlines have focused on heat pumps, the strategy contains welcome support for insulating social housing and the … Continued READ MORE
Intergenerational Centre An intergenerational audit for the UK 2021 21 October 2021 by Kathleen Henehan and Maja Gustafsson and Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Lalitha Try Our third Intergenerational Audit – supported by the Nuffield Foundation – provides an analysis of economic living standards across generations in Britain. In so doing, it analyses the latest data across four domains: Jobs, skills and pay Housing costs and security Taxes, benefits and household incomes Wealth and assets In each of these domains, we … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances The Uncertainty Principle Previewing the decisions to be taken at the Autumn Budget and Spending Review 2021 19 October 2021 by Jack Leslie and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson This report is our analysis of the economic and fiscal outlook ahead of the upcoming Autumn 2021 Budget – including what it will mean for the decisions the Chancellor will need to take at the Spending Review. The starting point for the Budget is that the economy is in a much stronger position than was … Continued READ MORE
Bills, bills, bills How rising energy costs will impact some more than others and what the Government can do about it 17 October 2021 by Jonathan Marshall Summary As winter approaches, millions of British households will be facing growing financial pressure. The combination of falling incomes, as the Covid-19 support schemes end, and rising inflation, driven by higher energy costs, means family budgets will be squeezed from all sides. The impacts of soaring global gas markets on the energy bills of millions … Continued READ MORE
Intergenerational Centre A return to boom and bust (in births) How birth cycles will affect public spending pressures over the coming decade 15 October 2021 by Maja Gustafsson and David Willetts The demographic impact of the Baby Boomer generation on public spending is frequently discussed as they move out of work and into retirement, but the most recent birth cycle – in which births hit a low point in 2002, a high point in 2012, and have been declining since – is having profound impacts on the education system. READ MORE
Economy 2030 Trading places Brexit and the path to longer-term improvements in living standards 14 October 2021 by Swati Dhingra and Josh De Lyon and Sophie Hale and James Smith This briefing note is the launch paper for the Brexit research theme of The Economy 2030 Inquiry, a joint project between the Resolution Foundation and the London School of Economics, funded by the Nuffield Foundation. It outlines how trade shapes, and is shaped by, wider changes to the economy, defining the nature of jobs for … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 The Carbon Crunch Turning targets into delivery 30 September 2021 by Jonathan Marshall This report is the launch paper for the net zero strand of the Economy 2030 Inquiry, a joint project between the Resolution Foundation and the London School of Economics. It outlines how net zero can be placed at the centre of the UK’s economic strategy and the importance of the next decade in getting back … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19 Job well done 18 months of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme 27 September 2021 by Daniel Tomlinson The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS) ends in just a few short days. Over the past 18 months, it has covered the wages of some 11.6 million people, and has provided for 2.3 billion days of furlough (both full and partial furlough) at a cost to the Government of almost £70 billion (in gross terms). … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Incomes· Living standards· Prices & consumption· Welfare The big squeeze Assessing the changes to family incomes over the next six months 26 September 2021 by Karl Handscomb This winter will see a major income squeeze – and it will be focused on low-to-middle income households. High inflation, especially higher energy bills, will strain many families’ finances. But these pressures will be compounded for over 4 million families when £20 a week is cut from Universal Credit in October 2021. Looking forward, April … Continued READ MORE
