Economy 2030 Under new management How immigration policy change will, and won’t, affect the UK’s path to becoming a high-wage, high-productivity economy 17 February 2022 by Kathleen Henehan Immigration has been billed as both a driver of, and a cure for, a low-wage, low-productivity economy. With big economic changes like Brexit, the recovery from Covid-19 and the transition to net zero emissions coming down the track in the 2020s, this note looks at recent changes in the UK’s immigration system in order to … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Under pressure Managing fiscal pressures in the 2020s 10 February 2022 by Krishan Shah and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson The 2020s are set to be a decade in which the spending pressures from ageing intensify, healthcare costs continue to rise, and the state needs to invest more to drive a rapid transition to net zero. These trends will play out against the backdrop of a decade of significant economic change that will place further … Continued READ MORE
Prices & consumption· Public spending· Inequality & poverty· Economy and public finances The price is right? The April 2022 energy price rise and the Government’s response 4 February 2022 by Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge and James Smith The Government has opted for universalism and minimising the hit to the public purse in its response to the energy price rise yesterday. The announced measures take the sting out of Ofgem’s £693 rise in the energy price cap in April with a broad-based package of support. All households will get a £200 discount on … Continued READ MORE
Wealth & assets· Intergenerational Centre Intergenerational rapport fair? Intergenerational wealth transfers and the effect on UK families 3 February 2022 by Jack Leslie and Krishan Shah Intergenerational wealth transfers – both gifts and inheritances – have increasingly become a major feature of UK economic life. These wealth transfers have major impacts on how people live their lives and the opportunities available to them. READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market· Skills· Intergenerational Centre Leaving lockdown Young people’s employment in 2021: improvements and challenges in the second year of the Covid-19 pandemic 31 January 2022 by Louise Murphy This spotlight explores younger people’s employment trajectory during the Covid-19 pandemic, before setting out where policy makers should now be focused. READ MORE
Economy 2030 A presage to India Assessing the UK’s new Indo-Pacific trade focus 26 January 2022 by Sophie Hale The Government’s trade policy is pivoting to target the fast-growing Indo-Pacific region. The key part of this strategy is a new deal with India. This briefing note explores the implications of this approach finding that it’s something of a gamble with potential rewards coming with big risks. READ MORE
Economy 2030· Welfare Social Insecurity Assessing trends in social security to prepare for the decade of change ahead 19 January 2022 by Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb and Gavin Kelly and James Smith and Lalitha Try The UK is facing a decade of unprecedented economic change as we adjust to a post-Covid-19 economy, a new economic context outside the European Union (EU), and the decarbonisation of the economy. And the social security system has a key role to play in the years ahead: it is part of the policy toolkit for … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Prices & consumption Higher and higher Averting a looming energy bill crisis 17 January 2022 by Adam Corlett and Lindsay Judge and Jonathan Marshall The higher energy price cap due to be introduced on April 1 will see energy costs jump by more than 50 per cent overnight. As a result, the share of English households experiencing ‘fuel stress’ (i.e. spending more than 10 per cent of their household budget on energy) will triple from 9 per cent to … Continued READ MORE
Pensions & savings· Wealth & assets Wealth on the eve of a crisis Exploring the UK’s pre-pandemic wealth distribution 7 January 2022 by Krishan Shah Today’s release of data from the Wealth and Assets Survey (WAS) gives us a key insight into the financial position of families on the eve of the pandemic. It shows a picture of steady increases in aggregate wealth with households’ net worth standing at £15.2 trillion before the onset of Covid-19. Much is written about … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Changing jobs? Change in the UK labour market and the role of worker mobility 6 January 2022 by Nye Cominetti and Rui Costa and Andrew Eyles and Tzvetan Moev and Guglielmo Ventura This report is about the nature and speed of change in the UK’s labour market, about how past periods of rapid change have happened, and about workers’ experiences as they have lived through these changes. It is written with an eye to the upheaval we expect to see in the coming decade as the effects … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market Labour Market Outlook Q4 2021 Wages and the cost of living in 2022 29 December 2021 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett and Jonathan Marshall and Hannah Slaughter The final three months of 2021 have been a mixed bag for the pandemic and the labour market. At the end of September, the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS) came to an end after 18 months – and the feared rise in unemployment does not seem to have come to pass. But the emergence of … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Covid-19 Social mobility in the time of Covid Assessing the social mobility implications of Covid-19 26 December 2021 by Andrew Eyles Covid-19 has had a profound impact on the economic prospects of young people. This briefing note, which forms part of the Economy 2030 Inquiry, documents the unequal impact of economic shocks on the young and assesses what these mean for social mobility. Labour market conditions at the onset of one’s career have persistent effects over … Continued READ MORE
Housing Housing Outlook Q4 2021 The impact of higher inflation on social renters’ housing costs 22 December 2021 by Lindsay Judge and Felicia Odamtten and Krishan Shah Welcome to the final Housing Outlook of 2021.1 Times are tough for many at present, as prices rise and Omicron puts the UK’s tentative economic recovery in jeopardy. In this quarter’s spotlight we assess the living standards prospects of social renters, and in particular consider what soaring inflation means for their housing costs as they … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 More trade from a land down under The significance of trade agreements with Australia and New Zealand 20 December 2021 by Sophie Hale and James Smith Last week’s announcement of a trade agreement with Australia (along with a soon-to-be-finalised deal with New Zealand) is good news for the Government’s post-Brexit trade strategy. The deal with Australia represents the first substantively new deal, providing evidence of the opportunities the UK now has after leaving the EU. But both deals are small in … Continued READ MORE
Monetary policy· Macroeconomic policy What goes down must come up The Bank of England becomes the first major central bank to raise rates but impact will be small with fiscal policy key to Omicron response 16 December 2021 by Jack Leslie and James Smith The Bank of England performed a ‘bait and switch’ by not raising rates in November when many people expected they would, but then raising them today when many thought the rise of Omicron would mean that they would wait to see the impact of the new wave. Many commentators have focussed on the high current … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market The new wave The economic policy response to Omicron 15 December 2021 by Torsten Bell and Jack Leslie A new wave of this pandemic is underway, even if we can’t see much sign of it yet in the UK-wide data. The Prime Minister rightly tells us to expect “a tidal wave of Omicron coming” and in London it’s already arrived. This is not the Christmas present any of us wanted. In terms of … Continued READ MORE
Wealth & assets Home county Options for taxing main residence capital gains 9 December 2021 by Adam Corlett and Jack Leslie Over the past 30 years, the total value of household wealth in the UK has risen from three times national income to well over seven times. Inflation-beating house price growth and high ownership rates have combined to add around £3 trillion of housing wealth from main residences to that total – accounting for around a … Continued READ MORE
Housing Hope to buy The decline of youth home ownership 2 December 2021 by Adam Corlett and Felicia Odamtten This briefing note explores how the home ownership fortunes of those aged 25 to 34 have changed over time. Owning one’s home is an enduring preference for the majority of families in the UK, but today’s young people face a more serious set of hurdles to overcome than previous generations if they want to turn … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Begin again? Assessing the permanent implications of Covid-19 for the UK’s labour market 23 November 2021 by Mike Brewer and Charlie McCurdy and Hannah Slaughter Covid-19 has had profound impacts on the way that we work. This report, part of the Economy 2030 Inquiry, considers recent labour market developments with an eye on the longer-term changes, and the resulting challenges for policy makers over the rest of this decade. READ MORE
Pay· Living Wage Calculating the Real Living Wage for London and the rest of the UK: 2021 15 November 2021 by Nye Cominetti This report sets out the method through which the Living Wage rates in London and the rest of the UK are calculated by the Resolution Foundation and overseen by the Living Wage Commission on behalf of the Living Wage Foundation. The rate for the UK Living Wage for 2020-21 is £9.90. The rate for the … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Business time How ready are UK firms for the decisive decade? 15 November 2021 by Juliana Oliveira-Cunha and Jess Kozler and Pablo Shah and Greg Thwaites and Anna Valero The UK is set for a decade of major change, with private sector firms in the front line. How ready are they for this change? READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market Post-furlough blues What happened to furloughed workers after the end of the Job Retention Scheme? 14 November 2021 by Mike Brewer and Charlie McCurdy Going into the autumn, most official forecasters expected unemployment to be little affected by the ending of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS), which closed in September 2021. However, there were still 1.1 million workers on furlough as the scheme ended, skewed towards sectors like aviation that are still far from reaching pre-pandemic levels of … Continued READ MORE
Labour market enforcement· Labour market· Low pay No shame, no gain? The role of reputation in labour market enforcement 9 November 2021 by Hannah Slaughter This briefing note is part of a three-year programme of research exploring labour market enforcement generously funded by Unbound Philanthropy. In it, we combine qualitative and quantitative research to explore how powerfully reputational concerns determine firms’ behaviour when it comes to worker rights, and whether policy makers could leverage firms’ worries about their public profile … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Living standards· Welfare Taper cut Analysis of the Autumn Budget changes to Universal Credit 6 November 2021 by Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb and Lalitha Try This briefing note looks at the changes to Universal Credit (UC) – the main benefit for low-income families – made by the Chancellor in the Autumn 2021 Budget. The reduction in the taper rate from 63 to 55 percent, and increase in the work allowance by £500 a year, represent a significant, permanent increase in … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Living standards· Economic growth Are you better off today? Real income growth under different governments since 1955 3 November 2021 by Adam Corlett In the 1980 presidential contest between the incumbent Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan, the latter asked voters “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”. Although far from the only question that voters do or should ask, it is a reasonable question. In the UK, since 1955, real household disposable income per … Continued READ MORE
