Housing Hope to buy The decline of youth home ownership 2 December 2021 by Adam Corlett and Felicia Odamtten This briefing note explores how the home ownership fortunes of those aged 25 to 34 have changed over time. Owning one’s home is an enduring preference for the majority of families in the UK, but today’s young people face a more serious set of hurdles to overcome than previous generations if they want to turn … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Begin again? Assessing the permanent implications of Covid-19 for the UK’s labour market 23 November 2021 by Mike Brewer and Charlie McCurdy and Hannah Slaughter Covid-19 has had profound impacts on the way that we work. This report, part of the Economy 2030 Inquiry, considers recent labour market developments with an eye on the longer-term changes, and the resulting challenges for policy makers over the rest of this decade. READ MORE
Pay· Living Wage Calculating the Real Living Wage for London and the rest of the UK: 2021 15 November 2021 by Nye Cominetti This report sets out the method through which the Living Wage rates in London and the rest of the UK are calculated by the Resolution Foundation and overseen by the Living Wage Commission on behalf of the Living Wage Foundation. The rate for the UK Living Wage for 2020-21 is £9.90. The rate for the … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Business time How ready are UK firms for the decisive decade? 15 November 2021 by Juliana Oliveira-Cunha and Jess Kozler and Pablo Shah and Greg Thwaites and Anna Valero The UK is set for a decade of major change, with private sector firms in the front line. How ready are they for this change? READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market Post-furlough blues What happened to furloughed workers after the end of the Job Retention Scheme? 14 November 2021 by Mike Brewer and Charlie McCurdy Going into the autumn, most official forecasters expected unemployment to be little affected by the ending of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS), which closed in September 2021. However, there were still 1.1 million workers on furlough as the scheme ended, skewed towards sectors like aviation that are still far from reaching pre-pandemic levels of … Continued READ MORE
Labour market enforcement· Labour market· Low pay No shame, no gain? The role of reputation in labour market enforcement 9 November 2021 by Hannah Slaughter This briefing note is part of a three-year programme of research exploring labour market enforcement generously funded by Unbound Philanthropy. In it, we combine qualitative and quantitative research to explore how powerfully reputational concerns determine firms’ behaviour when it comes to worker rights, and whether policy makers could leverage firms’ worries about their public profile … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Living standards· Welfare Taper cut Analysis of the Autumn Budget changes to Universal Credit 6 November 2021 by Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb and Lalitha Try This briefing note looks at the changes to Universal Credit (UC) – the main benefit for low-income families – made by the Chancellor in the Autumn 2021 Budget. The reduction in the taper rate from 63 to 55 percent, and increase in the work allowance by £500 a year, represent a significant, permanent increase in … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Incomes· Economic growth Are you better off today? Real income growth under different governments since 1955 3 November 2021 by Adam Corlett In the 1980 presidential contest between the incumbent Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan, the latter asked voters “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”. Although far from the only question that voters do or should ask, it is a reasonable question. In the UK, since 1955, real household disposable income per … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances The Boris Budget Resolution Foundation analysis of Autumn Budget and Spending Review 2021 28 October 2021 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Kathleen Henehan and Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson and Lalitha Try This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the October 2021 Budget and Spending Review. The Chancellor has unveiled a career-defining third Budget against a backdrop of heightened uncertainty and risks. His aim: to draw a line under Covid-19, boost spending in the key priority areas yet also bear down on the … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Home is where the heat (pump) is The Government’s Heat and Buildings Strategy is a welcome step forward but lower-income households will need more support 21 October 2021 by Jonathan Marshall The Government’s recently released Heat and Buildings Strategy represents a much-needed step forward in plans to decarbonise Britain’s homes, a task likely to be one of the trickiest aspects of reaching net zero emissions. While much of the headlines have focused on heat pumps, the strategy contains welcome support for insulating social housing and the … Continued READ MORE
Intergenerational Centre An intergenerational audit for the UK 2021 21 October 2021 by Kathleen Henehan and Maja Gustafsson and Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Lalitha Try Our third Intergenerational Audit – supported by the Nuffield Foundation – provides an analysis of economic living standards across generations in Britain. In so doing, it analyses the latest data across four domains: Jobs, skills and pay Housing costs and security Taxes, benefits and household incomes Wealth and assets In each of these domains, we … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances The Uncertainty Principle Previewing the decisions to be taken at the Autumn Budget and Spending Review 2021 19 October 2021 by Jack Leslie and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson This report is our analysis of the economic and fiscal outlook ahead of the upcoming Autumn 2021 Budget – including what it will mean for the decisions the Chancellor will need to take at the Spending Review. The starting point for the Budget is that the economy is in a much stronger position than was … Continued READ MORE
Bills, bills, bills How rising energy costs will impact some more than others and what the Government can do about it 17 October 2021 by Jonathan Marshall Summary As winter approaches, millions of British households will be facing growing financial pressure. The combination of falling incomes, as the Covid-19 support schemes end, and rising inflation, driven by higher energy costs, means family budgets will be squeezed from all sides. The impacts of soaring global gas markets on the energy bills of millions … Continued READ MORE
Intergenerational Centre A return to boom and bust (in births) How birth cycles will affect public spending pressures over the coming decade 15 October 2021 by Maja Gustafsson and David Willetts The demographic impact of the Baby Boomer generation on public spending is frequently discussed as they move out of work and into retirement, but the most recent birth cycle – in which births hit a low point in 2002, a high point in 2012, and have been declining since – is having profound impacts on the education system. READ MORE
Economy 2030 Trading places Brexit and the path to longer-term improvements in living standards 14 October 2021 by Swati Dhingra and Josh De Lyon and Sophie Hale and James Smith This briefing note is the launch paper for the Brexit research theme of The Economy 2030 Inquiry, a joint project between the Resolution Foundation and the London School of Economics, funded by the Nuffield Foundation. It outlines how trade shapes, and is shaped by, wider changes to the economy, defining the nature of jobs for … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 The Carbon Crunch Turning targets into delivery 30 September 2021 by Jonathan Marshall This report is the launch paper for the net zero strand of the Economy 2030 Inquiry, a joint project between the Resolution Foundation and the London School of Economics. It outlines how net zero can be placed at the centre of the UK’s economic strategy and the importance of the next decade in getting back … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19 Job well done 18 months of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme 27 September 2021 by Daniel Tomlinson The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS) ends in just a few short days. Over the past 18 months, it has covered the wages of some 11.6 million people, and has provided for 2.3 billion days of furlough (both full and partial furlough) at a cost to the Government of almost £70 billion (in gross terms). … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Incomes· Living standards· Prices & consumption· Welfare The big squeeze Assessing the changes to family incomes over the next six months 26 September 2021 by Karl Handscomb This winter will see a major income squeeze – and it will be focused on low-to-middle income households. High inflation, especially higher energy bills, will strain many families’ finances. But these pressures will be compounded for over 4 million families when £20 a week is cut from Universal Credit in October 2021. Looking forward, April … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Work experiences Changes in the subjective experience of work 20 September 2021 by Krishan Shah and Daniel Tomlinson This paper is the first to be published as part of the Lived Experience theme of The Economy 2030 Inquiry. It explores the subjective experience of work to provide a rounded picture of the changing realities of employment as policy and the economy have evolved since the 1980s to the latter part of the 2010s. … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Nationally Insured? New taxes and new spending to address key Department for Health and Social Care priorities 8 September 2021 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Lindsay Judge and Krishan Shah and Daniel Tomlinson and Lalitha Try This note assesses the announcements made by the Government on the suspension of the Triple Lock, National Insurance rises, health and social care funding, and public spending totals for the rest of this Parliament made on 7 September 2021. READ MORE
Social care· Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances To govern is to choose The choices facing the Chancellor this autumn 6 September 2021 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett and Daniel Tomlinson The Chancellor has not had a quiet introduction to national policy making: overseeing 17 major fiscal announcements in as many months. This summer provided the first lull, driven by the success of vaccines and the understandable focus on Afghanistan. But the quiet phase is coming to an end. Alongside dealing with whatever new paths the … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market Labour Market Outlook Q3 2021 Prospects for unemployment after the Job Retention Scheme 5 September 2021 by Hannah Slaughter and Greg Thwaites As the economy has continued to reopen over the summer, the labour market has continued to surprise on the upside. After peaking at 5.2 per cent in Q4 2020, the headline unemployment rate has continued to fall, reaching 4.7 per cent in Q2 2021 – and timelier, though more volatile, single-month data has the unemployment … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Welfare· Intergenerational Centre Age-old or new-age? The changing incidence of social security benefits by age 27 August 2021 by Karl Handscomb and Lalitha Try At the start of the Covid-19 crisis, the number of families receiving income from the benefits system increased significantly, with 1.3 million more families receiving Universal Credit within three months – reversing a trend of a steady decline in families receiving benefits. In this briefing note, we examine the shift in the numbers of families … Continued READ MORE
Housing Housing Outlook Q3 2021 The effect of transaction tax holidays on house prices 21 August 2021 by Lindsay Judge and Felicia Odamtten and Krishan Shah Welcome to Housing Outlook Q3 2021. In this spotlight we turn our attention once again to the uncanny performance of house prices over the past year. In particular, we focus on the effect of transaction tax holidays across the UK. Introduced to stimulate the housing market in July last year, the Scottish and Welsh transaction … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Levelling up and down Britain How the labour market recovery varies across the country 12 August 2021 by Charlie McCurdy No part of the UK has been unaffected by the pandemic labour market shock, but both the initial hit and subsequent bounce-back have been uneven across places. Although employee numbers are back to pre-pandemic form in many parts of the country, in some regions (most notably, London) the jobs recovery has a long way to … Continued READ MORE
