Wealth & assets· Housing· Intergenerational Centre Stakes and ladders The costs and benefits of buying a first home over the generations 26 June 2021 by Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie Today’s young people often point bitterly to the lower house prices their parents and grandparents paid, while those from older generations look jealously at the low interest rates that first-time buyers now enjoy. So, who has really had the better deal? In this briefing note we assess the costs and benefits of buying one’s first home over the generations. READ MORE
Covid-19· Demographics· Labour market· Low pay· Intergenerational Centre Boom(erang) Time? An analysis of younger adults living with their parents 21 June 2021 by Maja Gustafsson Different data sources tell different stories about the share of younger people that have lived with their parents during the Covid-19 pandemic. However, even before the pandemic younger people on lower-pay and in more precarious forms of work were more likely to live with their parents. READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q2 2021 20 June 2021 by James Smith Worries about rising inflation are spreading. In this edition of our regular Macro Policy Outlook we draw a comparison between the UK and the US. Our analysis points to a sharp rise in UK inflation in the coming months, possibly to over 4 per cent. If realised, this would be more than twice the rate … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Pay Labour Market Outlook Q2 2021 Q2 2021 14 June 2021 by Hannah Slaughter As Covid-19 restrictions begin to ease and more sectors begin to reopen, there are positive signs of recovery in the labour market. The number of payrolled employees has begun to increase (although it is still 700,000 lower than it was in early 2020); furlough rates are falling; and vacancies have recovered to pre-crisis levels. Despite … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Low pay· Pay Low Pay Britain 2021 7 June 2021 by Nye Cominetti and Charlie McCurdy and Hannah Slaughter This year’s Low Pay Britain report looks at the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on those on low pay and what that might mean for such workers as the economy starts to recover. Workers in lower paid jobs have faced greater health and economic risks than high paid workers; central to whether this is a … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Four of a kind Analysis of trade union membership statistics 27 May 2021 by Daniel Tomlinson The Covid-19 labour market shock has changed many things, but one little-noticed pre-pandemic trend has continued: a steady increase in trade union membership. Over the past year the number of employees who are members of unions has increased by 118,000. This is the fourth year in a row in which membership has increased among employees. … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 The UK’s decisive decade The launch report for The Economy 2030 Inquiry 18 May 2021 by Greg Thwaites and Daniel Tomlinson This report marks the launch of The Economy 2030 Inquiry, a landmark collaboration between the Resolution Foundation and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, funded by the Nuffield Foundation. READ MORE
Covid-19 Tackling Covid-19: A case for better financial support to self-isolate 14 May 2021 by Sarah Reed and William Palmer and Mike Brewer and Maja Gustafsson Self-isolation remains vital for curbing Covid-19 transmission, but rates of compliance are worryingly low. This report considers how the Government could further expand financial support for self-isolation so as not to risk undermining the vaccine rollout and exit from lockdown. READ MORE
Labour market Double trouble Exploring the labour market and mental health impact of Covid-19 on young people 13 May 2021 by Rukmen Sehmi and Hannah Slaughter This report marks the beginning of a three-year programme of research at the Resolution Foundation investigating the relationship between the labour market and mental health outcomes of young people. In this launch paper, we focus on how young people have fared throughout the pandemic period when it comes to work and mental health. READ MORE
Ventures· Living standards Shock absorbers Innovating to boost financial resilience in Europe 4 May 2021 by Louise Marston This paper reviews the potential for innovation to address financial resilience problems in France, Germany and the UK, emerging from the Covid-19 crisis, and sets out a framework of supply and demand to look at innovative approaches to financial resilience. It applies this framework to France, Germany and the UK, and makes suggestions as to how innovation could best be supported in future. READ MORE
Housing Housing Outlook Q2 2021 The impact of Covid-19 on housing demand across the UK 1 May 2021 by Lindsay Judge and Cara Pacitti In Housing Outlook this quarter, we consider how Covid-19 has affected housing demand across the UK. In the absence of good rental data, we look below the surface of rising house prices, and consider the impact of home working and lockdowns, as well as Government policy, on housing preferences. Studies for the US suggest that … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Welfare In need of support? Lessons from the Covid-19 crisis for our social security system 29 April 2021 by Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb and Krishan Shah This briefing note looks at the lessons we have learnt about the UK’s welfare system over the course of the Covid-19 crisis so far, and what those lessons might mean for its future direction. The £111 billion spent so far on supporting incomes during the pandemic should remind us of the importance of welfare systems. … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Intergenerational Centre A U-shaped crisis The impact of the Covid-19 crisis on older workers 26 April 2021 by Nye Cominetti It is well established that the Covid-19 crisis has generated substantially large employment affects for young people in the UK. However, older workers have also been severely affected, more so than middle-career workers, even if not as badly as the young. This briefing note examines the impact of the crisis on older workers, assesses the … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Incomes· Pensions & savings· Labour market After shocks Financial resilience before and during the Covid-19 crisis 21 April 2021 by Maja Gustafsson and Kathleen Henehan and Fahmida Rahman and Daniel Tomlinson This report provides some of the first evidence on how the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on households has differed across countries. It studies the living standards-related factors that contribute to financial resilience (or the lack of it) both before and during Covid-19 in the UK, France and Germany. Overall, we find that pre-crisis vulnerabilities … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Skills· Intergenerational Centre Uneven steps Changes in youth unemployment and study since the onset of Covid-19 14 April 2021 by Kathleen Henehan In order to reduce the spread of Covid-19, and thereby save lives, large sectors of the UK economy were temporarily shut down during parts of 2020 and 2021. Although unemployment rose by less than anticipated during this period, with the unemployment rate among people aged 16 and older rising by just over one percentage point … Continued READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q1 2021 7 April 2021 by James Smith In this edition of our regular Macro Policy Outlook, we focus on the single biggest measure announced in the recent Budget to boost business investment, a long-running part of the UK’s macroeconomic weakness. The Government’s ‘super deduction’ policy is an innovative way to achieve this, allowing firms to write off an unprecedented 130 per cent … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Migration Migration during the pandemic Have 1.3 million migrants really left the country? 22 March 2021 by Greg Thwaites According to the Labour Force Survey (LFS), the number of people living in the UK but born overseas fell by approximately 1 million between the first and third quarters of 2020, while the number of UK-born UK residents in this same category band rose by 1.3 million over the same period. Some have cast doubt … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Pay Earnings Outlook Q1 2021 Earnings in the Covid-19 crisis 22 March 2021 by Hannah Slaughter The UK has spent the first quarter of 2021 under renewed restrictions to slow the spread of Covid-19. As the third England-wide lockdown began in January, many businesses were forced to close once again, and the number of jobs furloughed through the Job Retention Scheme (JRS) rose to 4.8 million. There is growing light at … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Public spending The 12-month stretch Where the Government has delivered – and where it has failed – during the Covid-19 crisis 18 March 2021 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer This note explores the big picture of how policy makers have responded to the pandemic over the past 12 months, taking a step back to explore what they have done, and what that has done to health and economic outcomes. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Spending fast, taxing slow Resolution Foundation analysis of Budget 2021 4 March 2021 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Kathleen Henehan and Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Daniel Tomlinson This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the March 2021 Budget. The context for this Budget was an intensification of the Covid-19 pandemic, creating a need for further policy measures to support families and firms in the months before the completion of the vaccine rollout. In response, the Chancellor announced significant … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy How to throw good money after good Budget 2021 and the challenge of delivering a rapid recovery from Covid-19 25 February 2021 by Jack Leslie and Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti and James Smith While the strength of the economic recovery from Covid-19 will depend on the vaccine rollout and the Government’s ‘road map’ for easing social distancing restrictions, it will also depend on decisions taken at the Budget which are the economic counterpart to that reopening plan. This paper assesses the economic context to the Budget: how the … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Covid-19· Welfare Half-measures The Chancellor’s options for Universal Credit in the Budget 19 February 2021 by Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb The Government has still to decide on whether to continue the £20 per week uplift to Universal Credit (UC) and Working Tax Credit (WTC), due to expire in just 45 days. There are suggestions the Chancellor will opt for a halfway house of keeping the uplift for six months. Compared to the pencilled-in default of … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market Long Covid in the labour market The impact on the labour market of Covid-19 a year into the crisis, and how to secure a strong recovery 17 February 2021 by Nye Cominetti and Kathleen Henehan and Hannah Slaughter and Greg Thwaites This is the third time we have written a report taking stock of the impact of the virus on the labour market. Nine months on from our first report in June last year, some things are similar. The health effects of the second wave may be starting to recede, and thoughts are again turning to … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Housing Getting ahead on falling behind Tackling the UK’s building arrears crisis 16 February 2021 by Lindsay Judge This briefing note examines how families have managed their housing costs over the Covid-19 period. Although the Government has done much to support families over the past year (not least via the furlough scheme and the £20 per week uplift to UC), it is clear that financial strain has grown as the pandemic has worn … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Firms· Economic growth On firm ground? The impact of Covid-19 on firms and what policy makers should do in response 10 February 2021 by Nye Cominetti and Jack Leslie and James Smith The coronavirus crisis has had huge repercussions across the economy, and the corporate sector is no exception. This paper analyses how the crisis has affected firms’ finances, puts that in context compared to previous recessions, and assesses the ability of firms to contribute to the post-crisis recovery. This is important because firms’ investment and hiring … Continued READ MORE
