General Election 2024· Living standards Hard times Assessing household incomes since 2010 28 June 2024 by Adam Corlett and Lalitha Try This briefing note is part of the Resolution Foundation’s ‘Need to Know Election 2024’ series and examines how income growth, poverty and inequality have changed over the last Parliament and since 2010. At the General Election, living standards growth should be on the agenda for any party wishing to form the next government. This is … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Living standards· Intergenerational Centre Old age tendencies The impact of tax and benefit changes on intergenerational fairness ahead of the 2024 general election 26 June 2024 by Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Sophie Hale and Charlie McCurdy In this Spotlight we look at the impact of spending, tax and benefit decisions taken since 2010 through the lens of intergenerational fairness. What stands out in this context is the increase in the generosity of the State Pension, which has led to a £44 billion increase in spending, benefiting older age groups. By contrast, … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Labour market Job done? Assessing the labour market since 2010 and the challenges for the next government 25 June 2024 by Nye Cominetti and Hannah Slaughter The record on the labour market since 2010 is mixed – strong employment growth (albeit a partial reversal post-pandemic), alongside a 14-year real wage stagnation. On their plans for the future, the Conservative party would stick with the status quo, while Labour propose the biggest overhaul of labour market policy in a generation, including a higher minimum wage and a ‘day one’ right to protection from unfair dismissal. READ MORE
General Election 2024· Public spending· Welfare Under strain Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits 20 June 2024 by Lindsay Judge and Louise Murphy The benefits bill is frequently the subject of intense political debate. But since the pandemic, working-age health-related benefits have moved centre-stage in these discussions, as policy makers aim to understand what sits behind the historical rise in claims, and to contain future pressures too. In this briefing note – part of our Election 2024 work … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Housing· Political parties and elections Home truths Putting housing policy in context for the 2024 general election 19 June 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Lindsay Judge and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti The housing offers from both main parties for the 2024 general election are similar in many respects, suggesting that the ‘penny has dropped’ when it comes to boosting housing supply, supporting would-be homeowners, and improving the energy efficiency of our country’s housing stock. As well as a broad consensus forming around some housing policy areas, … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Tax· Welfare· Political parties and elections Growing for gold? Analysing the tax and spend package of the 2024 Labour Manifesto 14 June 2024 by Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Emily Fry and Tara Goatley and Charlie McCurdy and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Lalitha Try In launching its manifesto, the Labour Party put the emphasis on efforts to boost growth. But more eye-catching were promises of some of the biggest changes to the labour market in a generation, with the aim of improving the quality of work. Proposals here included new employment rights, tougher labour-market enforcement, and an innovative approach … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024 The economic battle lines of the general election Analysing the Conservative and Labour party manifestos 14 June 2024 by Mike Brewer The manifestos are out; the serious wonk business can begin. If you haven’t had a chance to digest the fine detail of the parties’ manifestos, you’re in luck. We had a go for you. This spotlight parcels up the main takeaways. For reasons of length, we’re focusing on the main two parties, but obviously other … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· General Election 2024· Welfare Ratchets, retrenchment and reform The social security system since 2010 13 June 2024 by Mike Brewer and Alex Clegg Spending on social security as a share of GDP has risen slightly since the financial crisis, but the system in Great Britain has undergone profound change over the same time. Large-scale structural reforms have fundamentally altered the system’s rules for working-age families, while working-age benefits have been both cut back and then not fully indexed … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Tax· Welfare· Political parties and elections The narrow path to NICs cuts Analysing the tax and spend package of the 2024 Conservative Manifesto 12 June 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Emma Beale and Molly Broome and Lindsay Judge and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Simon Pittaway and James Smith and Lalitha Try The launch of the Conservative manifesto is a big moment in this election campaign. The strategy here was clear: treble down on National Insurance (NI) rate cuts. The continued focus on NI is welcome, at least compared to the alternatives, and delivers significant cuts in tax for some, with the proposed 2p reduction delivering a … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Brexit & trade· Economic growth Life in the slow lane Assessing the UK’s economic and trade performance since 2010 9 June 2024 by Emily Fry and Simon Pittaway and Greg Thwaites This briefing note is the third output in a programme of outputs designed to put the upcoming UK general election in context, supported by the Nuffield Foundation. It looks at the performance of the UK economy and trade since 2010. The UK grew faster than other G7 economies in the first quarter of 2024 but, … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Tax Hiding in plain sight The Government’s record on taxes and the challenges ahead 8 June 2024 by Adam Corlett In this briefing note – part of a programme of outputs supported by the Nuffield Foundation to put the upcoming UK general election in context – we consider some of the key tax questions for the 2024 general election and beyond. Has the government raised people’s taxes or lowered them? How different are the parties’ … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Tax An inherited problem 7 June 2024 by Molly Broome There has been recent speculation that the Conservative Party might announce that they intend to abolish – or significantly reduce – Inheritance Tax (IHT) if re-elected. Calls for cutting or abolishing IHT are frequent, given the tax’s unpopularity – despite the fact that only a small minority of people will ever be likely to pay … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Public spending· Economy and public finances Debt dramas Putting the public finances in context ahead of general election 2024 4 June 2024 by Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti and James Smith The public finances have already emerged as a key issue in this election. So, in this briefing note, we step back and ask how we got to where we are today, discuss where the public finances might be heading, and consider what this means for whoever forms the next government. READ MORE
General Election 2024· Pensions & savings· Tax Under triple lock and key What would a ‘triple-lock-plus’ policy look like? 29 May 2024 by Mike Brewer and Alex Clegg The Conservative Party has announced that, if re-elected, it intends to increase the personal allowance for pensioners in line with the triple lock – a policy which has been referred to as ‘triple lock plus’, or the ‘quadruple lock’. We’ve had a look at the costs and impacts of such a policy, and how it … Continued READ MORE
Prices & consumption Paying the price How the inflation surge has reshaped the British economy 17 May 2024 by Nye Cominetti and Ian Mulheirn and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and James Smith The UK has experienced its highest inflation for more than 40 years, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But next week will bring the welcome news that inflation has returned close to the 2 per cent target for the first time since July 2021. In this briefing note we take a step back and look at … Continued READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q2 2024 13 May 2024 by Greg Thwaites Real wages – measured in terms of the goods that workers can buy with their regular wages – rose by around 2 per cent in the year to February 2024. This is much faster than the average in recent years – real wages did not grow at all in the preceding 16 years. The positive … Continued READ MORE
Firms· Labour market Firm foundations Understanding why employers use flexible contracts 25 April 2024 by Hannah Slaughter At the end of 2023, more than one-in-eight (13 per cent) employees in UK were working on some form of flexible contract that can be viewed as ‘precarious’, accounting for 3.8 million workers nationwide. From variable-hours and zero-hours contracts to temporary work such as casual, seasonal or short-term employment, flexible contracts often entail considerable uncertainty … Continued READ MORE
Net zero Electric dreams How can we decarbonise electricity without disadvantaging poorer families? 22 April 2024 by Emily Fry and Jonathan Marshall A low carbon electricity system will underpin the UK’s journey to net zero, making the electricity we use today greener but also fuelling our cars and keeping us warm at home in decades to come. But this overhaul of our energy system requires a significant step change in investment, with the costs of this spending … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Welfare In credit? Assessing where Universal Credit’s long roll-out has left the benefit system and the country 15 April 2024 by Alex Clegg With neither of the main parties wanting to scrap Universal Credit, whoever wins the election will be governing a ‘Universal Credit Britain’, as the final stage of what has been the biggest benefit reform in a generation is due to end with a system covering 7 million families by 2029. But it is nearly 14 years … Continued READ MORE
Housing Through the roof Recent trends in rental-price growth 8 April 2024 by Cara Pacitti In the context of the significant rental-price growth the UK has experienced over the past two years, this briefing note looks at possible causes, and what we can expect looking ahead. READ MORE
Pensions & savings· Wealth & assets Ineffective Savings Accounts 6 April 2024 by Molly Broome Today marks the beginning of a new ISA (Individual Savings Account) year with savers able to squirrel away up to £20,000 over the next year, with the returns being completely tax free. This is the Government’s flagship policy to promote saving – with around 12 million adults benefiting in 2021-22. But while the policy is … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances· Tax· Welfare Happy new tax year Six big changes to pay, tax and benefit policy – and how they affect households across Britain 28 March 2024 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett and Alex Clegg The beginning of April brings a new tax year, and a flurry of tax, benefit and pay policy changes coming into effect. Benefit levels are finally returning to their pre-pandemic levels after a difficult few years. Threshold freezes will continue to pull more people into paying tax, but the tax they pay on every extra … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market Labour Market Outlook Q2 2024 Happy 25th birthday to the minimum wage 27 March 2024 by Nye Cominetti and Hannah Slaughter This year’s minimum wage uprating is large: roughly 1.6 million workers stand to benefit directly on 1 April when the adult rate rises to £11.44 – giving a cash increase of 9.8 per cent and a real-terms increase of 7.8 per cent. These are the third largest annual increases in the minimum wage’s history. 1 … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Housing Housing Outlook Q1 2024 25 March 2024 by Lindsay Judge and Adam Corlett Welcome to our first Housing Outlook in what looks set to be an election year, and one where housing could well be a prominent issue. This quarter, we consider whether the UK’s housing woes are shared by other developed economies, or if the issues of housing affordability and quality we highlight so frequently are distinctly … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Wellbeing and mental health A U-shaped legacy Taking stock of trends in economic inactivity in 2024 23 March 2024 by Louise Murphy In an election year, jobs and benefits are often centre stage. Alongside the UK’s stagnant wage growth, there is one big issue that will face the next government: the rises in economic inactivity and health-related benefit claims. Real pay growth, unemployment and vacancies have all returned roughly to 2019 rates. But there is one aspect … Continued READ MORE
