Labour Market Outlook· Labour market Labour Market Outlook Q4 2024 30 December 2024 by Nye Cominetti and Hannah Slaughter In this Labour Market Outlook, we examine how the Government should approach extending Statutory Sick Pay (SSP) to the lowest earners, and in particular what replacement rate – the proportion of their earnings that workers will get while off sick – to set for those workers who will be newly eligible. There is a clear … Continued READ MORE
Paid in full The perils facing pre-payment energy customers this winter 24 December 2024 by Jonathan Marshall As we move into the depths of winter, energy costs remain close to the top of the political agenda. But one vulnerable group – the 4 million UK households who pay for energy via pre-payment meters (PPMs) – remains overlooked in the national debate. High prices and the concentration of energy use in the winter … Continued READ MORE
Housing· Intergenerational Centre Housing hurdles The changing housing circumstances of young people in Britain 20 December 2024 by Iman Acharya and Molly Broome The recent uptick in home ownership rates and fall in the share of income spent on housing among 25-34-year-olds represent a remarkably positive development in the largely bleak landscape of youth home ownership. However, these developments do not capture the full picture of the housing market for young people. This note explores recent changes in … Continued READ MORE
Unsung Britain· Labour market A hard day’s night The labour market experience of low-to-middle income families 12 December 2024 by Nye Cominetti and Louise Murphy This report describes the labour market experiences of low-to-middle income families and how these have changed over the past quarter century. It explores those families’ employment, pay, experiences at work, and their feelings about changing jobs and progressing in work. READ MORE
Productivity & industrial strategy The art of strategy How to make a success of the Government’s new Industrial Strategy 9 December 2024 by Greg Thwaites and David Willetts This report critiques the Government’s Invest 2035 industrial strategy Green Paper. It calls for investing in better data and workforce skills, using public procurement as an instrument, and leaning in to the trade-offs when allocating public investment across regions and industries. READ MORE
Housing Housing Outlook Q4 2024 7 December 2024 by Alex Clegg and Lindsay Judge Welcome to our final Housing Outlook of 2024.[1] This quarter, we turn our attention to those families with children whose housing costs push them below the poverty line. We start by noting 1.1 million children in the UK today live in a household whose income would not fall below the poverty line if housing costs … Continued READ MORE
Aiming high? Assessing the Government’s new targets for its growth mission 5 December 2024 by Adam Corlett and Simon Pittaway and James Smith In government, priorities matter. And today the Government underscored its key priorities, announcing six ‘milestones’ for its six missions. When it comes to its mission for growth, there has been a welcome shift in focus towards living standards. Alongside growing GDP per capita, the Government has also committed to raising real household disposable income (RHDI) per person over the course of this Parliament. The inclusion of this measure of income should focus minds in Whitehall on ensuring growth that delivers higher income and, ultimately, better living standards for families. READ MORE
Trading blows How should Britain buy and sell in a turbulent world? 4 December 2024 by Emily Fry and Sophie Hale Recently the UK has faced tough times in trade, juggling twin shocks of Brexit and Covid. While service exports have stayed strong, goods trade has struggled. With a possible further disruption to goods trade around the corner in the form of universal Trump tariffs, this briefing asks what our economic experience of the first two … Continued READ MORE
Wealth & assets Inequality control Why wealth inequality has not increased while asset prices have soared and what that means for the future 28 November 2024 by Simon Pittaway The turbulent 2020s have had profound implications for household wealth in Britain: lockdowns pushed saving to unprecedented highs, asset prices surged and then tanked, and high inflation eroded the real value of wealth. This recent turbulence came on the back of decades of rising wealth. But, unlike elsewhere, relative wealth inequality in Britain did not soar during the era of rapidly rising wealth. This report discusses what lies behind this puzzling stability, which is key to understanding the reality of wealth inequality in Britain today and how it might evolve in future. READ MORE
Intergenerational Centre An intergenerational audit for the UK 2024 21 November 2024 by Molly Broome and Sophie Hale and Hannah Slaughter The sixth Intergenerational Audit for the UK, produced as part of the ESRC-funded Connecting Generations research programme, evaluates the economic importance of intergenerational exchanges including housing assistance, childcare and other unpaid care, and financial aid such as gifts and inheritances. READ MORE
Labour market Get Britain’s Stats Working Exploring alternatives to Labour Force Survey estimates 20 November 2024 by Adam Corlett Given continued concern about the accuracy of many of the UK’s existing labour market statistics, this report presents an alternative assessment of what may have happened to employment, unemployment and inactivity rates since 2019. READ MORE
Unsung Britain· Living standards· Demographics Unsung Britain The changing economic circumstances of the poorer half of Britain 13 November 2024 by Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Lalitha Try This report marks the launch of Unsung Britain, a one-year research programme designed to understand the economic circumstances of today’s low-to-middle income families and how these have changed in recent decades, with support from JPMorganChase. READ MORE
Childcare· Welfare Hard lessons Childcare support for parents in education 9 November 2024 by Lalitha Try England’s childcare system has often been subject to criticism, but government funding has been increased in recent years, especially for parents who work[1]. At the same time, there has been no such increase in support for parents that wish to boost their living standards longer term by undertaking education or training. The childcare system in … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax More, more, more Putting the Autumn Budget 2024 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context 31 October 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This has been the most anticipated Budget of modern times. It had to wrestle with profound – and sometimes conflicting – challenges: fixing the strained public services; repairing failing public services; and breaking with the UK’s dire record on public investment. And all of this had to be squared with pre-election pledges not to raise … Continued READ MORE
Living Wage Calculating the Real Living Wage for London and the rest of the UK: 2024 23 October 2024 by Nye Cominetti and Louise Murphy This report sets out the method through which the Living Wage rates – a voluntary hourly pay rate that is based on what families need to get by – in London and the rest of the UK are calculated by the Resolution Foundation, and overseen by the Living Wage Commission on behalf of the Living Wage Foundation. These … Continued READ MORE
Net zero Getting the green light The path to a fair transition for the transport sector 17 October 2024 by Adam Corlett and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall Transport is now the largest component of the UK’s carbon footprint, and rapid decarbonisation will significantly change how people travel. This report examines squares up to the three main modes of travel – cars, public transport, and aviation – and assesses how emissions can be reduced while ensuring that both the costs and benefits of cheaper travel are shared fairly. READ MORE
Five challenges· Budgets & fiscal events Great expectations in hard times? Previewing the big decisions for the Chancellor in the new Government’s first Budget 14 October 2024 by Emily Fry and Cara Pacitti and James Smith In this briefing note, we put the big decisions faced by Chancellor in the new Government’s pivotal first Budget into context, discussing the new – and old – spending pressures faced, how the economic outlook has changed, and what all means for the public finances. READ MORE
Welfare Cutbacks ahead Considering the impact of proposed changes to disability benefits on living standards and the public finances 13 October 2024 by Mike Brewer and Louise Murphy The Chancellor has already come under pressure for making one welfare cut to help her address the challenging fiscal outlook in the run up to her first Budget – but there are more in store due to spending commitments inherited from the previous Government. Specifically, if the Government goes ahead with changes to the Work … Continued READ MORE
Pensions & savings Perfectly adequate? Revisiting pensions adequacy 20 years after the Pensions Commission 10 October 2024 by Molly Broome and Ian Mulheirn In 2002, the Labour Government established the Pensions Commission to review the UK’s private pensions system and make recommendations for reform. Twenty years on from the Commission’s landmark first report, the auto-enrolment pension regime it proposed has finally come to fruition, revolutionising pension coverage in the UK. But alongside the rollout of this pioneering policy, … Continued READ MORE
Brexit & trade EU-turn Resetting the UK-EU relationship through strategic dynamic alignment 9 October 2024 by Sophie Hale The Government has pledged to reset its relationship with the EU, promising growth dividends from stronger ties, regulatory cooperation and enhanced trade opportunities for UK firms. Despite this EU-friendly rhetoric, Labour’s “red lines” remain firm, limiting its ability to deliver economic growth by delivering substantially different trading arrangements. But by focusing on practical adjustments without … Continued READ MORE
Fiscal policy Over-ruled? Assessing the options for changing the fiscal rules 4 October 2024 by Cara Pacitti and James Smith Although the Chancellor said she would stick with the previous Government’s much-criticised rule of reducing public debt in the fifth year of the forecast, Rachel Reeves’s conference speech has sparked a debate about whether the fiscal rules should be changed to allow the Government to borrow more. Three options have been mooted for changing the … Continued READ MORE
Inequality & poverty· Welfare Cold comfort Mitigating the Winter Fuel Payment cut 1 October 2024 by Alex Clegg and Jonathan Marshall The announcement that Winter Fuel Payments are to be restricted to recipients of Pension Credit or similar means-tested benefits has sparked controversy[1]. The Government and its defenders point to the lack of sense, in these straitened times, of making fuel payments to all pensioners when the majority do not need them. Opponents, however, highlight the … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Skills Labour Market Outlook Q3 2024 The Growth and Skills Levy 28 September 2024 by Sofia Corcoran and Louise Murphy In its first few months in office, the new Labour Government has announced a host of new skills policies. [1] Arguably the most high-profile of these is the planned new “flexible” Growth and Skills Levy, replacing the previous Government’s Apprenticeship Levy. There are good reasons to consider changing the Levy: apprenticeships aren’t currently doing a … Continued READ MORE
Five challenges· Economic growth The growth mindset Sizing up the Government’s growth agenda 19 September 2024 by Emily Fry and Greg Thwaites This report evaluates the UK government’s growth agenda, focusing on policies in infrastructure, housing, and trade. It highlights potential productivity gains and suggests broader reforms to meet ambitious growth targets, aiming to position the UK as the fastest-growing G7 economy. READ MORE
Five challenges· Housing Building blocks Assessing the role of planning reform in meeting the Government’s housing targets 12 September 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Jonathan Marshall and Cara Pacitti The Government has prioritised planning reform as its key policy lever to deliver an ambitious target of 1.5 million additional homes by the end of this Parliament. This note explores the extent to which the proposed reforms to the planning system will help reach this target, while also highlighting other constraints on housing supply that … Continued READ MORE
