Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q1 2025 30 January 2025 by Simon Pittaway and James Smith It has been a bleak winter for the Government’s hopes that the economy might turn a corner. Markets have been volatile, with the cost of government borrowing rising to its highest level since July 2008 with the pound falling sharply. And there are signs that growth has hit a brick wall, with GDP flat in … Continued READ MORE
Wealth & assets What’s up? Five key takeaways from new data on household wealth on the eve of the cost of living crisis 24 January 2025 by Molly Broome and Simon Pittaway Today’s release of long-awaited data from the Wealth and Assets Survey (WAS) allows us to finally shed more light on family finances during the Covid-19 pandemic. It shows that total household wealth continued to grow faster than the size of the economy – a trend dating back to the mid-1980s. Total household wealth reached a … Continued READ MORE
Social mobility Are universities worth it? A review of the evidence and policy options 20 January 2025 by David Willetts Young graduates earn £5,000 more annually than non-graduates, but that premium is lower than it was 10 years ago. The real earnings of young graduates have been broadly flat over the last decade, similar to earnings overall, whereas non-graduate earnings have been boosted by the minimum wage. But graduates individually do continue to enjoy rises … Continued READ MORE
Housing The Resolution Foundation Housing Outlook Q1 2025 15 January 2025 by Cara Pacitti Right to Buy has been a cornerstone of housing policy in England since its introduction in 1980, and has enabled over two million council tenants to purchase their homes at a substantial discount. The scheme has boosted home ownership and democratised wealth, especially for early buyers, but the long-term failure to replace the homes sold … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Prices & consumption Whose price is it anyway? Comparing the spending power of low-to-middle income families in Britain and abroad 13 January 2025 by Zaynah Janan and Simon Pittaway A long-standing finding is that British households on low-to-middle incomes are poorer than their counterparts in many advanced economies.[1] This result comes from comparing the incomes of this group to price levels in their respective countries. But these price measures typically reflect the spending of all families, not just those on low-to-middle incomes. In this … Continued READ MORE
Demographics Ageing in the fast and slow lane Examining geographic gaps in ageing 8 January 2025 by Charlie McCurdy Like most countries, the UK is ageing – over the past five decades its median age has risen from 34 to 41. This deep demographic trend has all sorts of implications for public policy, not least the need to find greater resources to provide care for a growing elderly population. What is less well appreciated is that this ageing is playing out differently in different parts of the country – both in terms of places’ age profile, but also in terms of the rate at which places are ageing. This report explores these trends and draws out some implications for local public services. READ MORE
Living standards Public pivot How a growing state will shape the living standards outlook for 2025 7 January 2025 by Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett and Louise Murphy and Simon Pittaway and Imogen Stone and Greg Thwaites 2025 will be a year with a bigger role for the state. Jeremy Hunt cut taxes in his last two Budgets and planned to pay for them with real-terms cuts to public spending in many areas. Rachel Reeves’s October Budget reversed these plans, pivoting to increasing spending on public services as a share of the … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty Working poverty out The role of employment and progression in a child poverty strategy 6 January 2025 by Mike Brewer and Alex Clegg The Government is committed to releasing a child poverty strategy later this year. As part of this, Ministers will want to consider how best parental employment can help boost family incomes. But the mid-2020s present a different landscape for child poverty and parental employment from when the last Labour Government crafted its child poverty strategy. … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market Labour Market Outlook Q4 2024 30 December 2024 by Nye Cominetti and Hannah Slaughter In this Labour Market Outlook, we examine how the Government should approach extending Statutory Sick Pay (SSP) to the lowest earners, and in particular what replacement rate – the proportion of their earnings that workers will get while off sick – to set for those workers who will be newly eligible. There is a clear … Continued READ MORE
Paid in full The perils facing pre-payment energy customers this winter 24 December 2024 by Jonathan Marshall As we move into the depths of winter, energy costs remain close to the top of the political agenda. But one vulnerable group – the 4 million UK households who pay for energy via pre-payment meters (PPMs) – remains overlooked in the national debate. High prices and the concentration of energy use in the winter … Continued READ MORE
Housing· Intergenerational Centre Housing hurdles The changing housing circumstances of young people in Britain 20 December 2024 by Iman Acharya and Molly Broome The recent uptick in home ownership rates and fall in the share of income spent on housing among 25-34-year-olds represent a remarkably positive development in the largely bleak landscape of youth home ownership. However, these developments do not capture the full picture of the housing market for young people. This note explores recent changes in … Continued READ MORE
Unsung Britain· Labour market A hard day’s night The labour market experience of low-to-middle income families 12 December 2024 by Nye Cominetti and Louise Murphy This report describes the labour market experiences of low-to-middle income families and how these have changed over the past quarter century. It explores those families’ employment, pay, experiences at work, and their feelings about changing jobs and progressing in work. READ MORE
Productivity & industrial strategy The art of strategy How to make a success of the Government’s new Industrial Strategy 9 December 2024 by Greg Thwaites and David Willetts This report critiques the Government’s Invest 2035 industrial strategy Green Paper. It calls for investing in better data and workforce skills, using public procurement as an instrument, and leaning in to the trade-offs when allocating public investment across regions and industries. READ MORE
Housing Housing Outlook Q4 2024 7 December 2024 by Alex Clegg and Lindsay Judge Welcome to our final Housing Outlook of 2024.[1] This quarter, we turn our attention to those families with children whose housing costs push them below the poverty line. We start by noting 1.1 million children in the UK today live in a household whose income would not fall below the poverty line if housing costs … Continued READ MORE
Aiming high? Assessing the Government’s new targets for its growth mission 5 December 2024 by Adam Corlett and Simon Pittaway and James Smith In government, priorities matter. And today the Government underscored its key priorities, announcing six ‘milestones’ for its six missions. When it comes to its mission for growth, there has been a welcome shift in focus towards living standards. Alongside growing GDP per capita, the Government has also committed to raising real household disposable income (RHDI) per person over the course of this Parliament. The inclusion of this measure of income should focus minds in Whitehall on ensuring growth that delivers higher income and, ultimately, better living standards for families. READ MORE
Trading blows How should Britain buy and sell in a turbulent world? 4 December 2024 by Emily Fry and Sophie Hale Recently the UK has faced tough times in trade, juggling twin shocks of Brexit and Covid. While service exports have stayed strong, goods trade has struggled. With a possible further disruption to goods trade around the corner in the form of universal Trump tariffs, this briefing asks what our economic experience of the first two … Continued READ MORE
Wealth & assets Inequality control Why wealth inequality has not increased while asset prices have soared and what that means for the future 28 November 2024 by Simon Pittaway The turbulent 2020s have had profound implications for household wealth in Britain: lockdowns pushed saving to unprecedented highs, asset prices surged and then tanked, and high inflation eroded the real value of wealth. This recent turbulence came on the back of decades of rising wealth. But, unlike elsewhere, relative wealth inequality in Britain did not soar during the era of rapidly rising wealth. This report discusses what lies behind this puzzling stability, which is key to understanding the reality of wealth inequality in Britain today and how it might evolve in future. READ MORE
Intergenerational Centre An intergenerational audit for the UK 2024 21 November 2024 by Molly Broome and Sophie Hale and Hannah Slaughter The sixth Intergenerational Audit for the UK, produced as part of the ESRC-funded Connecting Generations research programme, evaluates the economic importance of intergenerational exchanges including housing assistance, childcare and other unpaid care, and financial aid such as gifts and inheritances. READ MORE
Labour market Get Britain’s Stats Working Exploring alternatives to Labour Force Survey estimates 20 November 2024 by Adam Corlett Given continued concern about the accuracy of many of the UK’s existing labour market statistics, this report presents an alternative assessment of what may have happened to employment, unemployment and inactivity rates since 2019. READ MORE
Unsung Britain· Living standards· Demographics Unsung Britain The changing economic circumstances of the poorer half of Britain 13 November 2024 by Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Lalitha Try This report marks the launch of Unsung Britain, a one-year research programme designed to understand the economic circumstances of today’s low-to-middle income families and how these have changed in recent decades, with support from JPMorganChase. READ MORE
Childcare· Welfare Hard lessons Childcare support for parents in education 9 November 2024 by Lalitha Try England’s childcare system has often been subject to criticism, but government funding has been increased in recent years, especially for parents who work[1]. At the same time, there has been no such increase in support for parents that wish to boost their living standards longer term by undertaking education or training. The childcare system in … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax More, more, more Putting the Autumn Budget 2024 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context 31 October 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This has been the most anticipated Budget of modern times. It had to wrestle with profound – and sometimes conflicting – challenges: fixing the strained public services; repairing failing public services; and breaking with the UK’s dire record on public investment. And all of this had to be squared with pre-election pledges not to raise … Continued READ MORE
Living Wage Calculating the Real Living Wage for London and the rest of the UK: 2024 23 October 2024 by Nye Cominetti and Louise Murphy This report sets out the method through which the Living Wage rates – a voluntary hourly pay rate that is based on what families need to get by – in London and the rest of the UK are calculated by the Resolution Foundation, and overseen by the Living Wage Commission on behalf of the Living Wage Foundation. These … Continued READ MORE
Net zero Getting the green light The path to a fair transition for the transport sector 17 October 2024 by Adam Corlett and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall Transport is now the largest component of the UK’s carbon footprint, and rapid decarbonisation will significantly change how people travel. This report examines squares up to the three main modes of travel – cars, public transport, and aviation – and assesses how emissions can be reduced while ensuring that both the costs and benefits of cheaper travel are shared fairly. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events Great expectations in hard times? Previewing the big decisions for the Chancellor in the new Government’s first Budget 14 October 2024 by Emily Fry and Cara Pacitti and James Smith In this briefing note, we put the big decisions faced by Chancellor in the new Government’s pivotal first Budget into context, discussing the new – and old – spending pressures faced, how the economic outlook has changed, and what all means for the public finances. READ MORE
