Living standards Acting like an opposition while in government can only take you so far 18 January 2012 by Gavin Kelly Tomorrow David Cameron will complete the beauty parade of party leaders offering their take on crony capitalism, following on from Ed Miliband’s conference speech, which he amplified last week, and Nick Clegg’s call for a “John Lewis economy”. Expect Cameron to balance a fierce rhetorical attack on boardroom excess (“fill your boots capitalism”) with plenty … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances Food and fuel prices will be key to inflation in the year ahead 17 January 2012 by James Plunkett Backed by strong discounting from retailers, RPI fell from 5.2 per cent in November to 4.8 per cent in December, while CPI fell from 4.8 per cent to 4.2 per cent, its largest one month drop since December 2008. Stressed-out-by-inflationThat of course means inflation remains at more than twice the level of its Bank of … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The scandal of low-paid care workers 22 December 2011 by Gavin Kelly and Joe Coward A friend who is a care worker employed by an agency has a moan to me about her work. Repeated 15 minute slots with a client followed by a frantic dash to another part of the city she lives in to do the same again. Care in a hurry, on the cheap. Welcome to home … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Lessons from America 20 December 2011 by Sophia Parker In the three months I’ve been working on low income households in the US, a wry smile and an emphatic “no” is the almost universal response I get to my question “does the US have any lessons for the UK?” It is certainly true that American safety nets, where they exist at all, are more … Continued READ MORE
Housing Plugging the gap in the rental market 17 December 2011 by Louisa Darian We may be out of recession but the housing market story continues to be one of doom and gloom. House prices continue to fall, the mortgage market continues to contract. While even deposit ready first-time buyers are struggling, the situation is exponentially worse for low-to-middle earners. With just 2 per cent of mortgages available at … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Changing the conversation in 2012 16 December 2011 by Gavin Kelly Low growth, high unemployment, deeper cuts, falling wages, and a further reduction in the living standards of working families. Just in case you were under any doubt, 2012 is going to feel like one long Groundhog Day, a darker version of its grim predecessor. There will, of course, be many new twists and turns. But … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances Uneven inflation costing low-to-middle earners £150 a year 15 December 2011 by Matthew Whittaker Today’s figures from the Office for National Statistics shows that inflation rose in the UK in November, with the CPI increasing from 3.2% to 3.3% – above the government’s official target of 2% for the eleventh month in a row – and the wider RPI measure rising from 4.5% to 4.7%. With average annual earnings growth sitting … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Women’s work – an opportunity for growth we can’t afford to pass up 12 December 2011 by James Plunkett As economic forecasts continue to head south, it’s worth pausing to ask a simple question: Where exactly do we expect future growth in living standards to come from – even once a recovery takes hold? The list of possible answers to that question isn’t long. In fact, when it comes to household income growth, there are effectively … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Will Britons cope with the fallout from a lost decade? 5 December 2011 by Gavin Kelly [Extract] It’s still amazing how little many people understand about how poor so many families are in our country, relative to what other people think. That’s particularly a metropolitan misunderstanding. That’s still the case today, but it is also noticeable that there is starting to be a detail and rigour in the conversation about … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances Worried about losing a decade after the autumn statement? We might lose two 30 November 2011 by Gavin Kelly Those fretting about whether we might face a “lost decade” need to steel themselves. It could be worse than that. Based on the downgraded Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) assumptions we can now project that the wages of an ordinary worker in 2016 will be at the same level as they were in 2001; and that only … Continued READ MORE
Labour market So who pays? 29 November 2011 by Gavin Kelly Just in case you were under any doubt about where the burden of today’s widely expected cuts to tax credits will fall, the chart below should make it clear. Over 75 per cent of the pain of today’s changes to tax credits is felt by the bottom half of the income distribution. The vast majority … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Are we facing an American nightmare? 21 November 2011 by James Plunkett With the Chancellor’s autumn statement due next Tuesday, we’re all talking about growth. The ECB and Bank of England now say the UK economy is set to grow at less than half the rate the OBR forecast back in March. That makes it all but certain that George Osborne will announce dramatic downward revisions to UK forecasts when he stands up … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Are we catching the US disease? 21 November 2011 by Gavin Kelly In the 1970s, the policy and political elite obsessed about the ‘British disease’ — the failure of our system of industrial relations, and its impact on UK prosperity relative to our competitors, above all the US. Forty years on, their concern should be whether we have caught the ‘US disease’: the failure of the broad … Continued READ MORE
Living standards What Britain must learn from the misfortunes of middle America 20 November 2011 by Gavin Kelly The great American middle class is hurting – and has been for a generation. While middle-income households in most advanced economies have been hit by the great recession, the US middle class, the great majority of working families, has not seen the good times for longer than most. Stagnating middle incomes in the US date … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Universal Credit: winners and losers 17 November 2011 by Vidhya Alakeson Iain Duncan Smith has found an extra £300m for childcare in his Universal Credit, but women who want to work longer hours will lose out. The result is only going to make households worse offEarlier this month, the government announced the level of support that would be available for childcare under Universal Credit when it … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Goodbye to the good life 16 November 2011 by Gavin Kelly and James Plunkett In the three months from July to September, Britain’s economy actually grew—by 0.5 per cent. That performance was less bad than many had feared, and some have seized on it as a source of hope. For Chancellor George Osborne it was a “positive step… laying the foundations for the future success of the country.” Even … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances Learning the right lessons from Labour’s economic record 15 November 2011 You might think the one thing the world doesn’t need right now is yet another instant history about the Labour years. But here one comes — this time, though, with a difference. The authors certainly won’t be dining out on the royalties and there’s no insider gossip or “he said, she said” revelations about rows … Continued READ MORE
Housing Why Britain’s households got richer – and why they stopped 6 November 2011 by Gavin Kelly Before there is any prospect of shaking the economic pessimism that has engulfed the country we need first to alight upon a credible account of how working families will boost their living standards in the years ahead. At the moment no-one is mapping out this course to a more prosperous future; but more surprising, perhaps, … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances Getting from economic bingo to a growth plan 3 November 2011 The last week has produced a bumper crop of economic reports and statistics – resulting in a form of daily economic bingo – which will define the political and economic debate for the rest of the autumn and set the scene for the run into 2012. It’s a week that has sharpened the economic and … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The Breakdown in the Relationship Between Economic Growth and Pay 28 October 2011 With the fragile recovery in the global economy at very real risk of derailment, strategies for growth remain at the top of agendas across the world. But if we look at the period prior to the crisis of 2008-09, it becomes clear that we need to aim to do more than simply return to ‘normal’. Long … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Occupy the Bank 26 October 2011 At last we are getting some hard-hitting ideas about how to reign in and reform free-booting finance capitalism. From those camped outside St Paul’s? A new left wing think-tank? Perhaps a leading financier gone-rogue in the manner of Soros or Buffett? No, nothing so predictable. The new ideas are flowing from that well known citadel … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Obama: Mr 99%? 14 October 2011 Just a bunch of ‘kids and kooks’ or the early and messy stirrings of a deeper shift in US politics? That’s the question pre-occupying US politicians and assorted commentators from left to right as the one month old occupation of Wall Street spreads to a growing number of cities. They call themselves the ‘99%’ – … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Getting the measure of a better capitalism 12 October 2011 Today the Institute for Fiscal Studies has launched an Exocet at the Coalition’s claims to be a one-nation government taking a lead on poverty reduction. Nearly all measures of poverty are set to rise over the next five to ten years and the Coalition’s policies are part of the cause.But underneath the headlines the IFS analysis serves … Continued READ MORE
Living standards The coalition is actively increasing child poverty 11 October 2011 As has been widely reported, new figures published today by the Institute for Fiscal Studies forecast that the number of children in poverty is set to rise. Specifically, child poverty will rise continually during the first half of this decade and stay at approximately the same level until 2020, when there will be over three million children … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Child poverty: We need to rethink our 2020 target 11 October 2011 This morning the IFS published its latest projections for poverty. The stats have been widely reported, with most coverage focusing on the ‘unprecedented’ seven percent squeeze on middle incomes. But perhaps the more surprising figures are those for long-term trends in child poverty. On our current path, 800,000 more children will fall into poverty by … Continued READ MORE
