Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending Cutting back on the investment and delivery of public services is not what the economy needs – or what the electorate wants 27 February 2024 by James Smith and Tara Goatley The Government’s current plans for post-election cuts to public spending look undeliverable given rising prices and increasing demand on services. As discussed below, plans to cap day-to-day spending increases at 1 per cent (after allowing for inflation) imply very big cuts to departments not covered by existing spending commitments. This is particularly worrying given pre-existing … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Another summer blockbuster (on fiscal risks) from the OBR 18 July 2019 by Richard Hughes Today the OBR published its second Fiscal Risks Report, a comprehensive assessment of all the things that could go wrong with the UK’s public finances over the next 50 years. And it is a summer blockbuster – topping out at 293 pages in total. Fiscal risk analysis is the new cutting edge in fiscal policymaking, … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Inequality & poverty· Economy and public finances Is rising inequality helping to swell the coffers for Fortunate Phil? 12 March 2019 by Torsten Bell Fortunate Phil is not what the Chancellor generally gets called. But as he prepares for tomorrow’s Spring Statement, Philip Hammond – despite facing what looks like headline bad news – has at least some reasons to be grateful for good luck on both the economic and political fronts. The Treasury is gearing up for the … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Hitting the books: student loans and the public finances 16 December 2018 by Matthew Whittaker With everything that’s going on in British politics right now, it’s easy to forget that the government was celebrating some seriously good news just seven weeks ago. You might remember that the Chancellor got handed a £74 billion fiscal windfall at the Budget that allowed him to deliver the long-promised extra spending on the NHS … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Pessimism, Politics and Economics: the real Budget story 2 November 2018 by James Smith Debates following this week’s Budget have been dominated by political arguments about whether the Chancellor’s spending splurge means that austerity had been ended or lives on (our view: austerity was significantly eased but not ended). But another debate has been conspicuously absent this week, having dominated the UK’s political economy for the past eight years: … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances The Budget marks a very significant easing – but not an end of austerity 30 October 2018 by Torsten Bell Marriages require compromise. So we shouldn’t be surprised that the reluctant political marriage between Theresa May and Phillip Hammond has delivered a compromise Budget. Caught between the Prime Ministers promise to “end austerity”, the wish to see debt falling, and the reality of the parliamentary arithmetic making significant tax rises difficult the Chancellor has taken … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances The OBR on Brexit: known-unknowns and unknown-unknowns cast shadow over the Budget 11 October 2018 by James Smith As if Philip Hammond’s job over the next few weeks wasn’t tough enough already, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) this morning has published its thinking on how Brexit will make his life harder for many years to come. Already charged with “ending austerity” (which, as Torsten pointed out last week, is a stretch to … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Tax· Intergenerational Centre· Political parties and elections Britain is set to replace the era of austerity with a new era of tax rises 7 October 2018 by David Willetts The main message that has united both main party conferences over the last fortnight is that the era of austerity is over. For Labour that means more spending on new things – from universal childcare to a mass programme of nationalisation. And for many Conservatives it means a return to what they love doing best … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Economy and public finances The end of austerity? Not so much 3 October 2018 by Torsten Bell and Resolution Foundation Analysis The Prime Minister made a big bold statement today. No, not that she likes to dance to Abba (who doesn’t) but that she was “ending austerity”. Announcing the end of austerity is sensible politics. After all who, apart from a few fringe think-tanks, says they want more austerity in of itself? There are also signs … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax Is there enough fuel in the fiscal tank for another duty freeze? 3 October 2018 by Matthew Whittaker After eight years of freezes, it had started to look like successive governments’ cancellation of the annual RPI-linked uprating of fuel duty had run out of road. After all, it’s already costing the government around £9 billion a year, and that cost will grow with each passing year. But we now know that the Chancellor … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Five charts to chill the Chancellor’s blood ahead of the Budget 28 September 2018 by Matthew Whittaker We now know that this year’s Budget will be delivered on 29 October, making it the first Monday Budget since 1962. The traditional Wednesday has been avoided, we’re told, to side-step negative Halloween-based headlines. Yet there’s still plenty of scary stuff for the Chancellor to deal with – from finding the £20 billion needed to … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Economy and public finances We’re all social democrats now 17 July 2018 by Torsten Bell It’s Super Tuesday on the fiscal policy front. Try not to get too excited. Today a lucky world gains not only the Office for Budget Responsibility’s Fiscal Sustainability Report (the ‘FSR’ looks ages over the next 50 years to ask: ‘how bust are we if we carry on as we are’) but also the Treasury’s … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Housing· Intergenerational Centre The future fiscal cost of ‘Generation Rent’ 17 April 2018 by Stephen Clarke The future fiscal cost of ‘Generation Rent’ For most people the lion’s share of their income is spent housing and so forking out on accommodation when no longer earning would seem like a tall order for many. The vast majority of retired people own their own home and so have relatively low housing costs, however … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances What Philip Hammond will say today: the deficit is dead, long live the debt 12 March 2018 by Torsten Bell Philip Hammond is going to give a very short speech at the Spring Statement today. There will be none of the tax and spending announcements we are used to when Chancellors rise to the Despatch Box. But short and largely announcement free as it will be, tomorrow’s speech will nonetheless represent something very significant for … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Economy and public finances The end of austerity? 13 June 2017 by Torsten Bell Austerity is over, The Times tell us. Both the PM’s last chief of staff and her new one agree it’s gone too far. These are big shifts in language, on a subject that has dominated politics since 2010. But is austerity really over? And what are the crunch tests for deciding if the world … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Economy and public finances· Political parties and elections How do the main parties’ fiscal policies compare? 25 May 2017 by Adam Corlett The parties’ manifestos cover a lot of ground. But what would their fiscal policies mean for the country? As we set out in an earlier report, boring-sounding rules about the deficit matter hugely for the country’s public debt trajectory, the parties’ delivery of services and tax and benefit policies, and for accommodating coming demographic challenges. … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Public spending· Economy and public finances Put your crocs away, but get your calculators out – we still need to talk about the deficit 11 May 2017 by Torsten Bell Fashions come and fashions go, in politics as on the catwalk. One minute an issue looks like it’s the only thing that matters, and the next no-politician wants to mention it. As this general election rolls on the thing that is becoming ever clearer is that the fiscal deficit is the British political equivalent of … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances The Autumn Statement debate has focused on the public finances – but the impact on family Budgets is just as stark 24 November 2016 by Torsten Bell Yesterday’s discussion of the Chancellor’s first (and last) Autumn Statement understandably focused on the very significant increase in borrowing that the first official take on the economic impact of the decision to leave the EU unveiled. In short the Office for Budget Responsibility thinks the Brexit vote is expensive – coming with a price tag … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Resolution Foundation reaction to Autumn Statement 2016 23 November 2016 by Matthew Whittaker £59bn impact of Brexit and Chancellor’s decision to increase investment spending drive £122bn extra borrowing Philip Hammond chooses not to support just about managing families who face a double whammy of lower earnings and benefit cuts Slower growth and higher inflation will mean higher borrowing and a parliament of falling living standards for millions – … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Is the Chancellor planning a £32bn pre-election take-away? I wouldn’t bet on it 17 March 2016 by Torsten Bell If you’re the kind of person that finds money down the back of your sofa, the chances are you’re the kind of person that also loses it down there in the first place. That’s the lesson the Chancellor was taught by his Budget yesterday. At the centre of all the Commons rhetoric, stats and pun-strewn … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Budget response: the sofa can go from being a cashpoint to a pickpocket overnight 16 March 2016 by Torsten Bell TREASURY CHOOSES TO ACCEPT £38bn EXTRA BORROWING IN FACE OF ECONOMIC HEADWINDS OBR gives the Chancellor a £55bn fiscal black hole, double the £27bn windfall from the Autumn Statement The weaker outlook for productivity and pay has led the OBR to give George Osborne a £55bn fiscal hole, reversing twice over the £27bn fiscal windfall … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances The billions that the spending review forgot 10 January 2016 by Adam Corlett New Year’s Eve is an exciting day. For, each year, it is the day that the government – without any fanfare – publishes new stats on the cost of tax expenditures. Presumably it is only coincidentally a time of year when scrutiny and column inches are likely to be limited. This is a shame, because … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances How much wriggle room will the Chancellor have in the July Budget? 22 May 2015 by Gavin Kelly After the flow of easy pre-election promises, here come the hard choices of government. As George Osborne approaches his ‘emergency Budget’ attention will turn to what room for manoeuvre he really has given all the commitments that have been made. How will it all add up and is there a version of austerity that might … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances How tightly has the Chancellor tied his own hands on fiscal policy? 22 May 2015 by Adam Corlett Having secured a majority on 7 May, the Conservatives must now set about the difficult job of delivering on their various pre-election pledges. In relation to fiscal consolidation in particular, they can no longer point to the demands of a junior coalition partner as cause for rowing back on any of the harder to execute … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Economy and public finances· Political parties and elections How far apart are the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats on fiscal policy: could the coalition renew its vows? 28 April 2015 by Adam Corlett Recently we looked at the degree of potential overlap between Labour and Liberal Democrat fiscal plans, and found that the parties are not as far apart as might first be assumed. In this second note, we consider the relative positions of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. The Conservative goal appears relatively straightforward: they want to … Continued READ MORE
