Brexit & trade A tariff-fying start 4 February 2025 by Emily Fry and Greg Thwaites Over the last few days, President Trump has turned his campaign promises into reality, announcing major tariff hikes. But if the spotlight shifts to the UK, we should be cautious about retaliating. A tariff-fying start On 1 February, Trump announced steep new tariffs on the US’s three biggest trade partners: 25 per cent on Canada … Continued READ MORE
Productivity & industrial strategy· Economic growth The Government’s economic strategy becomes more concrete 29 January 2025 by Greg Thwaites The Chancellor’s speech today provided some more detail on how the Government plans to boost growth. One can begin to discern the outlines of a growth strategy taking shape, and it is increasingly clear what this government wants to be known for: building things. A concrete growth strategy Life is never really this simple, but … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Chilly jobs, warm wages 21 January 2025 by Greg Thwaites The jobs market ended 2024 with good news on pay. That’s if you have a job – and there was worrying evidence that it’s getting harder to find one. We delve into the detail below. Employment is falling… After two strong years, the jobs market cooled off markedly throughout 2024. Employee jobs fell again in … Continued READ MORE
The Government doubles down on the UK’s superpower in services 14 October 2024 by Greg Thwaites The Government has provided the outlines of its new industrial strategy in a Green Paper released today. The strategy largely doubles down on the UK’s established role as a global services leader. This is welcome, and not just because I counted eleven references to RF work and our Economy 2030 Inquiry, although that was nice. … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay The labour market is generating fewer jobs, but paying better for those who have one 14 May 2024 by Greg Thwaites Today’s labour market data paint a picture of a labour market that is generating fewer jobs, but paying better for those who do have one. This picture is hazy, however, because the data are themselves increasingly uncertain. The employment rate is falling The 16-64 employment rate in the ONS’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) was unchanged … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The jobs market recovery stalls 16 April 2024 by Greg Thwaites Today’s labour market data from the ONS suggest that both labour demand and labour supply are heading South. The only silver lining is that, for those that do have a job, real pay has been rising fast. Labour supply is falling fast Economic inactivity rate has risen to its highest rate since 2015 among those … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Labour market loosens gradually as inactivity falls, but pay growth remains high 11 July 2023 by Greg Thwaites Today’s data paints a picture of a labour market that is loosening somewhat (as in, firms aren’t having to compete quite as fiercely for workers) but with pay growth at levels still far too rapid to hit the Bank of England’s 2 per cent inflation target. Real pay is still falling, so we’ve taken a … Continued READ MORE
Fewer students, more ill health: the wrong kind of labour-market participation 18 April 2023 by Greg Thwaites Today’s labour market data depicts an expanding workforce, reversing some of the shrinkage we saw during the pandemic. But, like Homer Simpson, it’s expanding and receding in all the wrong places – due to fewer students rather than less long-term sickness. In better news, employment kept rising and unemployment remains low. Public sector pay growth … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Labour market offers glimmers of hope for the Chancellor and the Bank 14 March 2023 by Greg Thwaites Today’s labour market statistics show employment has been holding up well in the face of the higher interest rates and the cost of living crisis. Meanwhile, there were encouraging early signs that labour market activity is improving and pay growth generating less inflation – a bit of good news for the Chancellor ahead of Wednesday’s … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Pay growth gap adds to staffing crisis in the public sector 15 November 2022 by Greg Thwaites Today’s labour market data show real pay falling fast in the private sector, and even faster in the public sector. Public sector vacancies have hit a new record, while vacancies in the private sector continue to recede gently from recent record highs. As the Chancellor prepares to announce a new round of tight public spending … Continued READ MORE
Pay Low unemployment belies a labour market in poor health 11 October 2022 by Greg Thwaites Today’s labour market data showed unemployment hitting its lowest rate since 1974. On the face of it, this is cause for celebration. But a shrinking labour force, not a rise in employment, drove the fall in unemployment, and this is a cause for concern. A record number of working-age people are now inactive due to … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Britain needs to get serious about an economic strategy towards a more prosperous, fairer, greener 2030s – can you help? Call for policy ideas to help Britain become a fairer, greener, more prosperous nation 6 October 2022 by Emily Fry and Greg Thwaites The UK’s cost-of-living crisis – with rocketing food and energy prices – is making everyone poorer, and is particularly harmful to low-to-middle income households. But this recent crisis isn’t isolated, because the Britain that confronts it suffers from a toxic combination of high inequality and protracted slow growth. The UK also has great strengths … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Britain’s pay squeeze continues as sickness shrinks the workforce 13 September 2022 by Greg Thwaites Today’s labour market data show both the supply of and demand for labour falling. On demand, vacancies continued to fall from recent peaks, while the employment rate ticked down. Don’t be fooled by the fall in the unemployment rate, even to a record low. This is because the fall in unemployed was driven by fewer … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Feeling poor and working more – again 19 July 2022 by Greg Thwaites Today’s labour market data tell us a bit more about how the labour market is responding to high inflation and the cost of living shock. We see some things we would expect, some things which may be surprising, and much that remains unresolved. Real wages fall at the fastest rate on record The most eye-popping … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Unemployment hits a record low but pay is still falling in real terms 17 May 2022 by Greg Thwaites Tuesday’s labour market data contained good news on unemployment, which fell to its lowest level in 50 years, but bad news on real pay, which is falling and set to fall faster. There are very early signs that labour-force participation might be starting to reverse the huge falls we have seen since the pandemic, but … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Labour market tight, household budgets tighter 15 March 2022 by Greg Thwaites Tuesday’s labour market data showed that many of the trends of recent months remain in play. The labour market tightened further, participation continued to disappoint and real pay packets kept falling, while nominal pay growth hasn’t yet shown clear signs of accelerating. The labour market is tight The labour market is now very tight on … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Two-and-a-half cheers for the UK’s post-furlough labour market 16 November 2021 by Greg Thwaites There is plenty to celebrate in today’s labour market data. As the end of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme approached in September, we saw rising employment (up to 75.4 per cent), falling unemployment (down to 4.3 per cent – see Figure 1 for both) and a record number of people moving into new jobs – … Continued READ MORE
