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Analysis and action on living standards
Today’s labour market data paint a picture of a labour market that is generating fewer jobs, but paying better for those who do have one. This picture is hazy, however, because the data are themselves increasingly uncertain. The employment rate is falling The 16-64 employment rate in the ONS’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) was unchanged … Continued
The ONS has published its 2023 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE), taken in April this year. ASHE is a big survey of employers that provides a detailed picture of employee pay across different places, jobs, and types of workers. It’s also the only data we get on hourly pay. So what does this … Continued
This morning’s labour market stats bring good news and bad news. An uptick in workforce participation is good news for everyone, while signs of weakening pay pressure might ease the Bank of England’s inflation concerns. But a wider cooling of demand (seen in falling vacancies, and rising unemployment and redundancies) don’t bode well for workers. … Continued
Today’s labour market data show real pay falling fast in the private sector, and even faster in the public sector. Public sector vacancies have hit a new record, while vacancies in the private sector continue to recede gently from recent record highs. As the Chancellor prepares to announce a new round of tight public spending … Continued
The ONS published their annual release from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) on October 26th. It’s not the timeliest data – it was collected from a survey of employers all the way back in April, and we already know from other data sources how pay has evolved through to July and August. … Continued
Today’s labour market data showed unemployment hitting its lowest rate since 1974. On the face of it, this is cause for celebration. But a shrinking labour force, not a rise in employment, drove the fall in unemployment, and this is a cause for concern. A record number of working-age people are now inactive due to … Continued
Tuesday’s labour market data contained good news on unemployment, which fell to its lowest level in 50 years, but bad news on real pay, which is falling and set to fall faster. There are very early signs that labour-force participation might be starting to reverse the huge falls we have seen since the pandemic, but … Continued
The big news in this morning’s labour market stats was confirmation that pay is now falling in real terms – the pay squeeze will be one of the defining features of 2022. There is better news on jobs, with falling unemployment suggesting the labour market continues to tighten, but vacancies have fallen from their high … Continued
We often have more questions submitted for our event Q&A sessions than we’re able to answer. Where this is the case, we’ll endeavour to respond to a selection of the most interesting or most representative questions that went unanswered. The questions below were submitted to our panel for the event From loud claps to hard … Continued
This morning’s labour market statistics broke records left and right. Mostly this was good news, with a new high on the employment rate and a (belated) return to peak pay. But as Linford Christie famously said, if you want to be a record breaker … it’s a good idea to look at the full range … Continued
New ONS data out today – the last of 2019 – shows that we’ve approached the end of the year with the labour market in, to coin a phrase, a strong and stable position. Strong because employment remains at record levels – hitting a new high in the three months to October of 76.2 per … Continued
The North-South divide is a theme often used by – and against – politicians to highlight inequality in the UK, and election time is no exception. But this divide has evolved over time, and is by no means the only geographical divide in the country. The big economic divide Productivity – or how efficiently … Continued
f you live in Bolton and earn more than £80,000, you’re rich compared with your neighbours. Really rich. The average pay for all workers is just £22,000 and one in four earns less than £15,000. And yes, you’re still rich among the country as a whole: only 5% of earners make more than £80,000 – … Continued
Why are three million more of us working today than were back in 2008? How has our employment rate reached 76 per cent, when full employment before the crisis meant 73 per cent of us working? These are employment levels no-one thought possible a decade ago. There is almost no bigger change to our economy … Continued
The UK is gearing up for another election, which means politicians of all parties fighting for the votes of what they call ‘ordinary’ or ‘hard-working’ people. There are record numbers of people in work in the UK. So, what jobs do we do in Britain, how have they changed in recent years, and what might … Continued
The last time pay peaked was in August 2007. Average weekly pay was £513, measured in 2019 prices. Over a decade later, pay is finally set to go higher. In August 2019, the latest month for which we have our most timely earnings data, average weekly pay was £511. With real pay growth at a … Continued
This morning the ONS published the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) for 2019 – the most detailed data on employee pay available, telling us about high and low pay, the gender pay gap, and more besides. As a think-tank focusing on raising living standards, this is pretty crucial data for us, and for … Continued
On headline measures the labour market remains healthy. Conditions are tight and this continues to feed into decent real pay growth – 2.0 per cent in the three months to August 2019, not far off the levels we came to expect before the recession. But alongside positive headlines are signs that the labour market is … Continued
The politics of the minimum wage don’t exactly fit our lazy stereotypes. Back in the pre-crisis days of supposed consensus, debates raged about whether the policy was right or wrong. Today, when political divides are huge, everyone is falling over themselves to agree that a higher minimum wage is the way to go. The Chancellor … Continued
A tight labour market is finally delivering decent pay growth. In the three months to July 2019, average weekly regular pay (i.e. excluding bonuses) grew by 1.9 per cent on the previous year (slightly down on the previous month). Given that average real pay grew by 2.1 per cent in the eight years prior to … Continued
How do you get a pay rise? You could try to wrangle more out of your employer with canny negotiating tactics. That may help. But it’s not how the majority of us see our pay rise – and occasionally fall – over time. In practice, other factors are likely to be more important. Some of … Continued
Two big changes in the labour market over the past two decades have been the rise in self-employment and the introduction and uprating of the minimum wage. Is there a connection between these trends? Legally, of course, there is no connection – the minimum wage applies to employees only. But economically, we would expect one. … Continued
In 1957 the Prime Minister Harold Macmillan told the country that it had “never had it so good”. Since then more than six decades have elapsed, and each successive generation has debated whether this applies to them. Such debates continue to rage. Some commentators have argued that today’s young people are more fortunate than previous … Continued
Today’s labour market statistics were, to use a technical term, boring. In a world of high political and economic drama, our labour market has served up headline measures of real pay growth and employment which basically haven’t changed for four months in a row. We shouldn’t bemoan unchanging numbers. Like air travel and digging tunnels, … Continued
Britain has long had a low pay problem. For most of the last two decades around one in five workers has been in low-paid work – earning less than two-thirds of the typical hourly pay – at any given time. This is a massive problem given how hard it can be to escape low pay. … Continued
