Covid-19· Labour market Three big decisions for the Chancellor on the future of the Job Retention Scheme 28 May 2020 by Daniel Tomlinson The Chancellor will be announcing details for ‘Phase 2’ of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS) later today or tomorrow. With 8.4 million jobs furloughed – one-third of all private sector employees – any changes to the JRS will have a big impact both on the scale of the unemployment crisis and on the speed … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Housing Government has further to go to protect livelihoods during this crisis Steps taken by the government to protect individuals and the wider economy are welcome, but gaps remain 8 April 2020 by Daniel Tomlinson This downturn is very different from the last. The 2008 crisis originated in the financial services sector, rippling out to the rest of the economy and leading to an increase in unemployment of just over one million between 2008 and 2011. This time is different. The UK, and much of the world, is about to … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market Unprecedented support for employees’ wages last week has been followed up by equally significant, and even more generous, support for the self-employed. But gaps remain 27 March 2020 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Laura Gardiner and Karl Handscomb and Daniel Tomlinson Yesterday, the Chancellor announced that last week’s pledge to underwrite 80 per cent of the wages of employees without work to do during this crisis is being matched with significant grants to the self-employed. This is an important addition to existing plans to support employees, and in many ways a more generous offer. The Self-Employed … Continued READ MORE
We need to think bigger when it comes to reforms to our jobs market 18 November 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson The Conservatives are spending this election campaign celebrating record employment. The Labour party is spending it deriding the UK’s lousy pay performance, and high levels of insecure work. These contrasting pictures are both true: we have a very tight labour market, but the issue of job quality remains. Our flexible labour market has enabled the … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Union membership is rising again – but will it last? 31 May 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson In 2018 the Trades Union Congress (TUC) celebrated its 150th birthday. Yesterday the government delivered a somewhat belated birthday present to the union movement in the form of new statistics showing that membership levels have risen significantly for the first time in almost two decades. Happy birthday TUC! In this short blog post, we provide … Continued READ MORE
Firms· Productivity & industrial strategy· Labour market The word on the high street 18 April 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson The way we shop in the UK has changed dramatically in just the space of a decade. In 2008 less than five per cent of retail spending was online, and that share has almost quadrupled in the years since. The latest statistics published just this morning show that in March this year almost a fifth … Continued READ MORE
Housing Home ownership is rising, but the crisis is far from over 22 December 2018 by Daniel Tomlinson Across the country today hundreds of thousands of twenty and thirtysomethings are heading back to their parents’ homes for Christmas. Most (around two-thirds) of these parents are home owners, but the same cannot be said for their kids. Home ownership rates have fallen across all age groups in the UK in recent decades, with the … Continued READ MORE
Housing Lifting the lid on the HRA cap 31 October 2018 by Lindsay Judge and Daniel Tomlinson Budget 2018 may have been a bigger deal than most of us expected but it’s been underwhelming when it comes to housing, especially given the government claimed just weeks ago that ‘solving the housing crisis is the biggest domestic policy challenge of our generation’. That said, we do now have details about the lifting of … Continued READ MORE
Firms· Productivity & industrial strategy· Economy and public finances· Economic growth Time to concentrate on our capitalism 26 July 2018 by Torsten Bell and Daniel Tomlinson Our politicians are anxious. And not just because no-one has a decent poll lead or idea where Brexit will end up. No, some are finding the time to get anxious about other things too, including the state of capitalism in the UK. The angst isn’t limited to the left either, with Michael Gove becoming a … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The UK’s tight labour market and zero hours contracts 21 February 2018 by Daniel Tomlinson After five years of rapid increases, the number of people working on a zero hours contract has flat-lined in the UK over the past year. A tighter labour market may not yet be delivering increases in real pay, but it is slowly reshaping the type of work that we do for the better. It’s also … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Intergenerational Centre “Don’t it always seem to go, that you don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone” – UK generational trends in an international context 19 February 2018 by Daniel Tomlinson and Fahmida Rahman Joni Mitchell’s lyrics may refer to her first trip to Hawaii, but they could just as easily apply to UK trends in generational living standards that the Resolution Foundation’s Intergenerational Commission has uncovered. That’s particularly so in light of new analysis comparing these trends internationally. While there are huge living standards differences between high-income countries, … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay The cap no longer fits – but has the squeeze been eased? 12 September 2017 by Daniel Tomlinson One of the main talking points as people digested the shock election result in June was whether years of pay restraint had finally taken its toll on public sector workers, who were making their feelings known at the ballot box. The fate of the pay cap was sealed a few hours after the polling stations … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Trade union membership has fallen further than ever before 31 May 2017 by Daniel Tomlinson This morning the government published the latest estimates for trade union membership in the UK, they make for grim – but important – reading for anyone in favour of a healthy union movement. Here are 5 key points to take away from the statistics. Membership levels have fallen by a quarter of a million in … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The evidence is mounting that Zero Hours Contracts have reached their peak 11 May 2017 by Daniel Tomlinson What happens when unemployment is at a close to 40 year low, as it is in the UK today? Economic textbooks tells you that pay pressures mount. But that is not happening – instead a pay squeeze has returned in 2017. Instead, it looks as if more competition for jobs might just be pushing up … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Cities and regions The North-South divide in the UK’s jobs market 15 March 2017 by Daniel Tomlinson With the divisions between different parts of the UK dominating the news agenda this week, now is as good a time as any to take a deeper look at the extent to which regional divisions also exist in our jobs market. Today we learned that the UK employment rate is at a record high (again). … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Tax A small and sensible National Insurance rise for the self-employed is not the real strivers tax 10 March 2017 by Daniel Tomlinson Here’s proof that a small and sensible National Insurance rise for the self-employed is not the real strivers tax in three charts. Conservative backbenchers and some newspapers are outraged by the Chancellor’s announcement this week that self-employed National Insurance contributions (NICs) are going up. Broken manifesto pledges and headlines about men in white vans adds … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Intergenerational Centre No country for young men? 9 February 2017 by Daniel Tomlinson In decades gone by paid work was a thing that men did. Families, the world of work and the welfare state were structured to make this the norm. But this mid-20th century certainty is no more. Women in the UK are participating in the labour market in ever greater numbers with the gender employment gap … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Housing· Intergenerational Centre Mind the representation gap 22 December 2016 by Daniel Tomlinson We’ve heard a lot about fairness between the generations recently. Housing is normally the issue at hand. After all, home ownership is becoming an ever more distant dream for a growing number of millennials. As a result, twenty somethings are now spending £44,000 more on rent during their 20s than the baby boomers did. And … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Wellbeing and mental health How can employers support wellbeing in the gig economy? 17 October 2016 by Daniel Tomlinson Working in the gig economy can be a liberating experience. Freed from the rigidities of the 9 to 5 life, individuals find that they are able to enjoy work at a pace that suits them. For many, gig work and its associated flexibility is a wellbeing boost in and of itself. But for other gig … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Intergenerational Centre Act now or shrink later: trade unions and the generational challenge 25 September 2016 by Daniel Tomlinson and Gavin Kelly Union membership to fall below one in five employees by 2030 unless current trends reversed The future should be full of potential for trade unions. Four in five people in Great Britain think that trade unions are “essential” to protect workers’ interests. Public concerns about low pay have soared to record levels over recent years. And, … Continued READ MORE
Labour market “Ordinary, working people” and the rise of self-employment 20 July 2016 by Daniel Tomlinson Theresa May undoubtedly has a lot to focus on, but she was clear last week that her government will be “completely, absolutely, unequivocally – at the service of ordinary, working people”. Which raises the question: who are these people? We had a helpful reminder from the ONS last week that a typical working person is … Continued READ MORE
Low pay· Labour market· Pay Low paid Britain is set for a parliament of pay rises – let’s make them a success 27 March 2016 by Daniel Tomlinson Budgets are always full of surprises and last year’s Summer Budget contained one of the biggest ever: the announcement of a National Living Wage (NLW). The NLW is the new compulsory wage floor for workers aged 25 and over, it will be introduced at £7.20 an hour this April and is projected to reach £9 … Continued READ MORE
Pensions & savings Help to Save: an idea whose time has come (again) 14 March 2016 by Daniel Tomlinson ‘Support for savers’ was meant to be one of the key Budget themes. Until recently it seemed likely that the Chancellor would be announcing a radical shake-up of pension saving. But in the face of fierce of opposition from industry, the media and many backbench MPs, the Treasury has now ruled out any changes to … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Zero-hours contracts: casual contracts are becoming a permanent feature of the UK economy 9 March 2016 by Daniel Tomlinson There is much to celebrate about the UK’s labour market performance. The employment rate is at a record high of 74.1% and every region of the UK has seen employment growth over the last two years. After a long squeeze, wages are now growing faster than prices (thanks in large part to ultra-low inflation). The … Continued READ MORE
