Brexit & trade Britain needs to acknowledge rather than deny its weaknesses in goods trade, and leverage its strength in services 13 May 2024 by Emily Fry The UK economy swiftly exited its recession in the first quarter of 2024 thanks in part to an improving trade balance. This is good news – but an improving trade balance is not the same as a successful trade performance. Indeed, GDP was boosted despite the UK’s total trade with the rest of the world … Continued READ MORE
Brexit & trade Britain’s post-Brexit trade patterns are finally emerging in the data 28 February 2024 by Emily Fry The impact of Brexit on trade in the first two years after leaving the EU was complicated by global events: first the pandemic, and then the spike in energy prices. This means the 2023 data – the third year of trade post-Brexit – is the first real opportunity to see what’s going on. At first … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Prices & consumption· Brexit & trade· Tax After Brexit the UK could cut VAT on energy – but should it? 2 September 2019 by Adam Corlett During the EU referendum, one of Vote Leave’s promises was that “fuel bills will be lower for everyone”. Specifically, Boris Johnson and others argued that: “In 1993, VAT on household energy bills was imposed. This makes gas and electricity much more expensive. EU rules mean we cannot take VAT off those bills. The least wealthy … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Brexit & trade· Inequality & poverty· Economic growth Dis-United Kingdom? Inequality, growth and the Brexit divide 25 May 2018 by Matthew Whittaker Much has changed in Britain since the EU referendum, but in many ways the divide that opened up around the vote feels as cavernous today as it was on the morning after the night before. That owes much to the inevitably divisive nature of a binary in/out referendum of course, but many commentators point also … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Brexit & trade· Economy and public finances There’s much uncertainty about a ‘No Deal’ Brexit, but what we do know would be bad for living standards 17 October 2017 by Torsten Bell Big change, means big uncertainty. Especially when that big change is being brought to the complex beast that is a major developed country in the 21st Century. To complicate the task further, in the case of Brexit Britain while we know big change is coming, we don’t know what form that big change will actually … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Living standards· Brexit & trade· Inequality & poverty We’re getting poorer, but it’s not (just) Brexit 6 October 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Amid a busy week in politics, the publication this week of new data showing that average household income per person has fallen in each of the last four quarters has passed somewhat unremarked upon. As the chart below shows, annualised income fell by 0.3 per cent in the second quarter of this year relative to … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Brexit & trade· Political parties and elections How important was Brexit in the so-called ‘Brexit election’? 10 June 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Anyone who channel-hopped their way through Thursday night’s election coverage will have noticed two things. First, pundits are very good at recycling and refining their reactions as they work their way around the various studios. And second, different channels established different, but seemingly equally plausible, narratives about just what on earth was happening. But one … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Brexit & trade Britain has enjoyed a mini living standards boom – so why did we vote for change? 29 January 2017 by Torsten Bell The living standards story of last year was record employment, a higher minimum wage and the strongest income growth for a decade. Britain’s never had it so moderately okay. What’s more inequality was either flat or falling – poorer households did better than most. But the democracy story was a Brexit vote for big change … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Brexit & trade The big picture tomorrow will be about the consequences of Brexit, but don’t forget its causes 22 November 2016 by Torsten Bell Like bad pop music, there is a predictable rhythm to all Budgets and Autumn Statements. That’s partly about the theatre on the day – a photo outside Number 11, Chancellor’s statement in the Commons (including the rabbit out of a hat announcement) and the opposition’s response (usually involving shooting foxes and recently Communist book club … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Brexit & trade Brexit means… different things to different people 12 October 2016 by Stephen Clarke Shortly after the UK voted to leave the European Union the Resolution Foundation published analysis that explored the factors underpinning variation in the vote by place. Looking across 378 of Britain’s 380 local authorities we found that the share of Leave votes in an area was connected to measures of living standards (areas with lower … Continued READ MORE
Brexit & trade· Economic growth Amid all the Brexit uncertainty, a clearer picture is emerging 21 September 2016 by Matthew Whittaker Among the many things that feel different in the post-referendum world, there is an unusual air of anticipation surrounding what would previously have been considered relatively underwhelming statistical releases. Today we were treated to a quartet of such publications. On the face of it they appear to point in different directions, allowing commentators on both … Continued READ MORE
Brexit & trade· Economy and public finances Five charts that tell the story so far of the post-referendum economy 20 July 2016 by Matthew Whittaker and David Finch Perhaps the only certainty in relation to the UK at the moment is that things look very uncertain. Longer-term, much will depend on just what Brexit ends up meaning. Shorter-term, most economists expect some form of demand-led slowdown – with general business and consumer uncertainty pulling back on investment and spending and sharp falls in … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Brexit & trade Why did we vote to leave? What an analysis of place can tell us about Brexit 15 July 2016 by Stephen Clarke So much has happened since the UK voted to leave the EU that it is hard to believe that the result was announced just three weeks ago. Already the pop analysis of what influenced the referendum outcome is becoming received wisdom, with politicians and others competing to see who can best deal with the sources … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Brexit & trade Are we set for a Brexit-induced cost of living crisis? 28 June 2016 by Matthew Whittaker What impact will Brexit have on living standards? It is of course far too early to make any sensible assessment about the longer-term picture, particularly as this will depend on the details of the UK’s new relationship with Europe. But clearly the world has already changed. The business and consumer uncertainty generated by last week’s … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Incomes· Inequality & poverty· Brexit & trade The referendum, living standards and inequality 24 June 2016 by Torsten Bell Today’s result is what earthquakes in politics look like. It will have big long term impacts on the future living standards of the British people – impacts on employment, pay and prices that will matter much more to people than today’s falls in the value of Sterling or the stock market, bad though those are. … Continued READ MORE
