Afternoon all, Big news coming on the economic front next week: unless something goes awry inflation should fall to within touching distance of the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target when April’s consumer prices data comes out on Wednesday (the Bank’s own forecast is 2.1 per cent). It’s a big landmark after a long … Continued

Afternoon all, Feeling pretty perky today. There’s the exiting the recession thing, which is good. But better, the weather recovery is at last underway, as we exit 2024’s never ending winter. This week has been genuinely pleasant, so the voters weather gods better not take us back to square one. Especially as I’ve missed most of the fun … Continued

Afternoon all, I for one am shocked that the party that is 20 points ahead in the polls has done well, and the one that is 20 points behind has taken a kicking. No-one could have seen this coming, so it’s lucky thousands of words are now going to get written to help us understand … Continued

Morning all, It’s been an expensive week for HM Treasury. There’s the PM’s pledge to raise defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP, putting the peace dividend that has seen military spending shrink from 7 per cent of GDP in 1948 to a bit over 2 per cent today into partial reverse. That dividend … Continued

Afternoon all, Glad to be back. And dried out from Devon. It might not have been Dubai level sogginess but it wasn’t far off. I’m feeling better disposed towards Hampshire and Sussex which delivered three days of walking/camping along the South Downs Way last weekend without a single drop of rain – luckily, because I … Continued

Morning all, Happy Easter to those of you celebrating consuming chocolate. You know what’s even more exciting than milk chocolate bunnies? Celebrating the start of the new year fiscally speaking. This is what living your best life is really about people. In fact, make that ‘new years’ plural, because next week you get to enjoy the arrival … Continued

Afternoon all, To make us feel better about our own political culture, France spent the week arguing about Emmanuel Macron’s biceps in now infamous boxing photos. Which is ridiculous. Because it’s his ginormous, belong-in-Bridgerton side-burns that should really be sparking outrage. British politics might have some gammons, but I’m relieved that it is largely chop … Continued

Morning all, Despite what this morning’s papers and Labour say, it’s not ‘news’ that there’s no May election. If you’re running the country you don’t call an early one after those kind of by-elections results, no matter how many squillions of pounds a racist might have given you for a campaign. The Kate photograph fandango is also … Continued

Morning all, Happy Budget week. Well, happy for the National Insurance payers among you. Commiserations to the pensioners, the landlords and the pensioner landlords. Your time will come had already come over the last few decades. So, two real stories from this Budget. The micro – winners and losers – story, which is getting harder … Continued

Afternoon all, There are questions to which George Galloway – a painfully powerful speaker in our orator free era – is the answer. They just aren’t ones we should be asking – like how do we stoke divisions. The result last night is pretty staggering. The Labour, Tory and Lib Dem vote share in Rochdale … Continued

Afternoon all, Another classic week for Britain in the world. Making an unspeakable tragedy in the Middle East about ourselves takes some doing, but we have managed it. And we’ve exported Liz Truss to the US. Apparently “it was the deep state that won it for the lettuce”. And where better to make the case … Continued

Afternoon all, Happy recession day. To help you mark the occasion, TOTCs is 24 hours early this week. And we’ve got a recession special from myself and James Smith (who runs our macroeconomic work), unpacking today’s gloomy GDP stats with everything you need to know. It’s not pretty, but if you think this is grim, just be … Continued

Morning all, It’s always nice to get emails from TOTC readers – or feedback in person at events. Sometimes there’s suggestions of reads to include, or topics we’ve never had a chart of the week on. I know you’ll find this hard to believe, but there’s even the occasional suggestion that a joke has not … Continued

Afternoon all, Over-egging your policies is normal pre-election behaviour. And we’re definitely in the, so long it makes you want to end it all, pre-election phase. But this week had a different theme: those policies getting watered down. Jeremy Hunt’s reining in expectations for the scale of tax cuts to come in the March Budget, telling … Continued

Afternoon all, It’s nice when there is something to bring the country together. Like the worst. Coup. Ever. The Prime Minister’s opponents and supporters all agree that Simon Clarke’s was the least successful heading over the top since Blackadder’s reluctant effort. That’s the risk with cunning plans. We say we want our politicians to represent the … Continued

Morning all, Apology in straight away. This was going to be a normal TOTCs, but I got sufficiently annoyed about a BBC headline this week that you’ve got a TOTCs special on… the idea that we’re about to be, or should be, post-work. “AI to hit 40% of jobs and worsen inequality, IMF says” it … Continued

Afternoon all, And a belated happy New Year. 2024 is going to be better than 2023. Why am I confident? Because reversion to the mean is a powerful thing. As we covered a fortnight back, it’ll be messy but at least there’ll be winners, as well as the losers we’re all used to being over the past few … Continued

Afternoon all, A classic week on the economics/politics front – another numpty MP means another by-election’s on the way and the economy managed to actually shrink in October. The latter’s got the over-excited saying we’re recession bound – I’ve no idea if that’s right (note today’s PMI survey shows firms perking up a little, consistent … Continued

Afternoon all, Did I mention we’ve been conducting an Inquiry into the UK economy – the Economy 2030 Inquiry? Thought not. Well we have, and this week we published its Final Report. Ending Stagnation: A New Economic Strategy for Britain is out, single handily solving all your hardest “what to get your mum/brother/lover/small child for Christmas” … Continued

Afternoon all, I’m a long way from neutral on Alistair Darling – he gave me my first big job and his wonderful wife Maggie somehow single handedly catered our wedding, a feat if I’m honest I still don’t understand. But even recognising my bias, I think Alistair deserves every one of the kind words that … Continued

Afternoon all, Hot tip in case any of you end up running the Resolution Foundation one day: don’t move house the weekend before a major fiscal event. It’s not good for your sleep/blood pressure/marital bliss. Anyway, what’s done is done – we’re in the new place and Jeremy Hunt’s made his (VERY long list of) … Continued