General Election 2024· Living Wage How to weigh up minimum wage manifesto promises Money talks but the bite is what matters 31 May 2024 by Gavin Kelly and Nye Cominetti and Hannah Slaughter While the principle of there being a minimum wage is, happily, no longer a matter of ideological contention in British politics, its future level is likely to remain a key labour market question in the general election campaign. It matters. First and foremost for the 1.6 million workers who directly rely on it (as well … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 The path back to shared growth runs through British flexicurity 4 July 2023 by Gavin Kelly Britain has been so buffeted around by economic crisis over recent years that it feels almost indulgent to cast beyond the ongoing emergency phase of economic policy to consider the longer-term prospects and pre-requisites for shared growth. But, as current US experience shows, growth is certainly possible and purposeful governments can combine short and longer-term … Continued READ MORE
Welfare System collision The interaction of Universal Credit and Child Benefit withdrawal is creating a mess 3 January 2023 by Gavin Kelly If there is anyone out there still harbouring the quaint idea that it’s the super-rich who face the highest marginal tax rates in the land, they should think again. There are various contenders for that dubious prize but we can now announce a clear winner: the small but fast-growing group of families receiving Universal Credit … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 We all pay the price for narrow thinking on social protection Chip away at the cement of society for long enough and sooner or later something will give 29 August 2021 by Gavin Kelly READ MORE
Economy 2030 Preparing for a decade of economic change Lessons from the era of White Heat 5 July 2021 by Gavin Kelly Boris Johnson’s administration may well oversee the start of a period of major upheaval for the UK economy – quite possibly the largest since the 1980s. Whether it is post-Brexit trade dislocation, new patterns of production and consumption resulting from the imperative of Net Zero, a long Covid hangover, or the rise of digital technologies … Continued READ MORE
Inequality & poverty· Wealth & assets The Child Trust Fund comes of age It presents a unique opportunity to learn about the difference that asset ownership can make 29 August 2020 by Gavin Kelly With little fanfare the UK is about to witness a mass experiment in the extension of access to capital. Other nations may have sovereign wealth funds, and some have experimented with universal basic incomes, but the UK is the first to create a citizen’s endowment for all young adults. From next week those turning eighteen … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Welfare The UK should not weaken safety nets mid-storm As more workers are laid-off this autumn, the grim reality of meagre support will become clear 11 August 2020 by Gavin Kelly Resisting pressure to spend more on disadvantaged groups is seen as part of the job by battle-hardened officials in the UK Treasury. But stripping away benefit increases that have only just been introduced is rather different and doing so in the midst of an economic collapse would, to put it mildly, be something extraordinary. Yet … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19 Churchill, the crisis and a better deal for Britain’s low paid If we are to have a Churchillian response to the crisis, let’s have the right one 6 May 2020 by Gavin Kelly It was inevitable, perhaps, that the current crisis would result in daily nods to our foremost leader during a time of national crisis. Mr Johnson, a biographer of Churchill, was always going to succumb. And during the PM’s illness a range of lesser known politicians reached for Churchill as they strained to rise to the … Continued READ MORE
Wellbeing and mental health Would a richer decade have meant a happier one? 31 December 2019 by Gavin Kelly Consider the good fortune of a country far richer than the UK. Its economy is over £300bn bigger and its workers are almost a quarter more productive than Britain’s, enjoying wages that are typically £7k higher. Households are flush enough to spend thousands more on consumption, just as public services are far better resourced. This … Continued READ MORE
Sinner or saint? The flaws of the UK labour market won’t solve themselves 29 October 2019 by Gavin Kelly The UK labour market is lauded for reaching record levels of employment at the same time as it is lacerated for the insecurities that are said to be its central feature. Two things can, however, be true at once: an economy can be job-rich at the same time as too many of its workers are … Continued READ MORE
Labour market When algorithms go to war in the workplace Businesses crunch data to gain power; workers should bend it to their own ambitions 2 July 2018 by Gavin Kelly One constant in public debate is the assertion that the world of work is on the cusp of unprecedented change. Amid the hype, one genuine source of flux is the manner in which data and technology are combining to alter workplace management and control. To date, this has been a tale of the good, the … Continued READ MORE
Can flexibility be made to work for workers? Insecurity over working hours and what to do about it 8 August 2017 by Gavin Kelly As the nature of work evolves then, sooner or later, so do the constraints and expectations that society eventually places upon employers. 19th century industrial politics were peppered with conflicts over factory conditions and the length of the working day, resulting in the Factory Acts. Much of the 20th century was shaped by the rise … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Intergenerational Centre Act now or shrink later: trade unions and the generational challenge 25 September 2016 by Daniel Tomlinson and Gavin Kelly Union membership to fall below one in five employees by 2030 unless current trends reversed The future should be full of potential for trade unions. Four in five people in Great Britain think that trade unions are “essential” to protect workers’ interests. Public concerns about low pay have soared to record levels over recent years. And, … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Productivity & industrial strategy· Economic growth Who will reap the gains of the recovery? 14 September 2015 by Gavin Kelly Poor productivity is only one part of the post-millennial wage disappointment story The productivity crisis of the last few years is far from over but economic recovery is now well-established and there are at least a few flickers of life in the official data on output per hour. The widely shared assumption, often unspoken, is … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy What impact will prolonged austerity have on interest rates? 3 August 2015 by Gavin Kelly Time to shine a light on how fiscal and monetary policy interact With prominent members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) – not least the Governor – lining up in recent weeks to talk up the prospect of rate rises at some point in the coming months, we can expect next week’s … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Low pay· Welfare Raising low pay is welcome. But we should still fear the forces hurting family incomes 12 July 2015 by Gavin Kelly George Osborne’s audacious unveiling of what he termed the “national living wage” dominated the budget coverage and succeeded in delighting, outraging and confusing in almost equal measure. Low-pay campaigners were certainly buoyed, just as some business leaders were appalled at what they viewed as a Milibandesque intrusion into pay-setting. Many others were left puzzling over … Continued READ MORE
Tax It’s time to talk about tax relief – how more accountability on tax expenditure could help ease the welfare squeeze 7 July 2015 by Gavin Kelly As the Budget approaches we await the details of deep cuts in welfare spending, but the fact that they are coming is beyond doubt. With the main tax rises having been blocked off, and public services already facing a faster pace of cuts than in the last parliament, every sinew is being strained in the … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Welfare Will wages fill the tax credit gap? Don’t Budget for it 6 July 2015 by Gavin Kelly Recent high-profile converts are bringing headlines and new vim to the debate on working poverty. Good. But with this comes a cacophony of confusion about the National Minimum Wage (NMW), Living Wage, the role of tax credits and the likelihood that a recovery in earnings will compensate for cuts to in-work support. And this risks … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Credit where it’s due? How to reform and make the most out of Universal Credit 8 June 2015 by Gavin Kelly There are some issues where a little bit of knowledge, and a lot of bluster, are all that’s needed for a politician – whether government or opposition – to get through a standard media grilling. Universal Credit (UC), the government’s flagship and troubled welfare reform that integrates six separate welfare benefits, is a case in … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Labour market The View That Britain Should Be Learning Lessons From the US Labour Market Is Long Past Its Sell-By Date 5 June 2015 by Gavin Kelly Political debates about key policy challenges often tend to idealise – and bastardise – the experience of other countries. Whether it is Finnish schools, Swedish childcare, German vocational training, Danish ‘flexicurity’, Israeli entrepreneurship or Dutch pensions, there are places that we are supposed to look to for inspiration. Usually these views are rooted in some … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances How much wriggle room will the Chancellor have in the July Budget? 22 May 2015 by Gavin Kelly After the flow of easy pre-election promises, here come the hard choices of government. As George Osborne approaches his ‘emergency Budget’ attention will turn to what room for manoeuvre he really has given all the commitments that have been made. How will it all add up and is there a version of austerity that might … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Economy and public finances· Political parties and elections How far apart are Labour and the Lib Dems on fiscal policy? 2 April 2015 by Gavin Kelly If they did a deal what might it look like: an end to austerity? Five weeks to go to polling day and it’s clear that the media, and perhaps the public, aren’t getting the answers they’d like to some of the fiscal questions the next government will have to address. What we’ve termed the candour … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Public spending· Scotland The SNP and austerity: how different are they to the other parties? 13 February 2015 by Gavin Kelly and Adam Corlett Nicola Sturgeon gave a widely trailed speech in London earlier this week majoring on the SNP’s opposition to what she said was a ‘cosy consensus’ in Westminster on austerity. In providing a few new bits of information on the SNP’s view on public spending it helped fit another piece in the jigsaw that is the … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances· Political parties and elections 2015 election – the next big ballot box surprise? 13 January 2015 by Gavin Kelly Welcome back to 1974. A tight spring election fails to produce a majority for either of the main parties, so the prime minster of the new minority government calls a second poll in the autumn in pursuit of a clear mandate. Predictions for 2015 are, of course, foolhardy. A small majority for either of the main … Continued READ MORE
Living standards 2015: The outlook for living standards – sunshine and clouds ahead 28 December 2014 by Gavin Kelly The economic recovery gained momentum in 2014, though it failed to feed through into raised living standards as much as many hoped. There are reasons for being fairly optimistic that this could start to change next year. Underpinned by the buoyant jobs market we expect household disposable incomes – the best measure of living standards … Continued READ MORE
