Economy and public finances Three things to bear in mind when watching Osborne today 26 June 2013 by James Plunkett Why everyone’s pretty much making it up 1. Most of today’s cuts were decided three years ago In his statement today, the Chancellor needs to find cuts in most unprotected departments of around 8-9 per cent. That number flows mainly from three things: the pace of deficit reduction; the decision to protect health, schools, international … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The forward march of zero-hours contracts must be halted 25 June 2013 by Matthew Pennycook “It’s the uncertainty that gets to me,” Shirley says, despondently. “These contracts only work one way – they don’t offer any flexibility even if you wanted it because if you turn down hours you suffer. One of the girls had her hours permanently reduced because she asked the line manager for a day off to … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Zero-hours contracts must be a two-way street 25 June 2013 by Vidhya Alakeson Official estimates suggest that the number of people employed on a zero-hours contract – which provides no guaranteed hours of work – has risen from 134,000 in 2006, to 208,000 in the last quarter of 2012, and that 8% of workplaces in England and Wales now use zero-hours contracts. These figures are sure to be an underestimate. … Continued READ MORE
Housing Build to rent: the obstacles for housing providers 24 June 2013 by Vidhya Alakeson When delegates gather in Manchester tomorrow for the start of the Chartered Institute of Housing‘s annual conference, there will no doubt be talk of build to rent, the government fund to stimulate new private rented housing supply and attract institutional investors. Registered providers are looking for new ways of attracting capital into housing and build to … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances SR2013: we ain’t seen nothing yet 21 June 2013 by Vidhya Alakeson When the chancellor stands up next week to deliver his one year Spending Review, it will beg a lot of questions about future expenditure cuts With a week to go before the Spending Review is announced, reports indicate that the government is making progress towards the £11.5 billion in departmental spending cuts that it needs … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Austerity after 2015: why the worst is yet to come 20 June 2013 by Matthew Whittaker With a week to go before the Spending Review, reports suggest that the Treasury has secured just a third of the £11.5bn of cuts planned in 2015-16. Yet amid the claim and counter-claim about how far departmental budgets can be squeezed, it is worth reflecting on how the review fits into the broader context of deficit reduction. … Continued READ MORE
Living standards A working solution? The continued rise of in-work poverty 13 June 2013 by Matthew Whittaker The latest edition of the DWP’s Households Below Average Income series released today shows that child poverty (i.e. those living in households with incomes less than two-thirds of the median) continued its downward trend in 2011-12. Having peaked at about 29% in 1992, the proportion of children living in poverty has since fallen steadily, reaching 17% in … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Now is the time to debate full employment 12 June 2013 by Gavin Kelly Full employment is not fantasy economics, but debate is squashed by economic complacency and fatalism A Labour leadership striving to re-earn the electorate’s trust in its capacity to manage the public finances wisely, restless mid-term Conservative backbenchers fearing they are sliding towards electoral defeat, a recession-wearied public agitated about welfare bills and a stubbornly high … Continued READ MORE
Labour market To the Point – Protecting our workers 3 June 2013 by Vidhya Alakeson This post originally appeared on the Nursery World blog Last week, the Department for Education released analysis suggesting that relaxing ratios would reduce the cost of childcare for parents by 28 per cent. In my column last month, I suggested that the Government must effectively be spending the same money twice if it was saying it … Continued READ MORE
Welfare One size does not fit all: why Universal Credit needs to work for older people 28 May 2013 by Giselle Cory This blog originally appeared on the New Statesman The shape of our labour market has altered dramatically in recent decades. Among the starkest changes is the increase in the number of older workers – from five million in 1992 to 7.5 million in 2012. One in three people of working age in the UK is already … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Intergenerational Centre The generation that’s going backwards 19 May 2013 by Gavin Kelly Falling incomes, rising prices, impossible debts … even before the crash some workers faced a suffocating squeeze When John F. Kennedy declared that “a rising tide lifts all boats” he was encapsulating the postwar belief that growth would generate steady rises in living standards for all. Even if richer households were sometimes the biggest gainers, … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances Ed Miliband has many challenges – but the spending review isn’t one of them 7 May 2013 by Gavin Kelly George Osborne’s immediate priorities shouldn’t distract Labour, which instead must focus on how it plans to cut the deficit Whether Labour matches the spending totals set out by George Osborne in the spending review is deemed to be one of the most significant questions in British politics and the sternest test yet of Ed Miliband‘s leadership. But like many self-evident truths that … Continued READ MORE
Housing The ticking debt bomb? 2 May 2013 by Matthew Whittaker This blog originally appeared on Public Finance When the financial crisis first hit, politicians of all parties talked up the notion of ‘rebalancing’ the economy, moving away from a growth model dependent on financial services, house price increases and consumption and towards one based on the real economy and on trade. Five years on and, with … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Labour’s recovery position 29 April 2013 by Gavin Kelly To assert that the next general election will be about living standards is now a commonplace in Westminster, even a cliche. Say it and people nod along. But precisely what this means – the progress the public thinks is possible, the purchase they believe political parties have on the main policy issues – remains rather hazy. Some … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Taking a local look: Household disposable income 24 April 2013 by Giselle Cory Today’s figures from the ONS show that household disposable income continued to fall in 2011. This is part of a longer term trend of stagnation and decline in incomes that began around 2003. As we showed in the Commission on Living Standards, disposable income per head fell in every English region outside London from 2003 to 2008, even … Continued READ MORE
Labour market How does the minimum wage compare to top pay? 18 April 2013 by Alex Hurrell Earlier this week the government announced that the minimum wage will rise to £6.31 from October this year. This marks a 1.9 per cent increase on the current rate of £6.19 and means the fourth straight annual fall in the real value of the minimum wage after inflation. The new rate was announced by Vince … Continued READ MORE
Labour market There’s no single, simple solution to low pay 14 April 2013 by Gavin Kelly Another year, another drop. The odds are that the impending announcement on the new rate for the national minimum wage will see a further decline in its real value, meaning a lost decade for those on the lowest pay. Wages right across the earnings spectrum have fallen, so many experts will greet this news with a shrug. But that’s unlikely … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Keeping it real 10 April 2013 by Alex Hurrell Trends in real wages under the new inflation measures Last month’s ONS Consumer Price Inflation release for February 2013 included for the first time two new inflation index series, the RPIJ (1997-2012) and the CPIH (2005-2012). These new measures have been introduced in response to concerns with the current RPI and CPI measures respectively. RPIJ … Continued READ MORE
Welfare The great tax swindle 2 April 2013 by Gavin Kelly In the week when the meaning of austerity hits home for many, the one big coalition giveaway comes in the form of the rapidly rising personal tax allowance. Any criticism about cuts to tax credits or benefits is met with the same ministerial retort: just look at the size of our tax reductions for those on low … Continued READ MORE
Labour market At Last, the Minimum Wage Debate Is Growing Up 27 March 2013 by James Plunkett This post originally appeared on James’s Huffington Post blog While low pay and in-work poverty have risen up the economic agenda in recent years, our policy debate has been stuck in a loop. Ask most Labour politicians about low pay and you can expect a well-intentioned but passive mixture of pride in the minimum wage and … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The Pay Squeeze Just Got Tighter and Longer 21 March 2013 by James Plunkett This post originally appeared on James’s Huffington Post blog As always, it’s the policy pronouncements that attract the attention on Budget day. A cheap pint is much more interesting than the minutiae of OBR figures. But the big story on Wesndesday in terms of its impact on households didn’t come from the Chancellor but from Robert … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The wage squeeze 21 March 2013 by Matthew Whittaker The OBR’s latest projections for average earnings and inflation suggest that the wage squeeze will look worse over the next few years than previously feared: wages will fall further relative to prices and recover more slowly. Our analysis of the OBR figures shows that the situation is even starker for the ‘typical’ worker – those … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Budget 2013: the new childcare support excludes families who most need help 20 March 2013 by Vidhya Alakeson In a time of austerity, why is extra money being directed towards families earning £300,000, and not those on universal credit? The centrepiece of the budget will be a new system of tax-free childcare vouchers (deliberately misnamed tax relief by the government) for middle- and higher-income families. Of the nearly £1bn earmarked for childcare, £750m is going … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Easing the squeeze: a tax cut for all? 20 March 2013 by Matthew Whittaker In the run up to today’s Budget, it has been widely reported that the Chancellor is set to announce a further above-inflation increase in the personal tax allowance – the amount that an individual can earn before becoming liable for income tax – meaning that it will reach the £10,000 target that the Government previously … Continued READ MORE
Welfare What does the childcare announcement really tell us? 19 March 2013 by Gavin Kelly This post originally appeared on Gavin’s New Statesman blog Before we rush to dissect the government’s new childcare policy it is worth pausing to reflect on the very fact that in an unprecedented time of austerity a Conservative-led administration is proposing to spend near on £1bn on childcare. There are all sorts of caveats and problems … Continued READ MORE
