Housing A sixth of UK debt is held by those who have less than £200 a month left after essentials 3 December 2013 by Gavin Kelly Thursday’s Autumn Statement is likely to generate headlines about energy bills, improving public finances and the promise of a return to real wage growth in the new year. At least that is what George Osborne, the chancellor, will be hoping for. He should also prepare himself for another rash of stories about debt-soaked Britain. When people sift the detail, they … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Starting out or getting stuck?: An analysis of who gets trapped in low paid work – and who escapes 2 December 2013 by Alex Hurrell It is generally acknowledged that the UK has a serious low pay problem. One in five employees were low paid in 2012, which compares poorly to other similar economies. But little is known about the persistence of low pay and consequently this is an under-developed aspect of the social mobility debate. This matters because many argue that, … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The price we pay for poverty wages is too high 27 November 2013 by Gavin Kelly Low pay is not simply a rite of passage that young people go through, the odds of escaping are truly grim. Living on low pay in 2013 is a rough and all too common experience, but being stuck on poverty-pay for a decade or more is tougher still. Yet for all the talk in Westminster … Continued READ MORE
Housing Crisis averted, or delayed reaction? 27 November 2013 by Matthew Whittaker As the weather gets colder, so Britain’s economic recovery appears to be warming up. The sense of optimism engendered by positive GDP and employment figures and by a range of business surveys is likely to be reinforced at next week’s Autumn Statement with significant upgrades to the OBR’s growth projections for the coming years. Clearly … Continued READ MORE
Housing Shared ownership can put a roof over the head of Generation Rent 22 November 2013 by Vidhya Alakeson With house prices out of reach for many, shared ownership could be the next big thing – but only if it makes some serious change The gap between renting and owning with a conventional mortgage, even a high loan-to-value mortgage, has become unbridgeable for low and modest income families in some parts of the country, … Continued READ MORE
Living standards The long downturn has hit labour markets hard — but it has also reshaped them 20 November 2013 by James Plunkett First there was the crisis, then the long downturn, and now—let us hope—a labour market recovery. And as Britain and America enter the third phase of a painful economic story, a new question is coming to define political debate: how will the proceeds of the recovery be shared? The answer to this question will depend … Continued READ MORE
Housing Shared ownership could help plug the housing gap 20 November 2013 by Hannah Fearn Home ownership is in decline. Rising house prices, falling wages and restrictions on mortgage lending have left this common aspiration far out of the reach of the vast majority of low- and middle-income households. Though today 64% of Britons still own their home, that figure is fast dropping, in no small part due to coalition … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Whose recovery is this? And who will reap the benefits? 17 November 2013 by Gavin Kelly Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, gave his blessing to the recovery last week, proclaiming that it had “taken hold” in the wider economy. He didn’t, and couldn’t, take a similar stance on what’s likely to happen to the living standards of low- and middle-income Britain, where there are still few signs of an … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Pay: the lost decade 13 November 2013 by James Plunkett Recent good news on the jobs front should not obscure the fact that real wages have been falling for at least four years. Overall, the wage squeeze has created a lost decade for pay New Office for National Statistics data out this morning confirms what many workers will already know: the wage squeeze continues. In … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Why the Bank of England should target wages as well as unemployment 6 November 2013 by Matthew Whittaker After months of relative inaction, MPC meetings are about to get very interesting again. While rate increases should be some way off yet, improvements in a range of economic indicators mean that ever more attention is set to shift towards the question of how and when monetary policy tightens. While calls for action are likely … Continued READ MORE
Housing Kickstart institutional investment to build new homes for generation rent 30 October 2013 by Katie Blacklock Investors have long enjoyed a love/hate relationship with property. An asset class dominated by commercial real estate, it delivers diversification and a reasonable yield in the good times. But in difficult times, upward-only rent reviews vanish, and fund managers are left wrestling with high voids and bad debts. Residential real estate, meanwhile, has largely been … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Who will benefit from the tax break for married couples? 21 October 2013 by Donald Hirsch and Matthew Whittaker Universal Credit means that married couples with children will only receive a small proportion of the gains David Cameron’s announcement of a marriage tax allowance has attracted significant interest. The policy will make £1,000 of personal income tax allowance transferable between adults who are married or in a civil partnership, provided the higher earner is … Continued READ MORE
Housing How to revive build to rent 18 October 2013 by Vidhya Alakeson The private rented sector is fast becoming the only housing option for low to middle income families. Even with Help to Buy, home ownership is too great a stretch for many, especially in expensive areas and they are very unlikely to get access to affordable housing. The UK’s private rented sector though remains characterised by … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Another Tory-Lib Dem coalition in 2015? It’s no done deal 17 October 2013 by Gavin Kelly With £40bn of fiscal misery still to come, talk of another Tory-Lib Dem coalition predicated on possible tax cuts seems far-fetched The polls suggest the next election will be tight, so we can expect 18 months of speculation about the likelihood of a hung parliament and the coalition deals that might result. Expect every policy announcement … Continued READ MORE
Welfare How to ensure a rise in the personal allowance delivers on its promise 17 October 2013 by Matthew Whittaker Income tax cuts, or the promise of them, seem likely to play a big part at the next election. Having delivered on what was initially a Liberal Democrat policy to raise the personal tax allowance to £10,000, both sides of the coalition appear keen on further increases after 2015. For its part, Labour says it … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Higher income tax thresholds won’t benefit the lowest-paid 15 October 2013 by James Plunkett No manifesto for 2015 will be complete without a promise of a tax cut. Yesterday we got our first glimpse of what the Tories might offer. Senior party figures say they want to raise the personal allowance to £12,500, matching a pledge made by the Liberal Democrats. Ministers have pitched the higher allowance as a … Continued READ MORE
Housing Building homes for ‘generation rent’ 14 October 2013 by Vidhya Alakeson The private rented sector is fast becoming the only housing option for low-to-middle-income families. Even with Help to Buy, home-ownership is too great a stretch for many, especially in expensive areas, and they are very unlikely to get access to affordable housing. We need to increase the supply of market rented homes as well as … Continued READ MORE
Welfare It’s time to be honest about who gains from tax cuts 14 October 2013 by Gavin Kelly The news that George Osborne is likely to match the flagship Liberal Democrat commitment to raise the personal tax allowance to £12.5k in the next parliament is further proof of what became apparent during the conference season: the government’s economic message is jerking awkwardly between painting a bleak account of the years of austerity still to come and sunny … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Plugging the gap 2 October 2013 by Matthew Whittaker Have lower rates helped to plug the income/expenditure gap? The latest Economic Review from the ONS provides the usual useful compilation of recent economic outputs, reinforcing the sense of momentum underpinning recovery, but questioning just how balanced this new growth is. One of the most important imbalances it picks up is between consumption and investment. Although still … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Low pay and the minimum wage at Conservative Party Conference 2013 1 October 2013 by Conor D’Arcy Low pay and the minimum wage have been one of the key themes of this year’s party conference season. Because of the running order, the Lib Dems and Labour have already had the chance to set out their stalls. Vince Cable has asked the Low Pay Commission to look at how a higher national minimum … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Why living standards and public finances matter 30 September 2013 by Gavin Kelly The party that persuades voters it can deal with both issues will win the election. They are the towering issues of British politics that are not about to go away soon: the steep decline in living standards and the grim state of the public finances. Each compounds the other. Taken together they will dictate the … Continued READ MORE
Welfare After Labour’s offer, the political battle on childcare has heated up 27 September 2013 by Vidhya Alakeson Earlier this week, Labour retook the initiative on childcare with the announcement of a major extension in free care for three-and-four-year-olds. Having been the party that established childcare as a new frontier of the welfare state when in government, Labour’s lack of a clear policy direction over the last year had left room for the … Continued READ MORE
Welfare What to make of Labour’s childcare announcement 26 September 2013 by Giselle Cory Now is a good time to talk about childcare. Costs are rocketing but incomes are not. All the while childcare support has been cut. None of this has passed by lower income families who are struggling to make work pay. It is young mums in particular who are often forced out of the labour market … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Labour must now clear a higher bar on the minimum wage 19 September 2013 by James Plunkett Vince Cable’s announcements have allowed the Lib Dems to make the running on low pay but they still leave an opportunity to set out a tougher approach. This year’s pre-conference rumours gave unusual prominence to the minimum wage. After the consensus reached in the late 2000s, leading thinkers in all parties have begun to argue that it’s … Continued READ MORE
Living standards It’s Not Just 2015 That Will Be a Living Standards Election – The 2014 Vote Could Be One Too 18 September 2013 by Conor D’Arcy Danny Alexander opened his Lib Dem conference speech yesterday by terming Glasgow the “deep south” relative to his Highlands constituency. Naff jokes aside, and a year and a day before the Scottish independence referendum, his other main reference to regional differences was the lower interest rates, lower taxes and thousands of jobs which Scotland benefits … Continued READ MORE
