Living standards· Political parties and elections What’s in store for the 2015 victor: winner’s curse or a steady recovery? 9 October 2014 by Gavin Kelly One of the laziest lines in politics is that there are good elections to lose: five years in opposition are rarely rewarding. But it’s certainly true that there are less attractive elections to win and for many 2015 falls into this category. As others have said: beware of the winner’s curse. This pessimism is increasingly … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Political parties and elections In the balance: public finances in the next parliament 2 October 2014 by Matthew Whittaker and Adam Corlett Having assured us in recent weeks that we are better together, we can expect the three main parties to provide somewhat more discordant visions of the future over the coming conference season. And, with the Coalition expected to have delivered just over half of its intended fiscal consolidation programme by the end of the current … Continued READ MORE
Pay Where next for the minimum wage? 30 September 2014 by Gavin Kelly Today marks the first real terms rise in the minimum wage in six years. It speaks volumes about the convulsions in our labour market that something that was once taken completely for granted is now viewed as a significant and welcome departure. And the rise occurs at a time when there is something of a competitive … Continued READ MORE
Pay Raising the floor: scenarios for the minimum wage in the next parliament 28 September 2014 by Matthew Whittaker The National Minimum Wage (NMW) for those aged 21 and over – the ‘adult rate’ – is increasing to £6.50 from 1 October 2014. The 19p increase represents the first real-terms rise in the NMW in six years, but will leave the rate some 4.1 per cent lower in real-terms than its peak in October … Continued READ MORE
Welfare The importance of getting the incentives right for Universal Credit 10 September 2014 by David Finch Despite parties gearing up for the next election and the chancellor already placing further spending cuts to welfare firmly on the table, attention has moved away from the expected impact of Universal Credit on families, and has instead turned to the implementation issues that have dogged it so far. Cuts in welfare spending have already … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Economy and public finances Crisis and consolidation in the public finances – reflections on our seminar with the OBR 9 September 2014 by Matthew Whittaker An exciting morning at RF-HQ. In one room, the first of our Universal Credit expert panel meetings, starting the process of reviewing the current design of UC and thinking about changes that would make the policy more likely to support people to get into and progress in work. In another, the OBR arrived to launch … Continued READ MORE
Housing A fair deal for tenants and landlords 6 September 2014 by Vidhya Alakeson For a government that emphasises rights and responsibilities, housing seems to have been left out. The government’s largest investment in housing – housing benefit – requires landlords to do nothing for their share of the £20 billion. Regardless of the quality of the home they let or the management they provide, the amount of housing … Continued READ MORE
Childcare· Welfare· Political parties and elections Childcare is a new election battleground, so why do none of the parties get it? 29 August 2014 by Vidhya Alakeson We have lost our way on childcare. No party has set out a vision for where we are trying to get as a country. Parties compete on who can invest more without any sense of an overall plan. The result is a fragmented, increasingly complex system that still expects parents to pay a higher price … Continued READ MORE
Housing The ‘housing pinched’: Which UK households are most at risk of falling over the edge? 27 August 2014 by Laura Gardiner Reading the housing headlines recently you could be forgiven for breathing a sigh of relief. House prices have showed signs of cooling in recent months, thought to be partly down to tighter mortgage lending rules that have dampened down demand. In addition, at least outside of the South, private rents have been through a year of below-inflation increases on both government and many commercial indices. … Continued READ MORE
Household debt· Macroeconomic policy To avoid squeezed households struggling, we must beware of premature interest rate rises 6 August 2014 by Matthew Whittaker Thursday’s interest rate announcement from the Monetary Policy Committee is unlikely to generate many headlines. “Bank does nothing for 65th straight month” is hardly a circulation-booster, even during silly season. But we can expect plenty of speculation alongside the announcement that the consensus among MPC members on holding rates will have been broken for the first time since … Continued READ MORE
Household debt· Housing The repossessions timebomb: how to help homeowners at risk of default 6 August 2014 by Katie Blacklock Against the backdrop of the most prolonged recession in living memory, the relatively small increase in homes being repossessed has been a welcome surprise. Numbers did spike, but they never reached the levels of the early 1990s and have been coming down steadily over the last four years. This owes something to government support programmes, … Continued READ MORE
Household debt· Macroeconomic policy Once interest rates start rising, how can indebted households be helped through the painful transition? 24 July 2014 by Gavin Kelly Whether it is this autumn, the New Year or shortly after next May’s election, everyone knows that interest rates are going to start rising sometime relatively soon. Yet despite the endless “guess the month” speculation about the precise timing of the first rise, little thought has actually been given to the bigger and longer-term question … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Living standards: what happens next? 15 July 2014 by Matthew Whittaker Going into next year’s election – the ‘living standards election’ – party political strategists are likely to fret about the length of voters’ memories. When asked whether the government has made them better off, will they compare their position with last year or with five years ago? The depth of the decline in incomes associated … Continued READ MORE
Pay Why our policy-makers have little idea of what workers are really paid 10 July 2014 by Laura Gardiner We are frequently told that earnings are the black spot on the otherwise positive labour market story, but in truth they are also the blind spot. The reason is that none of our official earnings measures captures the growing ranks of the self-employed, who now make up one in seven workers. This seems incredibly lop-sided … Continued READ MORE
Labour market By omitting the earnings of one in seven workers from jobs data, our economic policymakers are operating in the dark 10 July 2014 by Gavin Kelly Whether you view the self-employed as the silent victims of our invidious jobs market or emblems of a new spirit of entrepreneurialism spreading through society, what is beyond doubt is that the ranks of those working for themselves are swelling by the day. The numbers have grown by a staggering 700,000 since the financial crisis. … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty The poverty challenge remains – but its nature is changing 1 July 2014 by David Finch Today’s annual poverty update from the DWP is, on the face of it, fairly encouraging. Despite the poor state of the economy in 2012-13 – the period the latest figures relate to – child poverty edged down slightly, to 17 per cent from 18 per cent in 2011-12. Having fallen quite sharply at the start of the … Continued READ MORE
Pay· Economic growth Will the return of economic growth mean rising wages for workers? 19 June 2014 by Gavin Kelly How effective will advanced economies be at translating economic growth into higher wages for those in the low to middle part of the distribution and is this link weakening over time, reinforcing a ‘trickle-up’ tendency in mature economies? A great deal depends on these questions, yet they all too rarely are directly addressed. The answers … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Economic growth Rethinking post-crash social policy – IPPR’s Condition of Britain 19 June 2014 by Gavin Kelly Another day, another think-tank report. That, no doubt, is how it must feel to news desks, political hacks and listeners of the Today programme alike. Many of those reports disappear without a trace. But of those that leave a mark some succeed in making an argument that chimes with the times even if it’s not … Continued READ MORE
Household debt The Bank’s conundrum countdown – Tightening policy in the shadow of a debt overhang 17 June 2014 by Matthew Whittaker If Mary Poppins taught us anything, it’s that a British bank is run with precision. But against a backdrop of rapidly changing and sometimes conflicting economic data, the balancing act currently facing the Bank of England requires a level of calibration rarely before seen. Clearly monetary policy must be tightened over the coming months and … Continued READ MORE
Pay Deconstructing the wages data 11 June 2014 by Laura Gardiner It might not hold quite the same broad appeal as the start of the World Cup, but today’s labour market statistics release from the ONS has been hotly anticipated nonetheless, given the centrality of this data to our understanding of the economic recovery and the timing of interest rate increases. The overwhelmingly positive news we’ve … Continued READ MORE
Household debt· Wealth & assets We need to solve the mortgage problem before interest rates rise 23 May 2014 by Matthew Whittaker The question of when interest rates should begin to rise has been much-discussed in recent weeks, and after five years of sitting at the rock-bottom level of 0.5 per cent, a gradual increase is expected from next year onwards. This has implications for the UK’s 8.4 million mortgagors, one in ten of whom risk being … Continued READ MORE
Household debt· Wealth & assets· Housing The end of a ‘golden era’ for mortgages 23 May 2014 by Matthew Whittaker It’s been a busy week in the world of monetary policy. On Sunday, Mark Carney said that rising house prices pose the biggest threat to economic recovery. On Tuesday, the official statistics told us what we already knew – that house prices in London are soaring, by 17 per cent year-on-year. Some homeowners are finding … Continued READ MORE
Household debt· Wealth & assets· Housing The ‘mortgage prisoners’ with no escape route 22 May 2014 by Matthew Whittaker Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, has made headlines after expressing concerns about the dangers of another “big debt overhang” building up as house prices continue to rise and approvals for large mortgages increase. He is right to be concerned, and his intervention is a further reminder of how we need to … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Seattle, Stuttgart, Switzerland – welcome to the new era of minimum wage radicalism 16 May 2014 by Gavin Kelly Lift your gaze from the humdrum debate on living standards in the UK and look overseas: something seems to be stirring on the politics of low pay. On Sunday, the Swiss vote on whether to introduce a wage floor of an almighty 22 francs (£14.90) per hour – by some way the highest in the … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Laura Gardiner interview on self-employment 15 May 2014 by Laura Gardiner The Resolution Foundation is an independent research and policy organisation with a goal to improve living standards for the 15 million people in Britain on low and middle incomes. To achieve this they conduct rigorous research, analysis and policy development to inform public debates and influence key decision makers in government, the private sector, and … Continued READ MORE
