Firms· Productivity & industrial strategy· Economic growth Robots will enrich not replace us 21 November 2015 by David Willetts The robots are coming to take our jobs. So says Martin Ford in The Rise of the Robots, the FT/McKinsey business book of the year. Andy Haldane, chief economist of the Bank of England, last week warned that 15m jobs in Britain were at risk from automation. Is artificial intelligence about to take over? I am not so sure. Innovation is always … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances The Spending Review’s big choice: will there be five ‘big losers’ or a toning down of the cuts? 20 November 2015 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett The core of next week’s Spending Review is now becoming clear. If the Treasury delivers the pre-announced scale of cuts we will see five ‘big losers’ in Whitehall including, surprisingly for some, Education. The Chancellor is now five days away from announcing his second multi-year spending review. Since 1998 these departmental budget setting exercises have … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Five things we’ve learned from today’s earnings figures (and one thing we haven’t) 18 November 2015 by Laura Gardiner After a longer and deeper pay squeeze than even the most pessimistic of economists would have predicted, 2015 marks the year when pay growth finally returned. Today’s publication of the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) – our least timely but most comprehensive source on employee pay – gives us the opportunity to lift … Continued READ MORE
Low pay· Labour market· Pay Lifting the wage floor increases the urgency for securing productivity gains 18 November 2015 by Matthew Whittaker The welcome introduction of a significantly higher wage floor from April 2016 is set to boost the pay of around 6 million workers. But it will pose adaptation challenges for employers, particularly in lower paying sectors such as retail and hospitality. A simple thought exercise implies that maintaining a broad adherence to the international relationship … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Pay How is the UK’s pay recovery being shared? 16 November 2015 by Matthew Whittaker After 12 straight months of real-terms growth, the question on pay has shifted from ‘when will it return?’ to ‘how strong and sustainable is it’? Until now, we’ve been unable to dig any deeper to consider the additional question of ‘who’s gaining?’ but we’ll get some early clues from official data out this Wednesday. Could … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances Seven charts that show the changing shape of the state in Britain 13 November 2015 by Matthew Whittaker Seven charts that show the changing shape of the state in Britain What should the state do? That’s the question we asked at our Shrinking Pains event on Tuesday morning. Six years into a planned ten-year period of fiscal consolidation, we took a step back – with the help of Ken Clarke, Jill Rutter and … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Now is not the time to fudge on tax credits 5 November 2015 by Torsten Bell Public policy questions are often difficult, with significant trade-offs between equally important objectives. As a result most people who have spent time taking decision in government know that, despite its bad reputation, the fudge can sometimes be the right answer. It can buy time on issues where the policy substance is unclear or reconcile competing … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Welfare Tone down, phase in or transition to: the options facing the Treasury on tax credits 27 October 2015 by Torsten Bell Following developments in the House of Lords, we’ve entered a new phase in the tax credits debate. Whatever the constitutional rights and wrongs, everyone can agree that the ball is firmly back in George Osborne’s court. Indeed last night he promised to look again at the changes. The real question now is to what extent … Continued READ MORE
Tax· Welfare National Insurance cuts: far from being the silver bullet for tax credit changes they miss the target 26 October 2015 by Torsten Bell It was another busy weekend in the debate on the changes to tax credits that are set to be introduced next April. More suggestions about how the Government might ameliorate the impact on low income working families have been set out. In particular there’s been a bit of focus on the role National Insurance changes (specifically on … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Intergenerational Centre The social contract between generations in Britain is being broken 25 October 2015 by David Willetts It marks a dramatic turnaround in the fortunes of different generations that this week the IFS estimate that the incomes of pensioners – £394 per week – are higher than the incomes of the rest of the population – £385 per week. In many ways, this is a triumph. Nobody wants to see pensioners struggling … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The ‘gig economy’ – revolutionising the world of work, or the latest storm in a teacup? 23 October 2015 by Laura Gardiner Listen to some parts of the online media and tech press and you hear that the traditional employee job is on its way out. That’s especially true across the pond, but the issue is generating an increasing amount of heat here in the UK too. Whether it’s selling your crafts on Etsy or Ebay, offering … Continued READ MORE
Tax· Welfare We can’t (tax) cut our way out of the tax credit problem 21 October 2015 by Torsten Bell When it comes to this April’s tax credit cuts we’re now swiftly approaching the point where everyone accepts there is a problem, and starts to ask the real question – what is the solution? Forthcoming work from the Resolution Foundation will look at the issue in detail, but it’s worth sketching out the parameters … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay The national living wage brings public sector complications 14 October 2015 by Conor D’Arcy Since its announcement at the summer Budget, the National Living Wage (NLW) has rarely been out of the headlines. We’ve heard employer warnings on its impacts as well as some firms going one better and bumping their staff up to the ‘real’ Living Wage. But what’s received less media attention is how the public sector … Continued READ MORE
Pay· Living Wage We don’t want an economy where everything that is good is compulsory 10 October 2015 by David Willetts It is Living Wage week and Boris Johnson has said he wants employers across London to pay at a rate of £9.40 an hour, while businesses outside the capital are being asked to pay £8.25. That is not to be confused with the National Living Wage announced by George Osborne in the Summer, which will … Continued READ MORE
Low pay· Labour market· Pay The wage floor is rising, but what about the self-employed? 5 October 2015 by Laura Gardiner The lively debate around low pay – which has rocketed up the political agenda since the Chancellor unveiled his National Living Wage in July – is one that tends to confine itself to the experience of those in traditional employee jobs. There are good reasons for this, but we shouldn’t be blind to the acute … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Is today’s minimum wage rise the calm before the storm? 1 October 2015 by Conor D’Arcy It’s a cliché but if a week is a long time in politics, the seven months since the announcement of today’s increase in the National Minimum Wage (NMW) feels like an eternity. Back in March, the announcement that the minimum wage would rise by 20p to £6.70 an hour felt a little cautious given it … Continued READ MORE
Pay· Living Wage Lidl’s welcome announcement shows that employers can do things differently 18 September 2015 by Conor D’Arcy The past few months have seen some big wins for low-paid workers. This morning’s welcome announcement that Lidl will pay all their staff the Living Wage comes soon after IKEA pledged to do the same and the Chancellor’s major announcement in the Summer Budget of the ‘National Living Wage’. But as well as these positive … Continued READ MORE
Pay When it comes to the ‘National Living Wage’ being introduced to the world, it’s time for some responsible parenting 15 September 2015 by Torsten Bell The Chancellor’s introduction of a higher minimum wage – the ‘National Living Wage’ – is a policy with competitive claims to its parentage. Announced by a Government, advocated by the official opposition, and prefigured by work from a range of experts including the Resolution Foundation. From all these and more it’s now time for some … Continued READ MORE
Low pay· Pay· Living Wage The national living wage alone is not enough 15 September 2015 by Adam Corlett A pay rise for six million people sounds great but the new national living wage is a policy that that cannot stand in isolation. The National Living Wage is set to bring much-needed pay rises – but it can’t solve our living standards challenge alone. After an unprecedented six-year pay squeeze, wage levels have finally started … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Productivity & industrial strategy· Economic growth Who will reap the gains of the recovery? 14 September 2015 by Gavin Kelly Poor productivity is only one part of the post-millennial wage disappointment story The productivity crisis of the last few years is far from over but economic recovery is now well-established and there are at least a few flickers of life in the official data on output per hour. The widely shared assumption, often unspoken, is … Continued READ MORE
Pay Who gains from the new National Living Wage? 3 September 2015 by Conor D’Arcy The ‘National Living Wage’ – a top-up to the minimum wage for workers aged 25 and over – was the rabbit pulled from the Chancellor’s Red Box at the Summer Budget back in July. But beyond the healine figures published alongside it, it was hard to be sure who the main beneficiaries would be. A … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The rise and rise (?) of zero hours contracts 2 September 2015 by Laura Gardiner For many, zero hours contracts (ZHCs) are emblematic of the UK’s labour market experience during the financial crash, contributing to stronger-than-expected employment figures but also symbolising rising job insecurity. But with the economic recovery now gaining ground, the key question has been whether they’d fade away or remain as a permanent feature of the labour … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The importance of digging beneath the headline measure on employment 11 August 2015 by Adam Corlett It may have reversed very slightly in recent months, but the strong employment growth recorded over the last year or two in the UK remains little short of remarkable. The number of people in work topped 31 million in March, establishing a headline employment rate of 73.5 per cent – both historic highs. If not … Continued READ MORE
On borrowed time? The need to make the most of the ‘window of opportunity’ provided by low interest rates 4 August 2015 by Matthew Whittaker More than six years after the Bank of England’s base rate was cut to 0.5 per cent, interest rate rises finally appear to be back on the agenda. There may be good reasons for thinking that modest and gradual action will soon become appropriate, but the debt overhang associated with the pre-crisis credit boom continues … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy What impact will prolonged austerity have on interest rates? 3 August 2015 by Gavin Kelly Time to shine a light on how fiscal and monetary policy interact With prominent members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) – not least the Governor – lining up in recent weeks to talk up the prospect of rate rises at some point in the coming months, we can expect next week’s … Continued READ MORE
