Labour market Zero-hours contracts: casual contracts are becoming a permanent feature of the UK economy 9 March 2016 by Daniel Tomlinson There is much to celebrate about the UK’s labour market performance. The employment rate is at a record high of 74.1% and every region of the UK has seen employment growth over the last two years. After a long squeeze, wages are now growing faster than prices (thanks in large part to ultra-low inflation). The … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Pensions & savings· Tax Nice try, but no cigar: the Chancellor and pension tax relief 5 March 2016 by Torsten Bell We’ve known for some time that George Osborne wants to make radical changes to how the UK’s tax system encourages people to save for their pension. Yet we’ve now learnt that his preferred change is not going to happen. Here’s why he was right to agitate for reform (even if not for the particular change he … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Intergenerational Centre Life is unfair for young people – but there are ways we can fix that 1 March 2016 by David Willetts After seven years, living standards have finally returned to levels last seen before the financial crisis hit in 2008. But the effects of the downturn and the gains from recovery have not been evenly shared. While the gap between rich and poor has fallen slightly, we’ve witnessed the deepening of a new divergence, between young … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay The National Living Wage will bring Britain’s need for stronger productivity growth into sharp focus 24 February 2016 by Conor D’Arcy After months of debate, analysis and more than a little terminological confusion, the introduction of the National Living Wage (NLW) is now just five weeks away. While this substantial lifting of the wage floor for the over-24s will come as a welcome boost for the 4.5 million low paid workers set to benefit initially (rising … Continued READ MORE
Scotland· Tax Scottish Labour has a tax policy – let the debate commence 5 February 2016 by Torsten Bell Scottish Labour has a tax policy – specifically a tax raising policy. That’s a big change, whether you support it or not. In the decade and a half since devolution it is the first time the party will go into a Scottish Parliamentary election with proposals to change income tax. The proposal is to raise … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Wellbeing and mental health· Time use One billion hours: what’s happening to the working week? 3 February 2016 by Laura Gardiner Towards the end of 2015 the jobs market passed an important-sounding milestone – we now work more than one billion hours each week. This has been wholly driven by strong employment growth because at the individual level average weekly hours have actually fallen slightly over the past year, reversing the upward trend of the previous … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Welfare The shifting shape of worklessness creates new challenges 1 February 2016 by David Finch At the heart of the Welfare Reform and Work Bill – now experiencing a somewhat bumpier than expected ride through the House of Lords – sits a commitment to further reduce worklessness and at the same time move closer to full employment. Substantial progress is already being made on both – the proportion of children … Continued READ MORE
Economic growth· Macroeconomic policy Preparing for the next crisis – it’s best to ask questions now so we can shoot later 28 January 2016 by Torsten Bell In the decade leading up to the financial crisis not one speech by the then Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown mentioned quantitative easing. Between boom, bust, and prudence, unconventional monetary policy did not get a look in. The then Governor of the Bank of England managed one mention, albeit in the context of Japan … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Scotland The living standards challenge facing the next Scottish government 20 January 2016 by Conor D’Arcy The living standards challenge facing the next Scottish government This morning’s labour market statistics marked a milestone for Scotland: its employment rate has overtaken its pre-recession level, rising to 74.9 per cent. This is a welcome landmark in the recovery. But coming as it does, 15 months after England closed its ‘jobs gap’, also highlights … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Scotland Completing the jobs recovery is the key to keeping Scotland ahead on pay 20 January 2016 by Torsten Bell Right across Britain the last decade has been tough for family budgets. But for everyone apart from the very richest Scotland has been a relatively good place to be. At least when it comes to pay. In 2004 typical hourly pay in Scotland was 7.7 per cent lower than in England. This was the longstanding … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The path to full employment requires a greater focus on inactivity 12 January 2016 by Laura Gardiner If you ask most people where jobs growth comes from they will probably point to reductions in unemployment, that is, people looking for and available to work. Somewhat surprisingly, however, during normal times most new entrants come from ‘economic inactivity’, a group that reports being unavailable for or not actively seeking work for a variety … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances The billions that the spending review forgot 10 January 2016 by Adam Corlett New Year’s Eve is an exciting day. For, each year, it is the day that the government – without any fanfare – publishes new stats on the cost of tax expenditures. Presumably it is only coincidentally a time of year when scrutiny and column inches are likely to be limited. This is a shame, because … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Cities and regions Five charts that London’s mayoral candidates need to see on living standards 7 January 2016 by Conor D’Arcy It’s now less than four months to go till London’s mayoral elections. Given how important living standards issues like pay, jobs and housing are to Londoners, coming up with effective policies to tackle these challenges could make the difference in what’s set to be a tight race. Here are five charts that should be front … Continued READ MORE
Low pay· Pay New year, new challenges for Britain’s cities when it comes to low pay 4 January 2016 by Torsten Bell In three months’ time a decent chunk of working Britain will get a pay rise when the National Living Wage is introduced at the start of April. This higher minimum wage for the over-24s is a good thing given our far too high levels of low pay. It is also one of the biggest changes … Continued READ MORE
Low pay· Pay· Scotland New year, new wage: implementing the National Living Wage in Scotland 4 January 2016 by Conor D’Arcy The first week back at work after the new year is no one’s favourite, with the brighter, better spring weather still a long way off. But this year, thousands of low-paid workers across Scotland have even more cause to be impatient for the end of winter. From April, thanks to the National Living Wage (NLW) … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Building on Britain’s living standards recovery next year will require decisive action by policy makers 31 December 2015 by Torsten Bell British policy makers might well have had a contented Christmas break. At least by recent standards. In 2015 employment reached record highs while real earnings growth returned after a six-year absence. Crucially those on the lowest earnings saw the biggest rises at over three per cent. But policy makers from the Treasury to the Bank … Continued READ MORE
Tax Tax expenditures deserve far more scrutiny 30 December 2015 by Adam Corlett Last month, the UK government presented its Spending Review, setting out departmental budgets for the next four years. There were protections for some departments and large cuts (though smaller than expected) for others. Coming after years of previous cuts, many departmental budgets by 2019 will be only half what they were in 2009. Opinions will … Continued READ MORE
Household debt· Wealth & assets Why defusing the debt bomb means dealing with distributions 26 December 2015 by Matthew Whittaker Following the near-collapse of the global financial system back in 2008, it appeared only a matter of time before the UK’s household debt time bomb went boom. In aggregate, households owed just shy of 1.6 times their total income, up from a ratio of just over 1 at the start of the century. That there … Continued READ MORE
Housing Dealing with the housing aspiration gap 19 December 2015 by Matthew Whittaker Britain’s reputation as a nation of home-owners is under threat. While it’s true that just under two-thirds (65 per cent) of us own our own place, the home-ownership rate has fallen from 73 per cent since 2007. This downward trend has occurred despite the proportion owning their home outright continuing to rise gently in recent … Continued READ MORE
Scotland· Tax “An opportunity that must not be missed” – council tax reform in Scotland and beyond 14 December 2015 by Adam Corlett Scotland’s Commission on Local Tax Reform has today released its report – recommending the abolition and replacement of the current council tax system. Few would argue that council tax in its current form is particularly sensible or fair, so what happens next ahead of Scotland’s May elections should be of interest far beyond Holyrood. The … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Incomes· Prices & consumption Five charts that show who spends what in the UK 8 December 2015 by Matthew Whittaker The issue of living standards has – rightly – risen up the agenda in recent years, following the unprecedented six year-pay squeeze and severe hit to household incomes in the years after the financial crisis of 2008. Yet too little attention is given to the other side of the living standards equation: the cost of … Continued READ MORE
Low pay· Pay Clearing up the confusion around the National Living Wage 7 December 2015 by Adam Corlett The National Living Wage, the blockbuster announcement of the Summer Budget, is a hugely welcome move on low pay. But we’re now four months away from its introduction and, as a new government poll reveals, many businesses are not prepared for it. The awareness raising campaign launched today is a good start towards addressing that … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Universal Credit’s future depends on whether it’s the economics or the politics that comes first for the Treasury 4 December 2015 by Torsten Bell Incentives matter. That was one of the central assumptions behind the creation of Universal Credit. As well as creating a simpler benefits system (a good thing in and of itself), the purpose of the new benefit is to drive up employment by providing a clearer financial incentive to enter and progress in work. But incentives … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Intergenerational Centre Our country favours the old over the young – and the problem has been getting worse 26 November 2015 by David Willetts Our country favours the old over the young and the problem has been getting worse. George Osborne took some welcome steps yesterday to reverse that trend. The apprenticeship levy, the extension of student loans, and enabling sixth form colleges to escape their unfair VAT burden by converting to academies are important moves in the right … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Intergenerational Centre Skewed Britain is no country for young men 25 November 2015 by Matthew Whittaker Against all expectations, George Osborne managed to deliver something of a giveaway with his combined Autumn Statement and Spending Review. That might seem hard to believe given that day-to-day UK government spending is set to be reduced by more than £10bn over the next four years. For many departments that means cumulative budget cuts since … Continued READ MORE
