Cities and regions· Political parties and elections Bored of Brexit? Don’t switch off from the election just yet 21 April 2017 by Torsten Bell The Prime Minister called an election, and told the country it was an election about delivering Brexit. Financial markets and most commentators agreed, focusing their responses on what a surprise vote on 8th June might mean for the shape Brexit takes. But before everyone, leavers and remainers combined, who can’t think of anything worse than … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Work· Cities and regions We can work it out? The jobs challenge facing the Liverpool City Region’s mayor 20 April 2017 by Conor D’Arcy Although June’s election will dominate the headlines over the next month and a half, voters in some of England’s biggest cities will go to the polls in two weeks to elect Metro Mayors. Like all the city regions voting on a Mayor, the Liverpool City Region (LCR) – comprised of the local authorities of Halton, … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Work· Cities and regions Tees-ing out the issues 18 April 2017 by Stephen Clarke On 4 May voters in the Tees Valley will go to the polls to elect the region’s first ‘Metro Mayor’. He or she will wield new, if limited, powers affecting the whole region. But more important, in many ways, than the specific hard power of decisions the new mayor can directly control is the opportunity … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty Uneven reports on inequality 15 April 2017 by Torsten Bell Jeremy says it is racing away. Theresa says it is falling. They can’t both be right, and in fact they’re both wrong. But that doesn’t mean we don’t have an inequality problem British inequality is like bad music: It’s all about the 1980s The gap between the rich and poor hasn’t moved that much in the … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Social security· Mobility A wider range of subjects? 13 April 2017 by David Finch Today Justine Greening is giving a speech about education and specifically the attainment of children from low and middle income families. The reaction to the speech will focus on the rights (not many) and wrongs (many) of grammar schools, but that should not wholly drown out some very welcome data work released by the Department … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Social security· Tax The government’s £1bn tax and benefit giveaway will leave poorer households worse off 2 April 2017 by David Finch The arrival of April heralds a new financial year, but one that doesn’t bring with it the usual inflation-linked increases in tax thresholds and benefit rates. The former are set to rise faster than inflation – providing a tax cut for those earning more than £11,100 – while the latter continue to be frozen in … Continued READ MORE
Work It’s no April Fools’ Day for those on the National Living Wage 1 April 2017 by Conor D’Arcy In a year in which fake news has been a recurring theme, every day has felt a bit like April Fools’ Day. When it comes to the National Living Wage (NLW) however, while there might be some trickery over its name – when is a living wage not a living wage? – there’s no confusion … Continued READ MORE
Savings & debt· Wealth Time for a re-rewind on debt? 28 March 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Just like Craig David, debt made something of a comeback in 2016. Having peaked at 160 per cent on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis, household debt as a share of income fell to 140 per cent by the end of 2015. Successive increases in the first three quarters of 2016 took the ratio … Continued READ MORE
Migration· Work First signs of falling migration after the Brexit vote 23 March 2017 by Stephen Clarke Last month, we heard that net migration had fallen below 300,000 for the first time in two years in the third quarter of 2016. In addition to this, experts are predicting further falls while businesses – particularly in sectors that employ significant numbers of migrants – are voicing concerns that they will soon face labour … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty Is the Prime Minister right to say that inequality has gone down? 16 March 2017 by Adam Corlett In the brave new world of ‘alternative facts’, it’s natural to take politicians’ claims with more than the usual dose of salt. That’s particularly true when rivals appear to take very different positions on verifiable points of fact. With the Prime Minister claiming yesterday that “inequality has gone down under this government” and Jeremy Corbyn … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Tax U-turn if you don’t want to 15 March 2017 by Torsten Bell U-turns are a staple of politics, in all but the most honeymoon phases of governments. But the Chancellor’s U-turn on his Budget plan to raise National Insurance for the self-employed is a very unusual one, combining as it does a very firm defence of the need for the policy with the decision to scrap it. … Continued READ MORE
Work· Cities and regions The North-South divide in the UK’s jobs market 15 March 2017 by Daniel Tomlinson With the divisions between different parts of the UK dominating the news agenda this week, now is as good a time as any to take a deeper look at the extent to which regional divisions also exist in our jobs market. Today we learned that the UK employment rate is at a record high (again). … Continued READ MORE
Work Public sector pay in decline as spending restraints and inflation bite 15 March 2017 by Adam Corlett Average pay grew reasonably fast in 2015 and 2016 – driven more by an inflation slowdown than high productivity or nominal wage growth. However, this growth is now slowing rapidly. Adjusting for CPI inflation, ONS figures show growth in the year to January 2017 of 0.8 per cent, down from 2.0 per cent a year … Continued READ MORE
Work· Tax A small and sensible National Insurance rise for the self-employed is not the real strivers tax 10 March 2017 by Daniel Tomlinson Here’s proof that a small and sensible National Insurance rise for the self-employed is not the real strivers tax in three charts. Conservative backbenchers and some newspapers are outraged by the Chancellor’s announcement this week that self-employed National Insurance contributions (NICs) are going up. Broken manifesto pledges and headlines about men in white vans adds … Continued READ MORE
Work· Generations Sticking plasters are welcome but, for the sake of all generations, a long-term solution for social care is required 10 March 2017 by Laura Gardiner The day after a Budget is the traditional time for commentators to form a view on just who the winners and losers really are. From this perspective, it would be easy to chalk up the much-trailed announcements on social care as a win for older generations. But as the Resolution Foundation’s Intergenerational Commission is currently … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Work· Tax Reforming tax for the self-employed should be welcomed by progressives and fiscal hawks alike 9 March 2017 by Torsten Bell Raising taxes is hard for Chancellors to do. That shouldn’t be a surprise; saints aside, most human beings would rather not have less cash in their pocket. But that can’t be the end of any discussion on tax, unless you’d rather not have any schools, roads or the NHS. That’s why it’s time to put … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Work· Tax Is the Chancellor about to start closing the self-employment tax gap? 7 March 2017 by Torsten Bell The Treasury is worried the self-employed aren’t paying enough tax. Conservative backbenchers are worried the Chancellor might do something about it. But what are the facts lying behind this pre-Budget anxiety outbreak? First things first, the Treasury is right to think there’s a fairly simple issue with the self-employed and tax – they pay a … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances This Budget will be a walk in the park for the Chancellor, but there are still mountains to climb 6 March 2017 by Torsten Bell Budgets are generally a stressful time for Chancellors. Explaining whatever news the economic forecasts throw up, selling your big policy shifts and avoiding the opposition unravelling the Budget small print is normally enough to raise the blood pressure of those in Number 11. But this week is likely to feel like a walk in the … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances· Generations A Spring Budget for young, old and those in between? 6 March 2017 by Laura Gardiner At certain points in the political cycle the distribution of winners and losers at Budget time is viewed fairly cynically, with the government presumed to be focused only on vote-maximisation. But with the prospect of an early election kicked into the long grass, Phillip Hammond’s second fiscal statement this week should instead be revealing of … Continued READ MORE
Savings & debt· Wealth Automatic success for the people? 3 March 2017 by David Finch Political commentators love a good high-profile policy disaster. Think NHS IT systems or the poll tax. But successes happen too. Usually they’re small scale, making incremental improvements, often for specific parts of the population. But just sometimes they’re a really big deal – fundamentally changing outcomes for millions of people. When such victories come along, … Continued READ MORE
Work Workers on zero hours contracts hits a record high – but have they reached their peak? 3 March 2017 by Conor D’Arcy Workers on zero hours contracts hits a record high – but have they reached their peak? The UK’s labour market has been full of surprises in recent years: record employment has run alongside a record pay squeeze, while the passing away of the ‘job for life’ has been matched by a fall in people moving … Continued READ MORE
Work Is self-employment Taylor-made for people with disabilities? 22 February 2017 by Conor D’Arcy Whatever your job, it’s been hard to escape self-employment lately. Whether it’s plumbers, couriers or drivers, the pros and cons of working for yourself have rarely been far from the headlines. The Taylor Review of modern employment practices has kept the flame burning, with its recommendations likely to have consequences for all sorts of workers … Continued READ MORE
Prices & consumption· Incomes 2016 was a good year for living standards – but families didn’t splash out 16 February 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Today’s annual Family Spending release contains the usual wealth of useful information on household spending patterns. It shows that overall spending was largely unchanged in 2015-16 (at £529 a week) relative to the previous year, once inflation is accounted for. Indeed, having fallen slightly from 2006 and then increased gently after 2012, average household spending is little … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Growth 2016 was a quiet year for the British economy – but was it the calm before the storm? 15 February 2017 by Stephen Clarke In politics 2016 was a busy year. The vote to leave the European Union; a new Prime Minister; the unexpected election of Donald Trump and Matteo Renzi’s failed constitutional referendum in Italy. However, it was a relatively quiet year for the British economy. ONS statistics released today paint a picture of a labour market calmly … Continued READ MORE
Work The gig economy is a modern twist on an age old world of work dilemma 13 February 2017 by Torsten Bell A visit to the impressive remains of Housesteads Roman Fort on Hadrian’s Wall is always a good idea, not just for the views but also for some incredibly well preserved latrines. On display are stone bases above a trench, on which would have sat wooden boards for soldiers to perch on. As well as offering … Continued READ MORE
