Labour market Four decades of discontent Trumps a strong 2015 for US jobs and pay in the race to the White House 9 November 2016 by Torsten Bell Election post-mortems are dangerous things. Nearly as dangerous as elections themselves for the mental well-being of those involved. The biggest danger follows election results that few predicted – where immediate post-mortems suddenly involve people seeing with total clarity why the unexpected was always on the cards. So let’s start with some humility about what we … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances The Chancellor can use the tough economic backdrop to his Autumn Statement to make his mark on the direction of government 4 November 2016 by Matthew Whittaker A new Chancellor’s first fiscal statement is always a big deal, but the relish with which they approach it inevitably depends on the circumstances underpinning their arrival. Those entering Number 11 off the back of election victory – with a fresh mandate in hand – have the opportunity to set a clear tone for the … Continued READ MORE
Labour market A big day in court for the gig economy – but just one of many until Parliament decides. We need new technologies but old certainties too. 28 October 2016 by Torsten Bell Who exactly is self-employed? When is a worker not an employee? And how can you be an employee under employment law but not for tax law? These are difficult questions, reflecting the fact that the world of work is a complicated beast even before you start to think about how employment law, tax rules and … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Five things we learned from today’s earnings figures 26 October 2016 by Laura Gardiner Today’s publication of the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) – our least timely but most comprehensive source on employee pay – allows us to assess what was happening to pay across the workforce shortly before the EU referendum, and provides an opportunity for speculation as to what the future holds. Here – in … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Productivity & industrial strategy· Cities and regions The future of devolution is in the hands of half a dozen ‘first generation Metro Mayors’ 21 October 2016 by Stephen Clarke In less than 200 days some of Britain’s largest city regions will go to the polls to elect ‘Metro Mayors’. Unlike many other mayors across England, they will wield new powers that affect large areas and populations. Whether or not Metro Mayors are a success will depend on whether this first generation of new civic … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Productivity & industrial strategy· Cities and regions· Economic growth First impressions matter for England’s first generation of Metro Mayors 20 October 2016 by Torsten Bell First impressions matter – not just in job interviews or blind dates, but for England’s first generation of Metro Mayors too. Resting on the shoulders of the half dozen elected mayors next May in the likes of Greater Manchester, the West Midlands and Sheffield city region is not only their own careers, but the … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Britain’s self-employed workforce is growing – but their earnings have been heading in the other direction 18 October 2016 by Conor D’Arcy When people talk about “the self-employed”, there are a few images that spring to mind. Maybe it’s a white van man, someone running a small business or a freelance consultant. The growth of self-employment over the past decade and a half has been astounding. The 45 per cent growth since the turn of the turn … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Wellbeing and mental health How can employers support wellbeing in the gig economy? 17 October 2016 by Daniel Tomlinson Working in the gig economy can be a liberating experience. Freed from the rigidities of the 9 to 5 life, individuals find that they are able to enjoy work at a pace that suits them. For many, gig work and its associated flexibility is a wellbeing boost in and of itself. But for other gig … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Living standards· Inequality & poverty The “just managing” need deeds, not words 15 October 2016 by Laura Gardiner Theresa May has identified the fortunes of “just about managing” working families as her priority in post-Brexit Britain. A new government’s rhetoric precedes real outcomes against which it can be judged. But from one point of view, May’s talk about the low-paid looks well timed. Employment remains on an upward march, and after the longest … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Brexit & trade Brexit means… different things to different people 12 October 2016 by Stephen Clarke Shortly after the UK voted to leave the European Union the Resolution Foundation published analysis that explored the factors underpinning variation in the vote by place. Looking across 378 of Britain’s 380 local authorities we found that the share of Leave votes in an area was connected to measures of living standards (areas with lower … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Budgets & fiscal events· Incomes· Economy and public finances Will the new Chancellor pass the first major test of support for ‘just managing families’ in his Autumn Statement? 9 October 2016 by David Finch We are approaching the time of the football season where managers start to lose their jobs. New appointees inevitably face lots of problems, but they have an opportunity to make a name for themselves by turning things around. The key is to identify where problems are and take effective and rapid action. Even with intense … Continued READ MORE
Pensions & savings· Wealth & assets· Intergenerational Centre Young and self-ish? Who’s saving for their retirement and who isn’t 7 October 2016 by Conor D’Arcy When we worry about the pay of workers today, two groups often stand out as being hard hit – the young and the precariously employed, particularly self-employed workers that often work in the so-called gig economy. Concern for these groups stretches beyond the present. After all, low pay and a lack of saving makes it … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Labour market· Tax Will the Chancellor replace employer National Insurance with a payroll levy? 5 October 2016 by Adam Corlett The Autumn Statement – the first fiscal statement not delivered by George Osborne since March 2010 – will be no small event. Given the replacement of the Prime Minister and Chancellor, the economic implications of the Brexit vote and the resetting of fiscal policy for the rest of the parliament, there will be plenty to … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Living standards· Housing· Welfare The 14p stealth tax rise that is hammering ‘just managing families’ 30 September 2016 by Torsten Bell Judging new governments is hard. Without decisions taken, let alone results delivered, we are left to judge the early months of an administration by the purpose that motivates it. On this measure how does the first three months of Theresa May’s government measure up? First and foremost of course this government is about delivering Brexit. … Continued READ MORE
Pay· Living Wage· Economy and public finances· Political parties and elections Money can’t buy you love. But can it help you win an election? 26 September 2016 by Conor D’Arcy The centrepiece of John McDonnell’s conference speech in Liverpool today was a pledge to “write a real Living Wage into law”, creating clear (if still lyrically confusing) water between Labour and the government’s national living wage (NLW) policy. The apparent consensus around the benefits of a higher wage floor is a long way removed … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Intergenerational Centre Act now or shrink later: trade unions and the generational challenge 25 September 2016 by Daniel Tomlinson and Gavin Kelly Union membership to fall below one in five employees by 2030 unless current trends reversed The future should be full of potential for trade unions. Four in five people in Great Britain think that trade unions are “essential” to protect workers’ interests. Public concerns about low pay have soared to record levels over recent years. And, … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Intergenerational Centre· Political parties and elections Millennials need more democratic firepower to fight the growing inequalities between generations 23 September 2016 by David Willetts The demographers used to argue that it was bad news to be born into a big generation – there would be more competition for jobs and for houses. You would travel through live economy class not club class. But it has not turned out like that. Instead the big generation, the baby boomers, born from … Continued READ MORE
Intergenerational Centre· Political parties and elections Baby Boomers enjoyed a ballot box advantage over millennials worth four million votes at the last election 23 September 2016 Decline in youth turnout dates back to mid-90s and presents a major democratic challenge A combination of their large population and high turnout gave the baby boomers a four million ballot box advantage over millennials at the 2015 General Election, creating a democratic imbalance that should concern all political parties. This is according to new … Continued READ MORE
Brexit & trade· Economic growth Amid all the Brexit uncertainty, a clearer picture is emerging 21 September 2016 by Matthew Whittaker Among the many things that feel different in the post-referendum world, there is an unusual air of anticipation surrounding what would previously have been considered relatively underwhelming statistical releases. Today we were treated to a quartet of such publications. On the face of it they appear to point in different directions, allowing commentators on both … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Economic growth Elephants, globalisation, and why we shouldn’t let domestic policy makers off the hook on living standards 13 September 2016 by Torsten Bell From political rallies to university seminars, it is becoming fashionable to say that globalisation has led to stagnant living standards for working and middle classes of the developed world, leaving national governments powerless to deliver rising incomes and explaining rising political dissatisfaction with the status quo. But these are dangerous words in such simple form, … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Economic growth Blind men and the elephant: what does the elephant curve really tell us about rich countries? 13 September 2016 by Adam Corlett There is an Asian parable about a group of blind men and an elephant. The men try to determine by touch what the elephant is like, but each touches a different part of the great creature – a leg, the trunk, an ear… – and so each comes to a different conclusion. In contrast, commentary on … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Labour market· Social mobility Our education system is tilted against social mobility 12 September 2016 by David Willetts We like to think that a modern society is open and mobile – and our failures on social mobility really matter to Theresa May. It is one of the reasons for successive waves of education reform, the latest of which is being debated in parliament today, sparking a fiery debate about grammar schools not seen for … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Incomes· Social mobility· Economy and public finances Prime Minister’s ambition to help the 2.1 million “just managing” families means tearing down the “here and now” barriers to social mobility 9 September 2016 by Torsten Bell It’s understandable and right that all politicians want to focus on social mobility. Having “a fair chance to go as far as their talent and their hard work will allow”, as the Prime Minister said today, is what everyone wants for themselves and their children. And as a society the last thing we can afford … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Backslide or double down – how should the Prime Minister handle the National Living Wage? 7 September 2016 by Conor D’Arcy Theresa May has only been in her new job for a couple of months but she’s already put her stamp on the government. The most obvious break from the previous administration has been the change of personnel. But while the previous Chancellor and his allies are no longer around the Cabinet table, it may be … Continued READ MORE
Firms· Prices & consumption· Economic growth Businesses’ Brexit concerns haven’t stopped us shopping 18 August 2016 by Matthew Whittaker Business are worried about Brexit, but consumers haven’t got the memo. That’s the state of play from the limited evidence that has emerged since the vote on 23 June. In the short term firms and people can have different views about its impact. But, just as in the long run we are all dead, so … Continued READ MORE
