Labour market· Tax A small and sensible National Insurance rise for the self-employed is not the real strivers tax 10 March 2017 by Daniel Tomlinson Here’s proof that a small and sensible National Insurance rise for the self-employed is not the real strivers tax in three charts. Conservative backbenchers and some newspapers are outraged by the Chancellor’s announcement this week that self-employed National Insurance contributions (NICs) are going up. Broken manifesto pledges and headlines about men in white vans adds … Continued READ MORE
Social care· Intergenerational Centre Sticking plasters are welcome but, for the sake of all generations, a long-term solution for social care is required 10 March 2017 by Laura Gardiner The day after a Budget is the traditional time for commentators to form a view on just who the winners and losers really are. From this perspective, it would be easy to chalk up the much-trailed announcements on social care as a win for older generations. But as the Resolution Foundation’s Intergenerational Commission is currently … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Labour market· Tax Reforming tax for the self-employed should be welcomed by progressives and fiscal hawks alike 9 March 2017 by Torsten Bell Raising taxes is hard for Chancellors to do. That shouldn’t be a surprise; saints aside, most human beings would rather not have less cash in their pocket. But that can’t be the end of any discussion on tax, unless you’d rather not have any schools, roads or the NHS. That’s why it’s time to put … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Labour market· Tax Is the Chancellor about to start closing the self-employment tax gap? 7 March 2017 by Torsten Bell The Treasury is worried the self-employed aren’t paying enough tax. Conservative backbenchers are worried the Chancellor might do something about it. But what are the facts lying behind this pre-Budget anxiety outbreak? First things first, the Treasury is right to think there’s a fairly simple issue with the self-employed and tax – they pay a … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances This Budget will be a walk in the park for the Chancellor, but there are still mountains to climb 6 March 2017 by Torsten Bell Budgets are generally a stressful time for Chancellors. Explaining whatever news the economic forecasts throw up, selling your big policy shifts and avoiding the opposition unravelling the Budget small print is normally enough to raise the blood pressure of those in Number 11. But this week is likely to feel like a walk in the … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Intergenerational Centre A Spring Budget for young, old and those in between? 6 March 2017 by Laura Gardiner At certain points in the political cycle the distribution of winners and losers at Budget time is viewed fairly cynically, with the government presumed to be focused only on vote-maximisation. But with the prospect of an early election kicked into the long grass, Phillip Hammond’s second fiscal statement this week should instead be revealing of … Continued READ MORE
Pensions & savings· Wealth & assets Automatic success for the people? 3 March 2017 by David Finch Political commentators love a good high-profile policy disaster. Think NHS IT systems or the poll tax. But successes happen too. Usually they’re small scale, making incremental improvements, often for specific parts of the population. But just sometimes they’re a really big deal – fundamentally changing outcomes for millions of people. When such victories come along, … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Workers on zero hours contracts hits a record high – but have they reached their peak? 3 March 2017 by Conor D’Arcy Workers on zero hours contracts hits a record high – but have they reached their peak? The UK’s labour market has been full of surprises in recent years: record employment has run alongside a record pay squeeze, while the passing away of the ‘job for life’ has been matched by a fall in people moving … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Is self-employment Taylor-made for people with disabilities? 22 February 2017 by Conor D’Arcy Whatever your job, it’s been hard to escape self-employment lately. Whether it’s plumbers, couriers or drivers, the pros and cons of working for yourself have rarely been far from the headlines. The Taylor Review of modern employment practices has kept the flame burning, with its recommendations likely to have consequences for all sorts of workers … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Prices & consumption 2016 was a good year for living standards – but families didn’t splash out 16 February 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Today’s annual Family Spending release contains the usual wealth of useful information on household spending patterns. It shows that overall spending was largely unchanged in 2015-16 (at £529 a week) relative to the previous year, once inflation is accounted for. Indeed, having fallen slightly from 2006 and then increased gently after 2012, average household spending is little … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Economic growth 2016 was a quiet year for the British economy – but was it the calm before the storm? 15 February 2017 by Stephen Clarke In politics 2016 was a busy year. The vote to leave the European Union; a new Prime Minister; the unexpected election of Donald Trump and Matteo Renzi’s failed constitutional referendum in Italy. However, it was a relatively quiet year for the British economy. ONS statistics released today paint a picture of a labour market calmly … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The gig economy is a modern twist on an age old world of work dilemma 13 February 2017 by Torsten Bell A visit to the impressive remains of Housesteads Roman Fort on Hadrian’s Wall is always a good idea, not just for the views but also for some incredibly well preserved latrines. On display are stone bases above a trench, on which would have sat wooden boards for soldiers to perch on. As well as offering … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Intergenerational Centre The annual Grigor McClelland Lecture 10 February 2017 by Torsten Bell Torsten Bell, Director, Resolution Foundation: Renewing the Intergenerational Contract: age and 21st Century inequality Thursday 9 February 5.45pm-8.00pm Alliance Manchester Business School East In July 2016 Resolution Foundation launched its flagship Intergenerational Commission that brings together leading experts from the business, academia and public policy to consider how government, business and wider society can fix … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Intergenerational Centre No country for young men? 9 February 2017 by Daniel Tomlinson In decades gone by paid work was a thing that men did. Families, the world of work and the welfare state were structured to make this the norm. But this mid-20th century certainty is no more. Women in the UK are participating in the labour market in ever greater numbers with the gender employment gap … Continued READ MORE
Housing Six key charts ahead of the housing White Paper 6 February 2017 by Lindsay Judge It’s been trailed all over the weekend, so it feels like we already know a lot of what is going to be in the much-awaited housing White Paper when it is finally published tomorrow. But will it really mark a sea-change in housing policy? Or be simply another document we can add to the pile … Continued READ MORE
Housing The delicate balance of ‘build to rent’ 6 February 2017 by Lindsay Judge How times change. Twenty five year ago less than one in ten families rented their home from a private landlord; today that figure stands at close to one in five. Renting is no longer the tenure of just the footloose and fancy-free who prize the flexibility that it offers. The private rented sector (PRS) is … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Enough of the pessimism about the rise of the robots 3 February 2017 by Adam Corlett Will all our jobs soon be replaced by robots? Recent headlines suggest so. But historical experience casts doubt on such sensationalism. Indeed there are reasons for us to encourage more automation, rather than worry about the harm it will do. It is common now to hear theories about how new technologies are leading us towards … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty Back to the ‘80s: Projections for living standards and inequality in the UK 1 February 2017 by Adam Corlett and Stephen Clarke The UK economy has, in many respects, performed well recently. Last week it was revealed that GDP grew by 2 per cent in 2016, above the OECD average, and higher than forecasters expected when the country voted to leave the European Union. Employment is at a record high and average wages, although still 4 per … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Incomes· Inequality & poverty Let’s avoid a poor rerun of the 1980s 1 February 2017 by Torsten Bell The 1980s deserve a bad reputation. Sweatbands, leg warmers, and diverse crimes against hair –think perms and mullets, feathered or otherwise. Then we start on the self-indulgence of the music and the fact that Rick Astley was allowed an entire career. Yes we had the Smiths but even Bob Dylan had a bad decade. On … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Brexit & trade Britain has enjoyed a mini living standards boom – so why did we vote for change? 29 January 2017 by Torsten Bell The living standards story of last year was record employment, a higher minimum wage and the strongest income growth for a decade. Britain’s never had it so moderately okay. What’s more inequality was either flat or falling – poorer households did better than most. But the democracy story was a Brexit vote for big change … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Labour market Jobs, the rise of Trump and the dangers of fatalism 23 January 2017 by Torsten Bell Even for those not based in the US, it’s been hard to avoid a long weekend of an inauguration, marches, facts and alternative facts. But today Donald Trump settles into “his first business day” (for those counting there’s at least a little over 1,000 of those to come), and jobs are top of his agenda. … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Productivity & industrial strategy· Skills· Inequality & poverty· Cities and regions Can a new generation of political leaders tackle Britain’s regional inequalities? 20 January 2017 by Stephen Clarke 2017 will see the UK begin its departure from the European Union. However, as the UK seeks to shed some politicians in Brussels, we will be getting some new ones at home. Greater Manchester, Liverpool, Tees, West Midlands, Bristol and Bath, and Cambridgeshire and Peterborough will all go to the polls to elect mayors and … Continued READ MORE
Household debt· Prices & consumption Consumer borrowing is up. But will it last, and should we be concerned? 12 January 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Consumer borrowing is increasing at its fastest rate in 11 years. As the chart below shows, outstanding debts (excluding mortgages and student loans) rose by 10.8 per cent in November 2016 – faster than any time since October 2005. This surge has inevitably prompted concerns that the UK is heading back down the path of … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Incomes· Inequality & poverty Inequality has reached a 30-year low. So should we still care? 10 January 2017 by Matthew Whittaker The joke goes that in the pub quizzes of the future, the answer to every question that starts “in what year…” will be 2016. But it’s likely that few will correctly identify that 2016 was also the year in which household income inequality fell to its lowest post-Thatcher level. Yet, thanks to a combination of … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay· Intergenerational Centre Is the gender pay gap on the brink of closure for young women today? 4 January 2017 by Laura Gardiner A common challenge to those – like us – who spend time voicing our concerns about the lot of today’s younger generation is a simple question: would you rather be born in 1960 or 1990? The argument runs that even millennials on modest incomes have smartphones that a boomer could only have dreamed of at … Continued READ MORE
