Living standards· Inequality & poverty· Economic growth Whose recovery is this? 11 May 2017 by Stephen Clarke Much has been written about the success of the UK economy recently. Last year the country was (almost) the fastest growing economy in the G7 and confounded expectations that the vote to leave the European Union would cause an economic slowdown if not outright recession. And yet, in many parts of the country this tale … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The evidence is mounting that Zero Hours Contracts have reached their peak 11 May 2017 by Daniel Tomlinson What happens when unemployment is at a close to 40 year low, as it is in the UK today? Economic textbooks tells you that pay pressures mount. But that is not happening – instead a pay squeeze has returned in 2017. Instead, it looks as if more competition for jobs might just be pushing up … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Public spending· Economy and public finances Put your crocs away, but get your calculators out – we still need to talk about the deficit 11 May 2017 by Torsten Bell Fashions come and fashions go, in politics as on the catwalk. One minute an issue looks like it’s the only thing that matters, and the next no-politician wants to mention it. As this general election rolls on the thing that is becoming ever clearer is that the fiscal deficit is the British political equivalent of … Continued READ MORE
Tax· Political parties and elections Let’s talk about tax 6 May 2017 by Torsten Bell Something unusual is happening in this general election campaign. Everyone is talking about raising taxes. Last Sunday Theresa May told Britain she wouldn’t be repeating David Cameron’s mistake of ruling out ever raising any of National Insurance, income tax or VAT. Before that Labour’s Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, had hinted that people earning over £70-£80,000 … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Incomes· Intergenerational Centre Older people on lower incomes are being ignored 4 May 2017 by Torsten Bell To triple lock or not to triple lock (the state pension). Who has a secret tax bombshell ready for hard working families? It’s not just the rows that are being repeated in what feels something like an election on autopilot, it’s also the groups of voters that the parties are focusing on: pensioners and the … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Cities and regions· Economic growth No more robot wars in London 2 May 2017 by Torsten Bell “The robots are coming to take our jobs”, the Evening Standard told Londoners in December 2016. In case that didn’t depress their readers enough, the article went on to spell out the coming doom: “The sheer pace of change in computational power and grinding efficiencies of automation will alter or eliminate many of our jobs, … Continued READ MORE
Cities and regions· Political parties and elections Bored of Brexit? Don’t switch off from the election just yet 21 April 2017 by Torsten Bell The Prime Minister called an election, and told the country it was an election about delivering Brexit. Financial markets and most commentators agreed, focusing their responses on what a surprise vote on 8th June might mean for the shape Brexit takes. But before everyone, leavers and remainers combined, who can’t think of anything worse than … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Labour market· Cities and regions We can work it out? The jobs challenge facing the Liverpool City Region’s mayor 20 April 2017 by Conor D’Arcy Although June’s election will dominate the headlines over the next month and a half, voters in some of England’s biggest cities will go to the polls in two weeks to elect Metro Mayors. Like all the city regions voting on a Mayor, the Liverpool City Region (LCR) – comprised of the local authorities of Halton, … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Labour market· Cities and regions Tees-ing out the issues 18 April 2017 by Stephen Clarke On 4 May voters in the Tees Valley will go to the polls to elect the region’s first ‘Metro Mayor’. He or she will wield new, if limited, powers affecting the whole region. But more important, in many ways, than the specific hard power of decisions the new mayor can directly control is the opportunity … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty Uneven reports on inequality 15 April 2017 by Torsten Bell Jeremy says it is racing away. Theresa says it is falling. They can’t both be right, and in fact they’re both wrong. But that doesn’t mean we don’t have an inequality problem British inequality is like bad music: It’s all about the 1980s The gap between the rich and poor hasn’t moved that much in the … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Social mobility· Welfare A wider range of subjects? 13 April 2017 by David Finch Today Justine Greening is giving a speech about education and specifically the attainment of children from low and middle income families. The reaction to the speech will focus on the rights (not many) and wrongs (many) of grammar schools, but that should not wholly drown out some very welcome data work released by the Department … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Tax· Welfare The government’s £1bn tax and benefit giveaway will leave poorer households worse off 2 April 2017 by David Finch The arrival of April heralds a new financial year, but one that doesn’t bring with it the usual inflation-linked increases in tax thresholds and benefit rates. The former are set to rise faster than inflation – providing a tax cut for those earning more than £11,100 – while the latter continue to be frozen in … Continued READ MORE
Low pay· Labour market· Pay It’s no April Fools’ Day for those on the National Living Wage 1 April 2017 by Conor D’Arcy In a year in which fake news has been a recurring theme, every day has felt a bit like April Fools’ Day. When it comes to the National Living Wage (NLW) however, while there might be some trickery over its name – when is a living wage not a living wage? – there’s no confusion … Continued READ MORE
Household debt· Wealth & assets Time for a re-rewind on debt? 28 March 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Just like Craig David, debt made something of a comeback in 2016. Having peaked at 160 per cent on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis, household debt as a share of income fell to 140 per cent by the end of 2015. Successive increases in the first three quarters of 2016 took the ratio … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Migration First signs of falling migration after the Brexit vote 23 March 2017 by Stephen Clarke Last month, we heard that net migration had fallen below 300,000 for the first time in two years in the third quarter of 2016. In addition to this, experts are predicting further falls while businesses – particularly in sectors that employ significant numbers of migrants – are voicing concerns that they will soon face labour … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty Is the Prime Minister right to say that inequality has gone down? 16 March 2017 by Adam Corlett In the brave new world of ‘alternative facts’, it’s natural to take politicians’ claims with more than the usual dose of salt. That’s particularly true when rivals appear to take very different positions on verifiable points of fact. With the Prime Minister claiming yesterday that “inequality has gone down under this government” and Jeremy Corbyn … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Tax U-turn if you don’t want to 15 March 2017 by Torsten Bell U-turns are a staple of politics, in all but the most honeymoon phases of governments. But the Chancellor’s U-turn on his Budget plan to raise National Insurance for the self-employed is a very unusual one, combining as it does a very firm defence of the need for the policy with the decision to scrap it. … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Cities and regions The North-South divide in the UK’s jobs market 15 March 2017 by Daniel Tomlinson With the divisions between different parts of the UK dominating the news agenda this week, now is as good a time as any to take a deeper look at the extent to which regional divisions also exist in our jobs market. Today we learned that the UK employment rate is at a record high (again). … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Public sector pay in decline as spending restraints and inflation bite 15 March 2017 by Adam Corlett Average pay grew reasonably fast in 2015 and 2016 – driven more by an inflation slowdown than high productivity or nominal wage growth. However, this growth is now slowing rapidly. Adjusting for CPI inflation, ONS figures show growth in the year to January 2017 of 0.8 per cent, down from 2.0 per cent a year … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Tax A small and sensible National Insurance rise for the self-employed is not the real strivers tax 10 March 2017 by Daniel Tomlinson Here’s proof that a small and sensible National Insurance rise for the self-employed is not the real strivers tax in three charts. Conservative backbenchers and some newspapers are outraged by the Chancellor’s announcement this week that self-employed National Insurance contributions (NICs) are going up. Broken manifesto pledges and headlines about men in white vans adds … Continued READ MORE
Social care· Intergenerational Centre Sticking plasters are welcome but, for the sake of all generations, a long-term solution for social care is required 10 March 2017 by Laura Gardiner The day after a Budget is the traditional time for commentators to form a view on just who the winners and losers really are. From this perspective, it would be easy to chalk up the much-trailed announcements on social care as a win for older generations. But as the Resolution Foundation’s Intergenerational Commission is currently … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Labour market· Tax Reforming tax for the self-employed should be welcomed by progressives and fiscal hawks alike 9 March 2017 by Torsten Bell Raising taxes is hard for Chancellors to do. That shouldn’t be a surprise; saints aside, most human beings would rather not have less cash in their pocket. But that can’t be the end of any discussion on tax, unless you’d rather not have any schools, roads or the NHS. That’s why it’s time to put … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Labour market· Tax Is the Chancellor about to start closing the self-employment tax gap? 7 March 2017 by Torsten Bell The Treasury is worried the self-employed aren’t paying enough tax. Conservative backbenchers are worried the Chancellor might do something about it. But what are the facts lying behind this pre-Budget anxiety outbreak? First things first, the Treasury is right to think there’s a fairly simple issue with the self-employed and tax – they pay a … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances This Budget will be a walk in the park for the Chancellor, but there are still mountains to climb 6 March 2017 by Torsten Bell Budgets are generally a stressful time for Chancellors. Explaining whatever news the economic forecasts throw up, selling your big policy shifts and avoiding the opposition unravelling the Budget small print is normally enough to raise the blood pressure of those in Number 11. But this week is likely to feel like a walk in the … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Intergenerational Centre A Spring Budget for young, old and those in between? 6 March 2017 by Laura Gardiner At certain points in the political cycle the distribution of winners and losers at Budget time is viewed fairly cynically, with the government presumed to be focused only on vote-maximisation. But with the prospect of an early election kicked into the long grass, Phillip Hammond’s second fiscal statement this week should instead be revealing of … Continued READ MORE
