Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Tax The Chancellor may have one arm tied behind his back, but there are still tax levers he can pull 21 October 2018 by Adam Corlett How can a government with a tenuous majority, an intra-party feud and Brexit uncertainty find the money to ‘end austerity’ on top of more than £20 billion a year it has promised for the NHS? The safe bet is that it won’t find anywhere near all of it in the Budget. This can – like … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Welfare Despite ‘the end of austerity’, April promises another deep benefit cut 17 October 2018 by Adam Corlett Today we learned just how deep the benefits freeze will be in its fourth and final year. In July 2015, having promised £12 billion of welfare cuts – reportedly on the assumption that the Liberal Democrats would argue this down – George Osborne announced exactly that. Chief among these cuts was a further working age … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Delaying rollout of Universal Credit is a sensible step – but fundamental reforms are still needed 16 October 2018 by David Finch Today we learnt that the government is preparing a package of measures for Universal Credit (UC) ahead of the upcoming Budget – but what are they changing and what difference might it make? The first thing to understand is that these changes aren’t about the fundamentals of either the generosity or operation of Universal Credit … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Has Britain’s long overdue pay recovery finally arrived? 16 October 2018 by Stephen Clarke In 1965 The Kinks sang “I’m so tired, tired of waiting, tired of waiting for you”. This neatly sums up how many of us have felt about the UK labour market over the past decade, in particular our pay packets. Since 2009 we’ve grown quite tired of waiting for signs that pay growth could be … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Universal Credit: the honesty we owe and the changes we need 12 October 2018 by Torsten Bell and Resolution Foundation Analysis All is not well in the land of Universal Credit (UC). Cabinet ministers are angsting in private about the challenges of rolling out this government’s single biggest domestic policy reform. Two ex-Prime Ministers are worrying in public that the benefit risks becoming a new poll tax. And Labour has (rhetorically at least) promised to scrap … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances The OBR on Brexit: known-unknowns and unknown-unknowns cast shadow over the Budget 11 October 2018 by James Smith As if Philip Hammond’s job over the next few weeks wasn’t tough enough already, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) this morning has published its thinking on how Brexit will make his life harder for many years to come. Already charged with “ending austerity” (which, as Torsten pointed out last week, is a stretch to … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Tax· Intergenerational Centre· Political parties and elections Britain is set to replace the era of austerity with a new era of tax rises 7 October 2018 by David Willetts The main message that has united both main party conferences over the last fortnight is that the era of austerity is over. For Labour that means more spending on new things – from universal childcare to a mass programme of nationalisation. And for many Conservatives it means a return to what they love doing best … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Economy and public finances The end of austerity? Not so much 3 October 2018 by Torsten Bell and Resolution Foundation Analysis The Prime Minister made a big bold statement today. No, not that she likes to dance to Abba (who doesn’t) but that she was “ending austerity”. Announcing the end of austerity is sensible politics. After all who, apart from a few fringe think-tanks, says they want more austerity in of itself? There are also signs … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax Is there enough fuel in the fiscal tank for another duty freeze? 3 October 2018 by Matthew Whittaker After eight years of freezes, it had started to look like successive governments’ cancellation of the annual RPI-linked uprating of fuel duty had run out of road. After all, it’s already costing the government around £9 billion a year, and that cost will grow with each passing year. But we now know that the Chancellor … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Five charts to chill the Chancellor’s blood ahead of the Budget 28 September 2018 by Matthew Whittaker We now know that this year’s Budget will be delivered on 29 October, making it the first Monday Budget since 1962. The traditional Wednesday has been avoided, we’re told, to side-step negative Halloween-based headlines. Yet there’s still plenty of scary stuff for the Chancellor to deal with – from finding the £20 billion needed to … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Did you feel happy yesterday? Broadening the measurement of living standards 26 September 2018 by George Bangham Today the ONS released their latest statistics on well-being in the UK, as they have done since 2011. These stats have their sceptics, both over the maths involved and over the very idea you can measure happiness over time (let alone orient policy towards it). But they matter: self-assessed well-being gives us an insight into … Continued READ MORE
Demographics· Intergenerational Centre· Political parties and elections Demography is the new class war 21 September 2018 by Torsten Bell The real question about this year’s Labour Party conference is what on earth everyone will talk about for four days. The supposed Brexit barney will be a damp squib and leadership rows have disappeared. So here’s a suggestion to fill the awkward silences: it’s time Labour talked about the arrival of generational divides in our … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Migration MAC to the future 18 September 2018 by Stephen Clarke This morning the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) released the final report in its year-long (plus) investigation into EU migration. The report is arguably the most comprehensive assessment of how migration has affected the UK over the past two decades, dealing with topics as diverse as the labour market, housing, public finances and subjective wellbeing. In … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Skills Alternative paths to success? The jobs landscape facing young non-graduates today 18 September 2018 by Conor D’Arcy and Kathleen Henehan From photos of jumping A level students to guides to freshers’ week, at this time of year it can feel like university is the only route taken by teenagers. But in fact, fewer than half of young people follow this seemingly well-trodden path at 18. And, as this morning’s ONS publication about non-graduates’ employment patterns … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Intergenerational Centre Welcome to adulthood, millennial 13 September 2018 by Laura Gardiner 2018 is the year in which the babies of the millennium reach adulthood. Back in January, this was mainly marked by existential online angst about how those born when Britney Spears’s ‘Oops!… I Did It Again’ was in the charts are reaching legal drinking age. Today’s 18 in 2018 publication from the Office for National … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Labour market statistics analysis: a tepid pay recovery is emerging 11 September 2018 by George Bangham The monthly labour market stats have followed a similar pattern for a while now; new employment records set, while pay continues to stagnate. Today’s figures haven’t quite followed the script. Take pay growth first. Nominal wage growth has nudged up to 2.9 per cent for only the second time since mid-2015, with real pay growth … Continued READ MORE
Inequality & poverty· Cities and regions· Wealth & assets Regional wealth inequality: a nation divided 1 September 2018 by Conor D’Arcy On Monday, families across the country will be feeling a mix of excitement, anxiety and relief as kids go back to school (with Scotland having already gone through it). Experiences that unite every corner of the UK feel rarer these days, with talk of division and left-behind places common. Differences between South Shields and South … Continued READ MORE
Wealth & assets· Tax Entrepreneurs’ Relief has cost £22 billion over the past 10 years. Was it worth it? 29 August 2018 by Adam Corlett The hunt is on for extra tax revenues. First came the announcement of an NHS funding boost, back in June. Now, the Chancellor has the harder task of working out where he will find the more than £20 billion required. Some is likely to come from higher borrowing, and better than expected public finance figures … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Skills The apprenticeship levy a year on: lessons learned 23 August 2018 by Kathleen Henehan This piece originally appeared on tes. With today’s headlines focused on the trials and tribulations of A-level results and university acceptances, you’d be forgiven for thinking that a majority of today’s 18-year-olds proceed directly from the school gates into the halls of higher education. Of course, they do not: over half of today’s 19-year-olds are engaged … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Full employment: we’re half way there 22 August 2018 by Stephen Clarke In early 2014 the then Chancellor, George Osborne committed to ‘fight for full employment’. At the time the employment rate (for those aged 16 – 64) was 72.9 per cent and the unemployment rate (for those over 16) 6.4 per cent. The Chancellor didn’t commit to a specific figure, but his goal was to have … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay· Skills Employers are offering a growing ‘disloyalty bonus’ – young people should take advantage 2 August 2018 by Stephen Clarke This piece was first published on i. First they took away the long-service awards: carriage clocks and gold watches; now they’re coming for your pay rises; loyalty no longer pays in UK firms. That’s the big takeaway from new Resolution Foundation research looking at what’s happening in the jobs market. In the late 1990s if … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay· Skills Spotlight: The growing ‘disloyalty bonus’ 2 August 2018 by Stephen Clarke Working out whether it’s worth waiting for Godot relies on a clear reading of what’s happening to wage growth. One factor that influences this is the changing composition of the workforce. In the short-run one of the big changes is that since 2012 the number of people employed in the UK has risen by 2.5 … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Prices & consumption Guest blog: When the ONS changes its mind, economic policy and political reputation are on the line 30 July 2018 by Dan Corry and Peter Kenway In these ‘post-expert’ times, it’s worth remembering that good policy rests on good evidence. Our fiscal and monetary institutions don’t just set policy with reference to economic theory, but in relation to what’s going on in the economy. So – as we heard earlier this week – when history gets re-written in a way that … Continued READ MORE
Firms· Productivity & industrial strategy· Economy and public finances· Economic growth Time to concentrate on our capitalism 26 July 2018 by Torsten Bell and Daniel Tomlinson Our politicians are anxious. And not just because no-one has a decent poll lead or idea where Brexit will end up. No, some are finding the time to get anxious about other things too, including the state of capitalism in the UK. The angst isn’t limited to the left either, with Michael Gove becoming a … Continued READ MORE
Childcare· Inequality & poverty· Welfare A history lesson wouldn’t hurt – at least when it comes to child poverty 24 July 2018 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett This blog originally appeared on Times Red Box. A few years back there was an outbreak of national angst about no one studying history any more. The House of Lords even managed a debate on it. That worry seems a long way down the list of concerns these days, when everyone has the latest Donald … Continued READ MORE
