Economy and public finances Four tests for Osborne’s Budget 20 March 2014 by James Plunkett This post originally appeared on The Spectator With the Coalition taking pre-Budget briefing to new levels you’d be excused for thinking there’s little we don’t know about tomorrow’s statement. But here are four questions we can’t yet answer, and that will be crucial to assessing whether this is a Budget for low-to-middle earners as the Chancellor claims: … Continued READ MORE
Welfare The case for looser childcare ratios rests on confusion 29 January 2014 by James Plunkett This blog originally appeared on the New Statesman The government claims to want to reduce costs and increase quality. It can’t have it both ways. This morning’s announcement on childcare ratios should be just the hors d’oeuvre before the government sets out its plans to increase childcare support for parents. According to the latest rumours, it now … Continued READ MORE
Labour market These wage stats don’t tell us much about living standards 24 January 2014 by James Plunkett This morning the government released some interesting new stats on wages. It claims that 90 per cent of people saw their earnings rise in the year to April 2013. As I tweeted earlier this week, the data source that the government are using tells a more positive story about wages than the more regular earnings data that drives most … Continued READ MORE
Living standards The Treasury has a point on living standards — but it ignores the role of inequality 5 December 2013 by James Plunkett One of the big surprises in today’s Autumn Statement lies in the new OBR projections. Growth has been revised up as expected—at least in the short-term. But wage forecasts are down. Amazingly, after today’s largely positive economic news, the squeeze on wages is now going to be even longer than the OBR thought in March. The updates reflect … Continued READ MORE
Living standards The long downturn has hit labour markets hard — but it has also reshaped them 20 November 2013 by James Plunkett First there was the crisis, then the long downturn, and now—let us hope—a labour market recovery. And as Britain and America enter the third phase of a painful economic story, a new question is coming to define political debate: how will the proceeds of the recovery be shared? The answer to this question will depend … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Pay: the lost decade 13 November 2013 by James Plunkett Recent good news on the jobs front should not obscure the fact that real wages have been falling for at least four years. Overall, the wage squeeze has created a lost decade for pay New Office for National Statistics data out this morning confirms what many workers will already know: the wage squeeze continues. In … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Higher income tax thresholds won’t benefit the lowest-paid 15 October 2013 by James Plunkett No manifesto for 2015 will be complete without a promise of a tax cut. Yesterday we got our first glimpse of what the Tories might offer. Senior party figures say they want to raise the personal allowance to £12,500, matching a pledge made by the Liberal Democrats. Ministers have pitched the higher allowance as a … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Labour must now clear a higher bar on the minimum wage 19 September 2013 by James Plunkett Vince Cable’s announcements have allowed the Lib Dems to make the running on low pay but they still leave an opportunity to set out a tougher approach. This year’s pre-conference rumours gave unusual prominence to the minimum wage. After the consensus reached in the late 2000s, leading thinkers in all parties have begun to argue that it’s … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The politics of low pay are changing. This time around, the Tories would be wise to act first 5 July 2013 by James Plunkett It’s often hard to anticipate shifts in policy direction, even when they’re at close range. Like the steady build-up before a mudslide, arguments accumulate slowly but can then move suddenly, leaving the political landscape changed. Today, there are signs that such a shift may be due on the issue of low pay. With one in … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances Three things to bear in mind when watching Osborne today 26 June 2013 by James Plunkett Why everyone’s pretty much making it up 1. Most of today’s cuts were decided three years ago In his statement today, the Chancellor needs to find cuts in most unprotected departments of around 8-9 per cent. That number flows mainly from three things: the pace of deficit reduction; the decision to protect health, schools, international … Continued READ MORE
Labour market At Last, the Minimum Wage Debate Is Growing Up 27 March 2013 by James Plunkett This post originally appeared on James’s Huffington Post blog While low pay and in-work poverty have risen up the economic agenda in recent years, our policy debate has been stuck in a loop. Ask most Labour politicians about low pay and you can expect a well-intentioned but passive mixture of pride in the minimum wage and … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The Pay Squeeze Just Got Tighter and Longer 21 March 2013 by James Plunkett This post originally appeared on James’s Huffington Post blog As always, it’s the policy pronouncements that attract the attention on Budget day. A cheap pint is much more interesting than the minutiae of OBR figures. But the big story on Wesndesday in terms of its impact on households didn’t come from the Chancellor but from Robert … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The road to a jobs recovery is longer than it seems 12 March 2013 by James Plunkett This post originally appeared on the Huffington Post For anyone hoping to sift a nugget of gold from recent economic data, employment stats have been the place to look. In the past year, the number of people working in the UK has risen faster than at any time since 1989, a remarkable performance from an economy … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Low Pay Is Fast Becoming a Defining Challenge of Our Age 28 February 2013 by James Plunkett This post originally appeared on the Huffington Post You can tell a lot about a downturn by the image that comes to define it. From queues outside job centres in the 1970s and early 1980s to the poll tax riots that preceded the early 1990s recession, the pictures that stick in the mind have a habit … Continued READ MORE
Welfare The Childcare Announcement That Never Was 18 January 2013 by James Plunkett This blog originally appeared on the Huffington Post Uncertainty continues to cloud the government’s plans on childcare. Latest rumours suggest they may now delay any big announcement until after the budget. If government sources are to be believed, the most recent plans have been scuppered by a tag team of HMT officials and senior Lib Dems. The Treasury is … Continued READ MORE
Welfare The Coalition’s Childcare Policy Moves in Mysterious Ways 8 January 2013 by James Plunkett This post orginally appeared on The Huffingtom Post blog There may have been few details in Monday’s renewal of Coalition vows but one key policy continues to invite debate: the government’s plans for childcare. Much remains uncertain but it does now seem clear that the government hopes to use tax relief as its key way of … Continued READ MORE
Welfare On Childcare, Tax Breaks for Nannies Can’t Be the Answer 1 December 2012 by James Plunkett This post originally appeared on the Huffington Post Few political debates have made more progress in 2012 than that around childcare. In the past 12 months, all threemajor parties have come to see reform as an economic and political necessity. Although hard policy proposals are yet to emerge, it’s now clear that one yardstick for 2015 will be the … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Clegg’s Score-draw on Women’s Work 13 November 2012 by James Plunkett This post originally appeared on the Huffington Post The coalition recognised long ago it has a major problem with women. This morning’s speech from the deputy prime pinister was one of the first major attempts to address this challenge through policy. The speech, drawing heavily on the Resolution Foundation report The Missing Million, looked at how to raise female employment through … Continued READ MORE
Living standards When a growing economy still feels bad 25 October 2012 by James Plunkett This post orginally appeared on Coffeehouse David Cameron was right; the good news has kept on coming. This morning’s first estimate from the ONS puts GDP growth in the third quarter at 1.0 percent. Cue much justified squabbling over what the ‘real’ number is. A significant portion of this growth will be a one-off, post-Jubilympics bounce-back, suggesting slower … Continued READ MORE
Housing Debt and inequality conundrums 15 May 2012 by James Plunkett This post originally appeared on the OECD blog How did inequality and household debt interact in the run up to the 2008/09 financial crisis? Today, a new report byNIESR for the Resolution Foundation provides new evidence on that question for the UK. The new analysis confirms the severity of the borrowing situation of low income households in Britain before … Continued READ MORE
Labour market The fraying thread between pay and productivity 17 February 2012 by James Plunkett Do workers reap the benefits of productivity growth? Few questions are more central to the conundrum of faltering living standards. If the 20th century was a golden era for material wellbeing in Britain, that’s explained by one factor above all others: from 1900 to 2000 UK labour productivity grew roughly fourfold, translating into unprecedented growth in real … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Cameron is right to focus on quality apprenticeships 7 February 2012 by James Plunkett If there are ‘no votes in skills’, as the old dictum goes, there seem to be some in apprenticeships. Hence David Cameron’s call this morning for apprenticeships to become a ‘gold standard’ qualification ranking alongside degrees from the best universities. His goal is to rectify Britain’s shockingly poor performance on mid-level skills compared to world … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances Food and fuel prices will be key to inflation in the year ahead 17 January 2012 by James Plunkett Backed by strong discounting from retailers, RPI fell from 5.2 per cent in November to 4.8 per cent in December, while CPI fell from 4.8 per cent to 4.2 per cent, its largest one month drop since December 2008. Stressed-out-by-inflationThat of course means inflation remains at more than twice the level of its Bank of … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Women’s work – an opportunity for growth we can’t afford to pass up 12 December 2011 by James Plunkett As economic forecasts continue to head south, it’s worth pausing to ask a simple question: Where exactly do we expect future growth in living standards to come from – even once a recovery takes hold? The list of possible answers to that question isn’t long. In fact, when it comes to household income growth, there are effectively … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Are we facing an American nightmare? 21 November 2011 by James Plunkett With the Chancellor’s autumn statement due next Tuesday, we’re all talking about growth. The ECB and Bank of England now say the UK economy is set to grow at less than half the rate the OBR forecast back in March. That makes it all but certain that George Osborne will announce dramatic downward revisions to UK forecasts when he stands up … Continued READ MORE
