Productivity & industrial strategy· Pay· Economic growth Dead-end relationship? Exploring the link between productivity and workers’ living standards 16 January 2020 by Matthew Whittaker Summary The strength of the relationship between productivity growth and median pay growth – and what it means for the way in which the gains from economic growth are shared across the workforce – has been questioned in recent years, with evidence of a ‘decoupling’ of the two across a number of advanced economies. Such … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Economic growth Rewriting the rules Assessing Conservative and Labour’s new fiscal frameworks 7 November 2019 by Torsten Bell and Matthew Whittaker and Cara Pacitti and Jack Leslie Fiscal rules are technical frameworks only ever focused on by a tiny fraction of the population. But they are important for government’s running of our public finances, and for having a sense of where we are heading as a country. READ MORE
Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Political parties and elections The shape of things to come Charting the changing size and shape of the UK state 4 November 2019 by Matthew Whittaker This report marks the first in a series of pre-election pieces that focus on the fiscal backdrop to the vote. It takes a long-run view of the size and shape of government spending in the UK, and considers how things might change under the next government. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Rounding up Putting the 2019 Spending Round into context 4 September 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson and Torsten Bell and Matthew Whittaker and Adam Corlett In his September 2019 Spending Round the Chancellor rightly declared he was “turning the page” on austerity and “writing a new chapter in our public services”. But he has also ripped up his own fiscal rulebook, almost certainly breaking the fiscal ‘mandate’ in the near-term and casting significant doubt over his ability to keep debt falling as a share of GDP over the coming years. READ MORE
Productivity & industrial strategy· Pay· Economic growth Follow the money Exploring the link between UK growth and workers’ pay packets 30 August 2019 by Matthew Whittaker This briefing note unpicks the relationship between productivity and pay growth, looking at a variety of factors that influence pay growth for different groups of employees in the UK – from trends in the labour share to terms of trade movements, and from the role of employer pension contributions to the impact of changes in working patterns. READ MORE
Living standards The Living Standards Audit 2019 17 July 2019 by Adam Corlett and Stephen Clarke and Charlie McCurdy and Fahmida Rahman and Matthew Whittaker In the tenth edition of our annual Living Standards Audit, we examine both recent and longer-term trends in UK living standards. We consider how incomes have changed and for whom, and this year we dig deeper into what economic trends have driven those changes over the past 25 years. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Spring Forward or Fall Back? The questions facing the UK economy ahead of the Spring Statement 2019 4 March 2019 by Matthew Whittaker Our look ahead to the 2019 Spring Statement, focusing on what sort of public finance outlook the Chancellor might be handed and on what is happening in the economy more generally. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Welfare How to spend it: Autumn 2018 Budget response 30 October 2018 by Matthew Whittaker This paper sets out RF’s overnight response to the 2018 Autumn Budget, using HMT and OBR data and projections to consider what is going on in the public finances and what the outlook is for household living standards. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances· Welfare Tunnel vision: Autumn Budget 2018 and ‘ending austerity’ 24 October 2018 by Matthew Whittaker Our look ahead to the 2018 Autumn Budget, focusing on what sort of public finance outlook the Chancellor might be handed and on what is happening in the economy more generally. READ MORE
Economy and public finances Healthy finances? Options for funding an NHS spending increase 12 June 2018 by George Bangham and Adam Corlett and Matthew Whittaker The National Health Service turned 70 on 5 July 2018, at a time when public concerns about its future were at their highest level in 20 years. This paper looks at different approaches the government could take to deliver real increases in NHS funding over the next Parliament. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances A man for all seasons? What the Chancellor can expect in the OBR’s Spring outlook 8 March 2018 by Matthew Whittaker Consumer borrowing has been surging over recent months, raising fears that we are storing up more debt-fuelled problems for tomorrow. This note digs into the numbers and focuses on who is taking out all the credit. We consider also how the profile of the UK’s household debt will stand up to increasing interest rates in the coming years. READ MORE
Household debt· Wealth & assets· Housing An unhealthy interest? Debt distress and the consequences of raising rates 12 February 2018 by Matthew Whittaker Consumer borrowing has been surging over recent months, raising fears that we are storing up more debt-fuelled problems for tomorrow. This note digs into the numbers and focuses on who is taking out all the credit. We consider also how the profile of the UK’s household debt will stand up to increasing interest rates in the coming years. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Productivity & industrial strategy· Public spending· Economy and public finances Revised Statement: productivity, prospects and priorities ahead of the Autumn Budget 13 November 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Our look ahead to the 2017 Autumn Budget, focusing on what sort of public finance outlook the Chancellor might be handed and on what is happening in the economy more generally. READ MORE
Public spending· Economy and public finances Ending austerity? The priorities, price tags and practicalities for a government changing course on spending cuts 8 July 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Britain is seven years into a prolonged period of fiscal consolidation, in which constraints on public spending have been the central feature and are set to continue for some years to come. Following the general election there has been a significant debate about the extent to which the result – and the failure of the … Continued READ MORE
Pensions & savings· Labour market· Pay· Intergenerational Centre The pay deficit: measuring the effect of pension deficit payments on workers’ wages 22 May 2017 by Matthew Whittaker and Brian Bell Across the UK economy, the share of overall employee compensation accounted for by non-wage elements such as employer pension contributions has increased substantially since 2000. This increase was driven in no small part by increased payments by employers to plug defined benefit deficits and coincided with a marked pre-crisis slowdown in pay growth, causing speculation … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Economy and public finances· Political parties and elections The deficit the election forgot? Pre-election briefing on the main parties’ fiscal positions 11 May 2017 by Adam Corlett and Matthew Whittaker While the deficit remains in place, it is heading back to the sort of level relative to the size of the economy that past generations have been comfortable with. With the process of fiscal consolidation dominating so much of the political discourse in recent years it’s unlikely that many voters will be lamenting a dialling … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Are we nearly there yet? Spring Budget 2017 and the 15 year squeeze on family and public finances 9 March 2017 by Matthew Whittaker and Stephen Clarke and Adam Corlett and David Finch and Laura Gardiner and Kathleen Henehan and Daniel Tomlinson Resolution Foundation’s overnight briefing on the 2017 Spring Budget. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Economy drive: prospects and priorities ahead of the last Spring Budget 28 February 2017 by Matthew Whittaker Healthier-than-expected tax receipts, the absence of any immediate post-referendum slowdown in growth and measurement changes are set to lower borrowing forecasts at next week’s Budget by £29bn between 2015-16 and 2020-21. Such a revision would leave borrowing projections for the remainder of the Parliament below those expected at Autumn Statement 2016, but still well above … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Bending the rules: Autumn Statement response 24 November 2016 by Adam Corlett and David Finch and Laura Gardiner and Matthew Whittaker Our morning after briefing for Autumn Statement 2016. READ MORE
Incomes· Budgets & fiscal events· Living standards· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Welfare Under New Management: options for supporting ‘just managing’ families at the Autumn Statement 7 November 2016 by David Finch and Matthew Whittaker The new Prime Minister has been very clear in her determination to put the interests of ‘just managing’ families at the heart of her government, but she has inherited tax and benefit plans which are set to lower incomes for many in the group over the remainder of the parliament. With post-EU referendum revisions to projections for … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Tax Changing Tax: pressing reset on the UK’s tax policy 5 November 2016 by Matthew Whittaker In this note, we consider how the Chancellor might reset the UK’s tax policy in the Autumn Statement, with a particular focus on the personal allowance threshold and corporation tax. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Pressing the reset button: the public finance options facing the new Chancellor at the Autumn Statement 5 November 2016 by Matthew Whittaker In the run up to the Autumn Statement, the Chancellor has already indicated the need for a fiscal ‘reset’. While this has been over-interpreted as a hint of a radical shift in macro-economic policy, it simply represents recognition of the need to drop his predecessor’s fiscal pledges if he is to avoid making significant additional … Continued READ MORE
Brexit & trade· Economic growth· Political parties and elections The Importance of Place: explaining the characteristics underpinning the Brexit vote across different parts of the UK 15 July 2016 by Stephen Clarke and Matthew Whittaker Post-referendum analysis has highlighted the importance of demographic, economic and cultural factors on individuals’ vote. In this note, we consider the importance of place; highlighting the extent to which those same factors matter across 378 of Britain’s 380 local authorities. We test the strength of the relationship between these different factors and the vote while holding … Continued READ MORE
Low pay· Labour market· Pay· Living Wage The first 100 days: early evidence on the impact of the National Living Wage 11 July 2016 by Conor D’Arcy and Matthew Whittaker In this briefing note, we combine official data and a bespoke survey to better understand employers’ initial reaction to the announcement and implementation of the National Living Wage and their plans for the future. We also consider the implications of the Brexit vote for the future trajectory of the NLW. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Budget 2016 response 17 March 2016 by Matthew Whittaker In this note, we consider seven of the day’s key takeaways from the Chancellor’s latest Budget. READ MORE
