Economy 2030· Labour market· Cities and regions· Housing Making Greater Manchester great again What is GM’s plausible path to greater prosperity? Tuesday 19 September 2023 This event was held in Manchester. Greater Manchester has long been centre-stage in visions of a more geographically equal country – from the Northern Powerhouse to levelling up. But the rhetoric has outpaced the reality: productivity and wages across the city region remain 10 and 4 per cent below the national average. What it would … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Labour market· Cities and regions· Housing Building momentum in Birmingham and beyond What is Birmingham urban area’s plausible path to greater prosperity? Thursday 14 September 2023 This event was in Birmingham. The West Midlands has played a pivotal role in British history as a manufacturing hub, driving innovation and economic growth which led to dramatic improvements in people’s living standards. But its city region has struggled to maintain this role over recent decades, and productivity is now 11 per cent below … Continued READ MORE
Demographics· Intergenerational Centre War or peace? How the public views Britain’s generational strains – and the policy responses to them Wednesday 13 September 2023 There is overwhelming evidence that Britain’s social contract is under strain. Young people today aren’t enjoying big generational living standards improvements, and are struggling to match lifecycle milestones that previous cohorts enjoyed, like a secure job and a home that they own. These problems are widely recognised – but that doesn’t mean that solutions are … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Economy and public finances Enlightened economics Lessons from Adam Smith on the economic challenges facing modern Britain Wednesday 13 September 2023 Adam Smith was a leading political economy thinker of the Scottish enlightenment in the mid-late 18th century. But as the “Father of Capitalism” his pioneering work on free market economics has influenced politicians, philosophers and economists throughout the 19th, 20th and 21st centuries too. But modern Britain – as well as other advanced economies – … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty· Political parties and elections A living standards election? What the year ahead could mean for family - and political - fortunes Wednesday 6 September 2023 The cost of living crisis has not only dragged on longer than anyone hoped, it has evolved. As the focus has moved from energy bills to food prices, alongside rising rent and mortgage costs, the impact on different groups has changed. It will change further in the run in to a 2024 general election, with … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Low pay The Innovation Job Can new labour market institutions drive good work? Monday 4 September 2023 Nationally set minimum standards – from the minimum wage to holiday pay – make a real difference to the quality of low-paid work. But these reforms can only go so far. Many problems in the world of work are concentrated in specific sectors, from social care to logistics. And even when problems are shared – … Continued READ MORE
Pensions & savings· Wealth & assets From boom to gloom? The winners and losers from rising rates and falling wealth Monday 17 July 2023 Britain has experienced a 30-year wealth boom, driven by record low interest rates, causing unprecedented levels of intergenerational inequality. But this has now been brought to an abrupt end, with the Bank of England embarking on the tightest rate-raising cycle since the early 90s – causing mortgage costs to rise, house prices to fall and … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Living standards· Labour market· Inequality & poverty· Housing Shared prosperity What would it take to see a return to rising living standards for all? Tuesday 4 July 2023 Britain is stagnating. Productivity growth is flatlining, workers today are earning the same wages as their predecessors in 2007, and living standards growth had slowed to a crawl even before today’s cost of living crisis. So we need a clear strategy for returning to rising, and widely shared, prosperity. Against that backdrop, it is important … Continued READ MORE
Monetary policy in the face of large shocks Valedictory speech by MPC Member Silvana Tenreyro Thursday 29 June 2023 Professor Silvana Tenreyro has been an External Member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) since July 2017. In her final speech as an MPC member, she will look back on some of the key events during her tenure. In a space of less than three years, the UK economy has been subject … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Tax From quantity to quality How to have better, not just higher, taxes Wednesday 28 June 2023 Britain’s tax take has risen to a 70 year high. And while the pre-election clamour for tax cuts is growing, higher debt payments, struggling public services and tight fiscal rules mean taxes are just as likely to go up as down. But this rising quantity of tax revenue has not been matched by a rising … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Firms· Productivity & industrial strategy· Economic growth An investment nation Can Britain shift from living off its past to investing in its future? Thursday 22 June 2023 Britain is in relative decline, as productivity and wages stagnate. This reflects a decade of shocks but also a longer lasting problem – Britain has spent recent decades living off its past rather than investing in its future. In both public and private investment the UK consistently lags behind its international peers, leaving British workers … Continued READ MORE
Net zero· Economy 2030 Living in a material world How resources shape our past, present and future Monday 19 June 2023 Materials matter. They have been critical in shaping the path of human history, from the innovations we create to the relationships between nations. This has always been true from iron in the 19th Century to lithium that powers our smartphones today. But changing international dynamics – driven by shifting geopolitics, the recent energy crisis and … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Brexit & trade The UK’s trade trajectory In search of a post-Brexit trade strategy Thursday 15 June 2023 Brexit was a seismic break for the UK, not least in bringing to a close a decades long trade strategy focused on integration with European markets. Since then the Government has successfully rushed to sign as many trade agreements as possible, but these largely roll over arrangements inherited from EU membership, with little prospect of … Continued READ MORE
Net zero· Economy 2030 Running out of road? How to avoid (net) zero car taxation Thursday 1 June 2023 The UK is decarbonising its stock of cars quicker than most people expected – last year there were over a million Electric Vehicles (EVs) on our roads. This is great news for both people and the planet, as EVs are cheaper and cleaner to drive. But this transition presents challenges too – not least to … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Productivity & industrial strategy· Economic growth Shaping the next revolution How can we ensure that technological change boosts our national prosperity? Wednesday 24 May 2023 Technological innovations – from new agricultural machinery to industrialisation and the invention of the computer – have powered economic progress over the past 1,000 years. But technological leaps do not automatically lead to living standards improvements, and can instead cause economic disruption and pose threats to workers. As we stand on the precipice of a … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Cities and regions Turnaround cities How post-industrial cities around the world have transformed their economies Monday 15 May 2023 In a services-based economy like Britain, its cities should be leading its economic growth. But in fact England’s major cities outside London are actually less productive than the national average, and many have struggled to adjust to our post-industrial landscape. This is a common challenge for many cities in western economies. But while some cities … Continued READ MORE
Prices & consumption· Macroeconomic policy We need to talk about inflation What history has to teach us about surging prices Wednesday 3 May 2023 Book launch event for We Need to Talk About Inflation by Stephen King From investors and academics, to governments and central banks, almost everyone had assumed high and persistent inflation was dead and buried. But with inflation having soared to double-digits, people the world over are confronting a new economic reality of surging prices. Reflecting … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Incomes· Prices & consumption Still coping? How families are faring as the cost-of-living crisis enters its second year Thursday 27 April 2023 The UK’s cost-of-living crunch has entered its second year. While inflation should fall significantly in the coming months, the crisis is far from over. Prices are rising more slowly rather than falling. And the significant government support provided last year is being scaled back, while fast rising interest rates will affect more and more homeowners … Continued READ MORE
Labour market enforcement· Labour market Playing by the rules A new approach to enforcing workers’ rights Tuesday 25 April 2023 Debates about raising, or indeed cutting, legal protections for workers are a staple of British politics – with welcome progress including a rising minimum wage driving down low pay. But too often the reality that these rights, rates and rules mean little if they aren’t enforced is forgotten. The systems used to enforce workers’ rights … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Low pay· Labour market Good work How to renew the UK’s economic strategy and put better jobs at its heart Wednesday 19 April 2023 The minimum wage has more than halved the share of low paid workers across Britain over the past two decades. This is a huge success – but it is far from job done. While low-paid workers today earn more, they are too often trapped on short-hours, facing poor working conditions or lacking the advantages higher … Continued READ MORE
Demographics· Intergenerational Centre Making your voice heard? How different generations participate in politics Thursday 30 March 2023 Part of the ESRC funded Connecting Generations Thought Leader series. The political context in which people grow up can play a hugely influential role in how that age cohort participate in democracy. From the dominance of different political parties and prevalence of strikes and protests, to the distribution of information and ideas through social media, the … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Public spending Thinking about tomorrow Overcoming the UK’s low and volatile public investment problem Thursday 30 March 2023 The UK has been under-investing for decades. British business isn’t keen on investing, and the public sector if anything does even worse. Public investment is not only low by international standards, it’s very volatile. Politicians like to announce investment rises, but Chancellor’s also like to cut it when they need to make the fiscal arithmetic … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Cities and regions The future of the UK economy Navigating a route to a fairer and more prosperous South Yorkshire, and beyond Thursday 23 March 2023 The United Kingdom is facing a decisive decade of huge economic change, from restructuring after Brexit and the pandemic, to urgently transitioning towards a net zero future, and adapting to technological shifts amid an ageing population. But it is doing that against a backdrop of low growth and high inequality, a toxic combination that leaves … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Into calmer waters? Assessing Budget 2023 Thursday 16 March 2023 The UK has gone through four Chancellors, three Prime Ministers and entered a cost-of-living crisis in 500 days since the last Budget way back in October 2021. On 15 March, Jeremy Hunt will unveil his first Budget, hoping to signpost the UK economy’s way towards a new, calmer, phase of lower inflation and higher growth. … Continued READ MORE
Monetary policy· Economy 2030· Macroeconomic policy A cost-of-living crisis Inflation during an unprecedented terms of trade shock Wednesday 8 March 2023 Speech by MPC member Swati Dhingra Britain has been buffeted by many different economic shocks in recent decades, but the most recent is a huge terms of trade deterioration following a spike in energy prices and disruption to global supply chains in the wake of the pandemic. This has given the UK the highest inflation … Continued READ MORE
