The traditional threat from globalisation – domestic manufacturing being replaced by cheaper imports – has declined in recent decades. But Britain faces new and emerging trade exposures – from high-earning service sector jobs to cheap food in supermarkets – according to new research published today (Monday) by the Resolution Foundation. Decent exposure examines how Britain … Continued

The UK economy fell into recession in the second half of 2023, but families have experienced a far deeper living standards downturn, with GDP per capita now 4.2 per cent off its pre-cost of living crisis path – equivalent to a loss of nearly £1,500 per household – the Resolution Foundation said today. Weaker than … Continued

CPI inflation in January remained at its December level of 4.0 per cent – slightly weaker than the 4.1 per cent the Bank of England and financial markets had expected. This was despite the Ofgem price cap rising in January, which was offset by falling furniture and food prices, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). … Continued

A record number of people who are economically inactive due to ill-health mean that Britain remains the only G7 economy yet to return to pre-pandemic employment levels, but fast falling inflation means that real wages are growing at their fastest rate outside the pandemic in nearly five years, the Resolution Foundation said today (Tuesday). The … Continued

Families across Britain face a ‘triple savings challenge’ of insufficient ‘rainy day’ savings of at least £1,000, an inability to cope financially with bigger life events like family breakdown, and inadequate retirement incomes. But all three can be addressed by building on the success of auto-enrolment into pension saving to encourage more liquid saving too, … Continued

The turnout divide between richer and poorer young voters is deepening, with millennial non-graduates and non-homeowners increasingly unlikely to vote compared to their graduate and homeowning counterparts since the last general election, according to new Resolution Foundation analysis published today (Wednesday). The research examines the rising role of age in influencing people’s political preferences ahead … Continued

New Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates of the size and shape of the UK labour market show that it has a bigger workforce, with employment up 170,000 compared to previous estimates, but also a sicker one, with the number not working because of long-term sickness reaching a new record high of 2.8 million, the … Continued

The Bank of England’s latest economic outlook will bring relief to consumers and mortgagors, as forecasts for inflation and interest rates have been revised down, but not so for workers as pay growth has also been revised down – by £400 a year by 2026 – the Resolution Foundation said today (Thursday). Today, the Bank … Continued

Britain’s rise in sickness-related inactivity, and resulting fall in employment, since the start of the pandemic has played out differently across the country – with traditionally low employment areas like Glasgow continuing to record strong jobs growth, but areas with existing high levels of ill-health and disability like West Wales seeing the biggest rises in … Continued

Lower than expected inflation over the end of last year has helped to reduce debt interest costs, and in turn reduce borrowing levels – providing the Chancellor with a timely boost in the penultimate set of public sector finances data before the Budget, the Resolution Foundation said today (Tuesday). Borrowing in December was £7.8 billion … Continued

Services such as ICT, education, culture and finance accounted for a record share of Britain’s exports in late 2023 – highlighting their growing economic importance, despite politicians’ continued focus on goods. But this success is far too focused on the capital, which now accounts for almost half of all UK services exports, according to new … Continued

CPI inflation increased slightly in December to 4.0 per cent – driven by an increase in Tobacco Duty and rising air fares – though it remains below the Bank’s forecast path, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). While the reasons for the rise were UK specific, the arrival of the first bump in the lower … Continued

Total pay growth fell for the fourth consecutive month, reflecting the fact that total private sector pay has been broadly flat since August, the Resolution Foundation said today (Tuesday) in response to the latest ONS labour market data. Headline annual pay growth in the three months to November dropped to 6.6 per cent, largely reflecting … Continued

Commenting on the latest ONS GDP data, James Smith, Research Director at the Resolution Foundation, said: “The economy grew more strongly than expected between October and November, driven by a recovery in our services sector including strong black Friday retail sales and a high performing ICT sector, making it less likely Britain will fall into … Continued

Changes to the UK mortgage market and improving household balance sheets, including ‘forced saving’ during the pandemic, have helped to deliver an unprecedented £16 billion household income boost from higher interest rates, according to new research published today (Friday) by the Resolution Foundation. The latest Macroeconomic Policy Outlook examines the impact of the Bank of … Continued

A year of poor economic data ended on a high as CPI inflation fell by more than markets expected to 3.9 per cent in November – its lowest level since September 2021. But while inflation should continue to fall next year, there are likely to be bumps in the road, reminding us all that cost-of-living … Continued

Young low-paid workers were big winners in the recent Autumn Statement as reductions in the age threshold for the National Living Wage (NLW) and boosts to the National Minimum Wage’s youth rates will mean pay rises of up to 21 per cent (for 16-17 year olds) next April. But despite this progress, low pay remains … Continued

Commenting on the latest ONS GDP data, in which the economy showed no growth in the three months to October, and contracted by 0.3 per cent in October, driven by a fall in services (including services exports) and ICT in particular, James Smith, Research Director at the Resolution Foundation, said: “The poor performance on the … Continued

Pay growth has declined markedly in recent months – tracking the sharp recent fall in inflation and a looser labour market – the Resolution Foundation said today (Tuesday) in response to the latest ONS labour market data. The Foundation notes that while headline annual pay growth in the three months to October remained high – … Continued

Strong pay growth in Britain may cool next year, driven more by workers’ experiences of lower inflation than a looser labour market, according to new Resolution Foundation research published today (Tuesday). The latest Labour Market Outlook examines a key question for policy makers and workers coping with the cost of living crisis – what will … Continued

The Chancellor’s announcement in the recent Autumn Statement that the Local Housing Allowance (LHA) will be re-pegged to local rents in April 2024 will bring welcome relief to many of Britain’s poorest households, with those in cities set to see some of the largest financial gains, according to new Resolution Foundation research published today (Saturday). … Continued

Britain’s toxic combination of low growth and high inequality has left it falling behind its peers. But a new economic strategy that builds on Britain’s strengths as a services superpower, prioritises public and private investment, expands its great cities, and ensures good work in every town could help the country catch-up and close its £8,300 … Continued

The Chancellor yesterday delivered an Autumn Statement with a few big ticket pre-election giveaways, and welcome policy measures to address problems such as our tax system’s bias against working-age earnings, our benefit system’s failure to keep pace with fast-rising rents, and firms’ weak incentives to invest. But the Autumn Statement failed to end a wider … Continued

The Chancellor has spent almost all of the near £90 billion of fiscal good news handed to him by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), mainly on tax cuts well-targeted at investment and earnings. But these were funded by handing whoever wins the next election implausible plans to cut public spending, the Resolution Foundation said … Continued