The UK’s economic slowdown last year has caused Britain’s jobs recovery to falter, with its post-pandemic workforce shrinking by the equivalent by the equivalent of one million workers. But this hasn’t yet fed through into pay packets, with real wages growing at their fastest in rate in over two years, the Resolution Foundation said today … Continued

Falling pension costs and import prices have temporarily severed the link between productivity and wage growth in the UK, allowing real wages to rise without putting further pressure on inflation. But this ‘unproductive wage growth’ won’t last, according to new research published today (Monday) by the Resolution Foundation. The Foundation’s latest Macroeconomic Policy Outlook examines … Continued

Commenting on the latest ONS trade data for Q1 2024, Emily Fry, Senior Economist at the Resolution Foundation, said: “While the UK’s improving trade balance was a major contributor to strong economic growth in early 2024, the trade data is less rosy than it appears. “The improving trade balance was driven by a sharp fall in … Continued

The UK economy has bounced back from recession, with stronger-than-expected growth of 0.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2024 – the strongest of all G7 economies. This momentum will need to be maintained given Britain’s wider economic backdrop of frequent downturns and stagnation, with GDP per capita growth down 90 per cent over … Continued

Firms use flexible employment contracts – including temporary, variable- and zero-hours contracts – for a wide range of reasons, including managing customer demand and because they say staff prefer them. But there are real costs for some workers with one-in-four firms reporting using them to reduce their wage bill, according to a new Resolution Foundation … Continued

UK borrowing over the last fiscal year (2023-24) was £7.6 billion lower than last year, but £60 billion higher than the year before the pandemic and, critically, £6.6 billion higher than the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast at the Spring Budget last month, the Resolution Foundation said today (Tuesday). The higher than forecast borrowing was … Continued

Britain needs to increase investment in its power sector four-fold over the next decade to deliver the crucial next step in decarbonising the economy. But promises that electrifying our home heating and driving will lead to lower energy costs have relied on the pre-energy crisis low interest rates world returning, and we need a plan … Continued

With the UK the only G7 economy yet to return to pre-pandemic employment levels, the Prime Minister is right to make reducing long-term sickness a top economic priority. But his latest announcement is a problem statement not a plan, the Resolution Foundation said today (Friday). The Foundation notes that proposals to reform sicknotes could offer … Continued

CPI inflation fell to 3.2 per cent in March – falling below the US inflation rate (CPI for All Urban Consumers) of 3.5 per cent for the first time since March 2022 (but still above the Eurozone rate of 2.4 per cent) – bringing an end to the UK’s unwanted status as an outlier on … Continued

The UK’s post-pandemic jobs recovery has fallen further off course, as employment and payrolled jobs both fell, while working-age economic inactivity reached its highest level since 2015, the Resolution Foundation said today (Tuesday) in response to the latest ONS labour market statistics. The UK is currently the only G7 economy yet to return to its … Continued

Universal Credit (UC) is on track to be fully rolled-out to seven million families by the end of the next parliament, with working renters the main winners and those with disabilities the main losers from the reform as it faces up to new challenges like rising long-term sickness, according to new Resolution Foundation research published … Continued

Britain’s recent exceptional surge in new tenancy rent levels – up by almost a fifth over the past two years – is coming to an end, but average rents could rise by 13 per cent over the next three years, as today’s high market rates work their way through existing tenancies, says new Resolution Foundation … Continued

The introduction of the minimum wage in the UK in 1999 is the single most successful economic policy in a generation, raising the pay of the nation’s lowest paid workers by £6,000 a year compared to their earnings simply rising in line with typical wages, according to new Resolution Foundation analysis published today (Wednesday). Happy … Continued

The UK is one of many countries that considers itself to be in the midst of a housing crisis. But a comparison of housing costs, floorspace, quality and wider price levels across countries reveals that households in Britain are paying more for less, and that our housing stock offers the worst value for money of … Continued

New Households Below Average Income (HBAI) data for 2022-23, released today by the DWP, sheds fresh light on the cost of living crisis, with households across the income distribution experiencing a fall in real household incomes during this period, due to an inflation hit of 10 per cent. The share of people living in absolute … Continued

CPI inflation fell to 3.4 per cent in February, confirming the fastest 12-month fall in inflation since 1978 and bringing inflation to its lowest level since September 2021, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). This latest fall takes UK inflation within touching distance of US CPI inflation (3.2 per cent), although remains above the euro … Continued

Commenting on the latest ONS GDP figures, which saw the economy grow by 0.2 per cent in January off the back of strong retail sales, James Smith, Research Director at the Resolution Foundation, said: “Britain looks to be out of recession already, with strong retail sales helping the economy to grow in January and recent … Continued

Taxpaying pensioners did not gain anything from the Chancellor’s Budget last week, and will see their taxes go up due to Income Tax threshold freezes announced earlier in this parliament, prompting accusations that the government has neglected older generations ahead of the next election. But new Resolution Foundation analysis published today (Tuesday) reveals that pensioners … Continued

The UK labour market continued to normalise in early 2024 as vacancy levels almost returned to pre-pandemic levels, with unemployment ticking up among women but still low overall. The two less normal aspects of the labour market are headline nominal pay growth, which remains high despite a slower growth rate in the most recent data. … Continued

The likely last Budget before the General Election showed that this has been a parliament of flatlining growth, falling living standards, and notable redistribution from the old and the rich to the young and the poor, according to the Resolution Foundation’s overnight analysis of the 2024 Spring Budget. The Foundation notes that the approach taken … Continued

The Chancellor today announced another pre-election sweetener of further National Insurance rate cuts, taking total net personal tax cuts this election year to £8 billion and prioritising workers over pensioners. But he has left a sour taste for whoever wins the next election, with £19 billion of post-election tax rises and another £19 billion of … Continued

Young people are now more likely to experience a common mental disorder (CMD) than any other age group – a complete reversal compared to two decades ago when they were least likely to. And the economic consequences are greatest for those whose poor mental comes together with poor educational outcomes, with one-in-three young non-graduates with … Continued

Resolution Foundation analysis of Ofgem’s Price Cap for April-June 2024, announced this morning (Friday), and Cornwall Insight forecasts for the price cap in the second half of the year, show that household energy bills are on track to fall by 24 per cent (or £545) in real terms in 2024, compared to last year. The … Continued

Lower than expected spending offset weaker than expected tax receipts in the year to January, while significant data revisions have left overall borrowing £9.2 billion lower than the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) forecast, and given the Chancellor a timely fiscal boost ahead of his Budget next month, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). Self-assessment … Continued

Lower interest rates will slightly increase the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom for election year tax cuts, but these will be sandwiched between far bigger past and future tax rises, according to new Resolution Foundation research published today (Wednesday). The Foundation’s Spring Budget 2024 preview examines how the Office for Budget Responsibility might update its economic and … Continued