The introduction of the minimum wage in the UK in 1999 is the single most successful economic policy in a generation, raising the pay of the nation’s lowest paid workers by £6,000 a year compared to their earnings simply rising in line with typical wages, according to new Resolution Foundation analysis published today (Wednesday). Happy … Continued

The UK is one of many countries that considers itself to be in the midst of a housing crisis. But a comparison of housing costs, floorspace, quality and wider price levels across countries reveals that households in Britain are paying more for less, and that our housing stock offers the worst value for money of … Continued

New Households Below Average Income (HBAI) data for 2022-23, released today by the DWP, sheds fresh light on the cost of living crisis, with households across the income distribution experiencing a fall in real household incomes during this period, due to an inflation hit of 10 per cent. The share of people living in absolute … Continued

CPI inflation fell to 3.4 per cent in February, confirming the fastest 12-month fall in inflation since 1978 and bringing inflation to its lowest level since September 2021, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). This latest fall takes UK inflation within touching distance of US CPI inflation (3.2 per cent), although remains above the euro … Continued

Commenting on the latest ONS GDP figures, which saw the economy grow by 0.2 per cent in January off the back of strong retail sales, James Smith, Research Director at the Resolution Foundation, said: “Britain looks to be out of recession already, with strong retail sales helping the economy to grow in January and recent … Continued

Taxpaying pensioners did not gain anything from the Chancellor’s Budget last week, and will see their taxes go up due to Income Tax threshold freezes announced earlier in this parliament, prompting accusations that the government has neglected older generations ahead of the next election. But new Resolution Foundation analysis published today (Tuesday) reveals that pensioners … Continued

The UK labour market continued to normalise in early 2024 as vacancy levels almost returned to pre-pandemic levels, with unemployment ticking up among women but still low overall. The two less normal aspects of the labour market are headline nominal pay growth, which remains high despite a slower growth rate in the most recent data. … Continued

The likely last Budget before the General Election showed that this has been a parliament of flatlining growth, falling living standards, and notable redistribution from the old and the rich to the young and the poor, according to the Resolution Foundation’s overnight analysis of the 2024 Spring Budget. The Foundation notes that the approach taken … Continued

The Chancellor today announced another pre-election sweetener of further National Insurance rate cuts, taking total net personal tax cuts this election year to £8 billion and prioritising workers over pensioners. But he has left a sour taste for whoever wins the next election, with £19 billion of post-election tax rises and another £19 billion of … Continued

Young people are now more likely to experience a common mental disorder (CMD) than any other age group – a complete reversal compared to two decades ago when they were least likely to. And the economic consequences are greatest for those whose poor mental comes together with poor educational outcomes, with one-in-three young non-graduates with … Continued

Resolution Foundation analysis of Ofgem’s Price Cap for April-June 2024, announced this morning (Friday), and Cornwall Insight forecasts for the price cap in the second half of the year, show that household energy bills are on track to fall by 24 per cent (or £545) in real terms in 2024, compared to last year. The … Continued

Lower than expected spending offset weaker than expected tax receipts in the year to January, while significant data revisions have left overall borrowing £9.2 billion lower than the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) forecast, and given the Chancellor a timely fiscal boost ahead of his Budget next month, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). Self-assessment … Continued

Lower interest rates will slightly increase the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom for election year tax cuts, but these will be sandwiched between far bigger past and future tax rises, according to new Resolution Foundation research published today (Wednesday). The Foundation’s Spring Budget 2024 preview examines how the Office for Budget Responsibility might update its economic and … Continued

The traditional threat from globalisation – domestic manufacturing being replaced by cheaper imports – has declined in recent decades. But Britain faces new and emerging trade exposures – from high-earning service sector jobs to cheap food in supermarkets – according to new research published today (Monday) by the Resolution Foundation. Decent exposure examines how Britain … Continued

The UK economy fell into recession in the second half of 2023, but families have experienced a far deeper living standards downturn, with GDP per capita now 4.2 per cent off its pre-cost of living crisis path – equivalent to a loss of nearly £1,500 per household – the Resolution Foundation said today. Weaker than … Continued

CPI inflation in January remained at its December level of 4.0 per cent – slightly weaker than the 4.1 per cent the Bank of England and financial markets had expected. This was despite the Ofgem price cap rising in January, which was offset by falling furniture and food prices, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). … Continued

A record number of people who are economically inactive due to ill-health mean that Britain remains the only G7 economy yet to return to pre-pandemic employment levels, but fast falling inflation means that real wages are growing at their fastest rate outside the pandemic in nearly five years, the Resolution Foundation said today (Tuesday). The … Continued

Families across Britain face a ‘triple savings challenge’ of insufficient ‘rainy day’ savings of at least £1,000, an inability to cope financially with bigger life events like family breakdown, and inadequate retirement incomes. But all three can be addressed by building on the success of auto-enrolment into pension saving to encourage more liquid saving too, … Continued

The turnout divide between richer and poorer young voters is deepening, with millennial non-graduates and non-homeowners increasingly unlikely to vote compared to their graduate and homeowning counterparts since the last general election, according to new Resolution Foundation analysis published today (Wednesday). The research examines the rising role of age in influencing people’s political preferences ahead … Continued

New Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates of the size and shape of the UK labour market show that it has a bigger workforce, with employment up 170,000 compared to previous estimates, but also a sicker one, with the number not working because of long-term sickness reaching a new record high of 2.8 million, the … Continued

The Bank of England’s latest economic outlook will bring relief to consumers and mortgagors, as forecasts for inflation and interest rates have been revised down, but not so for workers as pay growth has also been revised down – by £400 a year by 2026 – the Resolution Foundation said today (Thursday). Today, the Bank … Continued

Britain’s rise in sickness-related inactivity, and resulting fall in employment, since the start of the pandemic has played out differently across the country – with traditionally low employment areas like Glasgow continuing to record strong jobs growth, but areas with existing high levels of ill-health and disability like West Wales seeing the biggest rises in … Continued

Lower than expected inflation over the end of last year has helped to reduce debt interest costs, and in turn reduce borrowing levels – providing the Chancellor with a timely boost in the penultimate set of public sector finances data before the Budget, the Resolution Foundation said today (Tuesday). Borrowing in December was £7.8 billion … Continued

Services such as ICT, education, culture and finance accounted for a record share of Britain’s exports in late 2023 – highlighting their growing economic importance, despite politicians’ continued focus on goods. But this success is far too focused on the capital, which now accounts for almost half of all UK services exports, according to new … Continued

CPI inflation increased slightly in December to 4.0 per cent – driven by an increase in Tobacco Duty and rising air fares – though it remains below the Bank’s forecast path, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). While the reasons for the rise were UK specific, the arrival of the first bump in the lower … Continued