CPI inflation has fallen back to the Bank of England’s target of 2 per cent for the first time since July 2021 – a welcome return to normality – but worries about the legacy of high prices and stubborn underlying inflation remain, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). The biggest downward contribution to the fall … Continued

A welcome new political consensus is emerging on housing, with the Conservative and Labour manifestos both combining support for first-time buyers with stretching housebuilding targets. But the lack of cash for affordable housing will make these targets hard to hit, according to new Resolution Foundation research published today (Wednesday). Home truths – the latest Resolution … Continued

The Labour Party is proposing the biggest shake-up of the workplace in a generation, with the laudable aim of boosting the quality of work, which will demand careful consultation and implementation given the scale of change proposed. This boldness contrasts with a politically cautious approach to the public finances, which means a future Labour Chancellor … Continued

Welfare spending is set to increase by over £20 billion a year by the end of the next parliament, driven almost entirely by rising spending on pensioners and those with a health condition. But reductions in support for renters will increase the risk of homelessness, while limits and caps on support is set to push … Continued

The latest GDP data serves a reminder to whoever wins the next election that their central goal must be to end Britain’s economic stagnation, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). The economy did not grow in April, halting the momentum of 0.6 per cent growth in Q1 2024. Growth in the services sector slowed to … Continued

Tax changes pledged in the Conservative Party manifesto today (Tuesday) would mean a typical employee seeing their personal tax bill fall by £170 in 2028-29. But these pledges rely on making £12 billion of welfare cuts that recent history suggests will not be achievable over the next Parliament. This, along with £21 billion of cuts … Continued

The UK labour market continues to cool, with the employment rate only just above its mid-pandemic low point, suggesting that kickstarting jobs growth will be a major task for the next government, the Resolution Foundation said today (Tuesday) in response to the latest ONS labour market statistics. The latest data showed widespread signs of cooling, … Continued

The UK’s middle-of-the-pack record on economic growth since 2010 has been flattered by the population growing by six million people. But Britain will need to turnaround its dire productivity record and leverage its services strengths if it wants raise growth and boost living standards in the 2020s, according to new research published today (Sunday) by … Continued

While the main parties trade blows over possible secret tax bombshells, far bigger tax rises are hiding in plain sight, with £23 billion a year of post-election tax rises – equivalent to around £800 per household – having already been announced, and neither party committed to reversing them, according to new research published today (Saturday) … Continued

The narrow focus of the election campaign on relatively small spending pledges by the main political parties risks missing bigger economic uncertainties that the next government may need to confront, including a possible £12 billion black hole in the public finances from a productivity downgrade, higher market interest rates and infected-blood compensation, according to new … Continued

Summer energy bills will fall to their lowest level since the beginning of 2022 as a result of the latest Ofgem price cap for July to September 2024 falling to £1,568. But the legacy of a 60 per cent rise in average energy bills in 2024 compared with three years ago still casts a long … Continued

CPI inflation has returned to ‘normal’ levels, falling to 2.3 per cent in April 2024 – down from 3.2 per cent in March, and the closest to the Bank of England’s target of 2 per cent since July 2021 – raising hopes this is the end of the UK’s inflation surge, but services inflation remains … Continued

Official data next Wednesday looks set to show inflation returning to close to the two per cent target, drawing a line under a three-year inflation spike that has left British households spending less and saving more, according to new Resolution Foundation research published today (Friday). With CPI inflation for April set to fall within touching … Continued

The UK’s economic slowdown last year has caused Britain’s jobs recovery to falter, with its post-pandemic workforce shrinking by the equivalent by the equivalent of one million workers. But this hasn’t yet fed through into pay packets, with real wages growing at their fastest in rate in over two years, the Resolution Foundation said today … Continued

Falling pension costs and import prices have temporarily severed the link between productivity and wage growth in the UK, allowing real wages to rise without putting further pressure on inflation. But this ‘unproductive wage growth’ won’t last, according to new research published today (Monday) by the Resolution Foundation. The Foundation’s latest Macroeconomic Policy Outlook examines … Continued

Commenting on the latest ONS trade data for Q1 2024, Emily Fry, Senior Economist at the Resolution Foundation, said: “While the UK’s improving trade balance was a major contributor to strong economic growth in early 2024, the trade data is less rosy than it appears. “The improving trade balance was driven by a sharp fall in … Continued

The UK economy has bounced back from recession, with stronger-than-expected growth of 0.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2024 – the strongest of all G7 economies. This momentum will need to be maintained given Britain’s wider economic backdrop of frequent downturns and stagnation, with GDP per capita growth down 90 per cent over … Continued

Firms use flexible employment contracts – including temporary, variable- and zero-hours contracts – for a wide range of reasons, including managing customer demand and because they say staff prefer them. But there are real costs for some workers with one-in-four firms reporting using them to reduce their wage bill, according to a new Resolution Foundation … Continued

UK borrowing over the last fiscal year (2023-24) was £7.6 billion lower than last year, but £60 billion higher than the year before the pandemic and, critically, £6.6 billion higher than the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast at the Spring Budget last month, the Resolution Foundation said today (Tuesday). The higher than forecast borrowing was … Continued

Britain needs to increase investment in its power sector four-fold over the next decade to deliver the crucial next step in decarbonising the economy. But promises that electrifying our home heating and driving will lead to lower energy costs have relied on the pre-energy crisis low interest rates world returning, and we need a plan … Continued

With the UK the only G7 economy yet to return to pre-pandemic employment levels, the Prime Minister is right to make reducing long-term sickness a top economic priority. But his latest announcement is a problem statement not a plan, the Resolution Foundation said today (Friday). The Foundation notes that proposals to reform sicknotes could offer … Continued

CPI inflation fell to 3.2 per cent in March – falling below the US inflation rate (CPI for All Urban Consumers) of 3.5 per cent for the first time since March 2022 (but still above the Eurozone rate of 2.4 per cent) – bringing an end to the UK’s unwanted status as an outlier on … Continued

The UK’s post-pandemic jobs recovery has fallen further off course, as employment and payrolled jobs both fell, while working-age economic inactivity reached its highest level since 2015, the Resolution Foundation said today (Tuesday) in response to the latest ONS labour market statistics. The UK is currently the only G7 economy yet to return to its … Continued

Universal Credit (UC) is on track to be fully rolled-out to seven million families by the end of the next parliament, with working renters the main winners and those with disabilities the main losers from the reform as it faces up to new challenges like rising long-term sickness, according to new Resolution Foundation research published … Continued

Britain’s recent exceptional surge in new tenancy rent levels – up by almost a fifth over the past two years – is coming to an end, but average rents could rise by 13 per cent over the next three years, as today’s high market rates work their way through existing tenancies, says new Resolution Foundation … Continued