Pay growth is weakening as the labour market continues to cool. But falling inflation means that workers still received a welcome real-terms income boost this summer, while pensioners will get one next spring too, as today’s earnings data is set to drive a £460 a year increase in the full rate of the new State … Continued

Reforms to Inheritance Tax (IHT), Capital Gains Tax (CGT) and employer National Insurance (NI) could raise over £20 billion a year, and still pass a ’triple tax test’ of improving tax efficiency, ensuring that tax rises fall on those with the broadest shoulders and not break manifesto commitments, according to new Resolution Foundation research published … Continued

Low-paid workers are most likely to lose their jobs during downturns, be employed on a zero-hours contract and miss out on sick pay if they fall ill, so should gain most from the Government’s proposed shake-up of Britain’s workplaces. But the reforms will require careful implementation to ensure that they make a real difference to … Continued

Real median household incomes are projected to grow by a healthy 3 per cent this year. But on current economic forecasts and policy assumptions, this recovery is set to peter out, with incomes forecast to grow by just 2 per cent in total over the next five years, highlighting why the Government needs to beat … Continued

Higher-than-expected spending and somewhat weaker receipts have left government borrowing £4.7 billion higher than expected by the OBR, just four months into the 2024-25 financial year, underlining the difficult choices facing the Government at the Autumn Budget, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). The latest ONS data showed that borrowing was £3.1 billion in July … Continued

The number of children aged under 16 who have a disability has increased by almost half a million over the past decade, and disability is most prevalent among older children. But around one-in-four who claim disability benefits then stop as they approach adulthood, causing a major income shock at a critical stage of their lives, … Continued

The UK economy has continued to bounce back from last year’s recession in 2024 with the fastest growth of any G7 economy in the first six months of the year. But its record on GDP-per-capita, which matters more for living standards is far less impressive, the Resolution Foundation said today (Thursday) in response to the … Continued

The rise in CPI inflation last month was less than both the Bank of England and markets were expecting. Both are instead more likely to focus on the sharp fall in services inflation, which shows that domestic price pressures are easing, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). Headline CPI rose for the first time since … Continued

Real pay growth is slowing amid further signs that the labour market is cooling, while new Resolution Foundation analysis shows that while official data is under-estimating the UK’s real level of employment and blind-siding policy makers in the process, it said today (Tuesday). The latest ONS data shows that real average weekly earnings growth has … Continued

England now has 13 million more bedrooms than it did in the 1990s – with more than one-in-five homes now containing four or more bedrooms – but this has not been enough to bring down overcrowding according to new Resolution Foundation research published today (Wednesday). The Foundation’s latest Housing Outlook examines how the number and … Continued

Progress has been made in narrowing some geographic economic gaps, but the same areas have tended to either lag behind or prosper that did so thirty years ago, and spatial disparities in child poverty have widened since 2014-15 – according to new Resolution Foundation analysis published today (Tuesday). The report, Uneven ground, uses a range … Continued

Commenting on the Government’s announced budget for the 6th Allocation round of the Contracts for Difference scheme, Jonny Marshall, Senior Economist at the Resolution Foundation, said: “The failure of the last renewable energy auction has forced ministers to offer higher prices in the next one. While this is a necessary sticking plaster, future auctions should … Continued

Cara Pacitti, Senior Economist at the Resolution Foundation, said: “Bolstering mandatory housing targets for local authorities is a welcome step that should go some way to helping the Government meet its ambitious target of 1.5 million new homes over the Parliament. “However, planning reform alone is unlikely to deliver all the affordable homes we so … Continued

The Government has chosen a steady-as-she-goes one-year holding position for the minimum wage in 2025, with the adult rate (the ‘National Living Wage’) likely to rise in line with average earnings, while workers under 21 may see faster pay rises as the age-specific minimum wage rate for 18-20 year olds is set to converge with … Continued

The Chancellor this afternoon unveiled a £35 billion laundry list of spending pressures for 2024-25 – more than enough to wipe out existing headroom against getting debt falling in five years’ time – leaving her tough choices for the Autumn Budget if she is to increase growth and bring down debt, the Resolution Foundation said … Continued

Higher spending has left government borrowing £3.2 billion higher than the OBR’s last forecast three months into the new financial year, highlighting the scale of the fiscal challenge facing the new Chancellor ahead of her first Budget this Autumn, the Resolution Foundation said today (Friday). The latest ONS data showed that borrowing was £14.5 billion … Continued

Real wages are growing at their fastest rate outside of the pandemic in over a decade. This is welcome news for workers, but less so for monetary policy makers looking for signs of inflationary pressures, the Resolution Foundation said today (Thursday). The latest ONS labour market statistics show that wage growth has been resilient amid … Continued

Commenting on the Climate Change Committee’s latest UK Progress Report, Jonny Marshall, Senior Economist at the Resolution Foundation, said: “As well as setting out why the new government needs to be massively ramp up progress on net zero, this report sets out clear priorities on how to do this. “Lowering the cost of electricity will … Continued

 Boosting economic growth rightly lies at the heart of the new Government’s legislative agenda, with at least a dozen of the 40 Bills announced in the King’s Speech centred around that welcome objective. But bold ambition must be matched with careful implementation if the Government is to deliver its economic reform agenda successfully, the Resolution … Continued

CPI inflation remained at 2 per cent in the 12 months to June 2024 – but there were some worrying indications that key measures of domestic inflation remained stubbornly high, denting hopes that the Bank of England might cut interest rates in the near term, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). This steady rate of … Continued

Around 38 per cent of all large families (with at least three children) were affected by the two-child limit on benefit support in April 2024, and the policy is set to push the majority of large families below the poverty line by the end of the parliament, the Resolution Foundation said today (Thursday) in response … Continued

Real per capita household disposable incomes were lower in early 2024 than they were back in late 2019, with growth so far in this parliament weaker than all but two parliaments since 1910, the Resolution Foundation said today (Friday) in response to the latest ONS National Accounts data. The Foundation notes that real per capita … Continued

Repeated economic shocks and sluggish growth in between has resulted in typical real non-pensioner household disposable incomes growing by 0.5 per cent a year on average – or just £140 a year – in the 14 years since 2010, with poorer households experiencing stronger income growth than richer families over this period, according to new … Continued

The labour market backdrop to the election is a prolonged pay squeeze that has left real average wages today just £16 a week higher than in 2010, a job market struggling to recreate the 2010s boom, and the main parties taking very different approach to the world of work, according to new Resolution Foundation research … Continued

Addressing rising incapacity and disability benefit spending will be a key task for whoever wins the next election. But with the increase driven by Britain ageing, becoming less healthy and experiencing more disability, politicians will need to focus on the underlying causes of a rising caseload, not just on restricting the eligibility and generosity of … Continued