Pay growth ‘normal rather than exceptional’ once end of furlough boost is accounted for

A tight labour market has driven underlying nominal wage growth back up, but not beyond, pre-pandemic levels according to new Resolution Foundation research published today (Saturday) that highlights the role of ending furlough in boosting headline pay growth figures. Labour Market Outlook Q1 2022 examines how strong nominal wage growth statistics should be interpreted. Despite … Continued

2.5 million English households are set to fall into ‘fuel stress’ from today, and a further 2.5 million could follow them in October

The number of English households in ‘fuel stress’ will double from 2.5 to 5 million as a result of the price cap rising from today (Friday), with another 2.5 million households at risk in October if the price cap rises again to £2,500, according to new Resolution Foundation briefing. Stressed Out shows that low-income households … Continued

Emergency support helped to protect incomes and reduce poverty during the first year of the pandemic

The Chancellor’s emergency Covid support helped to protect household incomes and reduced both absolute and relative poverty during the first 12 months of the pandemic, the Resolution Foundation said today (Thursday) in the response to the DWP’s latest Households Below Average Income (HBAI) statistics for the financial year 2020-21. The latest HBAI data, which covers … Continued

Chancellor prioritises his tax cutting credentials over low-and-middle income households with £2 in every £3 of new support going to the top half

Income tax cut in 2024 will only see those earning over £49,000 paying less tax

In the face of the tightest income squeeze on record, the Chancellor has provided a significant but poorly targeted package of support, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday) in response to the Spring Statement 2022. Rising inflation is forecast to make the year ahead very difficult for family finances. Real household income per person is … Continued

Fast improving public finances provide backdrop to Chancellor Spring Statement

Commenting on the latest ONS public sector finances for February published this morning, James Smith, Research Director at the Resolution Foundation, said: “The Chancellor will approach the UK’s latest crisis – the tightest income squeeze in generations, exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine – with the public finances in better shape than expected, increasing … Continued

Higher benefits uprating will deliver four times more support to low-to-middle-income households than scrapping the rise in National Insurance contributions

Uprating benefits by a further five percentage points so that they keep pace with inflation over the coming year would be the most effective way to support families hardest hit by Britain’s cost of living crisis, delivering four times more support to the bottom half of the income distribution per pound spent than scrapping the … Continued

Unemployment nears record low but Britain’s pay squeeze deepens

A tight labour market has seen unemployment fall close to a record low, but surging inflation means that Britain’s ongoing real pay squeeze is getting deeper, particularly for low earners, the Resolution Foundation said today (Tuesday) in response to the latest ONS labour market statistics. The latest ONS data depict the benefits of a tight … Continued

Prolonged conflict in Ukraine could see a second inflation spike this autumn, reaching over ten per cent for poorest households

Rising food and energy prices risk driving a second inflation spike this autumn that could reach over ten per cent for poorer households – significantly higher than the peak for richer households – requiring the Chancellor to focus support in his upcoming Spring Statement on low-and-middle-income families hardest hit by the cost of living crisis, … Continued

Britain faces the biggest income squeeze in generations as Ukraine conflict pushes inflation towards 40-year highs

The conflict in Ukraine is forecast to further push up energy prices and wider inflation (to over 8 per cent this Spring), causing typical household incomes across Britain to fall by 4 per cent in the coming financial year (2022-23), the sharpest fall since the mid-1970s, according to the Resolution Foundation’s annual Living Standards Outlook … Continued

Strong labour market drives taxes up, outweighing debt interest hit to the public finances from higher inflation 

The UK’s strong, Omicron-defying labour market recovery brought in higher-than-expected tax revenues and healthier public finances ahead of the Chancellor’s Spring Statement next month, the Resolution Foundation said today (Tuesday) in response to the latest ONS data. Strong receipts – including higher than expected income taxes from self-assessment and PAYE – were £26.7 billion higher … Continued

Migration has changed the size and shape of the UK’s workforce but economic impact of new migration regime is overdone by opponents and supporters

Migration has altered the size and shape of the UK labour market in recent decades, but the move to a more restrictive regime since leaving the European Union won’t drive the ‘high wage‘ economy that the Prime Minister has claimed it will, according to new Resolution Foundation research published today (Thursday). Under new management – … Continued

Fuel stress set to double to five million families in April as Chancellor opts for universalism over targeted support for low-income families at heart of cost of living crisis

The Government’s Energy Rebate Plan, which provides almost universal support with energy bills, rather than targeted support for low-income families, will reduce but far from end the rise in fuel stress this April as a result of the energy price cap rising by £693, according to the Resolution Foundation. The Foundation’s analysis shows that – … Continued

We now know what levelling up is – George Osborne plus New Labour

Commenting on the Government’s Levelling Up White Paper published today (Wednesday), Torsten Bell, Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation, said:  “We now know what levelling up is – George Osborne plus New Labour. The White Paper is all about combining the devolution of the former Conservative Chancellor, with the bigger and more activist state focused … Continued

Young people have returned to work rapidly – but many have returned to insecure jobs and 50,000 young men have dropped out altogether

Young people have returned to work rapidly, with unemployment now lower than pre-pandemic levels, but problems persist, with one-in-three 18-34-year-olds returning to atypical, often insecure work, and the number of economically inactive young men increasing by almost 50,000 since last spring, according to new research published today (Monday 31st) by the Resolution Foundation. Leaving lockdown, … Continued

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