The UK economy shrank by 0.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2022, setting Britain on course for the quickest return to recession since 1975 and offering sobering backdrop to the Autumn Statement next week, the Resolution Foundation said today (Friday). While a smaller fall than markets expected, the latest contraction was widespread, with … Continued

Fears about robots taking people’s jobs are overplayed, as their negative impacts on some people’s pay and jobs have been offset by gains elsewhere, and the real fear to overcome should be Britain’s lack of productivity-enhancing robots, software, AI and other technologies, according to new Resolution Foundation and LSE research published today (Thursday). Adopt, adapt … Continued

Recent first-time buyers will be hit hard by surging interest rates, with their lifetime interest costs more than doubling over the past five years and their total lifetime costs reaching record highs, although coming house price falls will offer some respite to the next generation of homeowners, according to new Resolution Foundation analysis. With the … Continued

The Bank of England has forecast a prolonged recession and a deep income squeeze next year, as it scaled back expectations of future interest rate rises despite raising interest rates by 75 basis points to 3 per cent today (Thursday), the Resolution Foundation said. The Monetary Policy Committee voted to raise Bank Rate by 75 … Continued

A deteriorating economic outlook and the legacy of Trussonomics has left Rishi Sunak’s Government on course to announce a fiscal tightening of at least £40 billion which is likely to require tax rises, not just spending cuts, according to new analysis published today (Tuesday) by the Resolution Foundation ahead of the Autumn Statement on 17th … Continued

CPI inflation increased by 10.1 per cent in September – driven by surging food prices – which should prompt a significant increase in benefits next April that will help to support families through the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). The Foundation notes that inflation in September was driven by rising food … Continued

The new Chancellor has reversed 60 per cent of the mini-Budget’s tax cuts and committed to scale back energy bill support next year in order to reduce the pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates, and on the Treasury to cut public spending, the Resolution Foundation said today (Monday). The Foundation notes … Continued

Over five million families are set to see their annual mortgage payments rise by an average of £5,100 between now and the end of 2024 – with £1,200 of that reflecting higher expectations of interest rate rises since the ‘mini-budget’ – according to new analysis published today (Saturday) by the Resolution Foundation. With the UK’s … Continued

Today’s dramatic mini-Budget reversal, in which the Prime Minister sacked her Chancellor and re-instated the previous Chancellor’s plans to increase corporation tax from 19 to 25 per cent, means that 45 per cent of the tax cuts announced on 27 September have now been abandoned, the Resolution Foundation said today (Friday). However, the combination of … Continued

Uprating benefits in line with earnings next year could save £3 billion but would set the typical incomes of the poorest fifth of working-age families back to levels not seen since 2000-01, according to new analysis published today (Thursday) by the Resolution Foundation. With the Government considering various ways of reducing the deficit in the … Continued

A tight labour market has seen pay growth strengthen and unemployment fall to a near-50-year-low. But the workforce continues to shrink, driven by economic inactivity due to long-term ill-health rising to a record 2.49 million, highlighting the dilemma facing policy makers, the Resolution Foundation said today (Tuesday) in response to the latest ONS labour market … Continued

A huge increase in the number of working-age people with a disability (up 2.3 million over the past decade), coupled with rising employment rates among disabled people, mean that the share of workers with a disability has grown by 50 per cent since 2013 to around one-in-seven of workers, according to new Resolution Foundation research … Continued

The richest 5 per cent of households still stand to gain £3,500 on average next year from the tax cuts announced in the Chancellor’s recent Fiscal Statement – almost 40 times as much as the average £90 cash gain for the poorest fifth of households – despite the decision to scrap the abolition of the … Continued

The Government’s Energy Price Guarantee and £400 Energy Bill Support Scheme discount means that the average household will see annual bills increase by just 7 per cent – from £1,971 in April to £2,100 – when the energy price cap rises today. But even with hugely welcome intervention on this scale, millions of families across … Continued

The Chancellor’s fiscal statement last week and the severe market fall-out from it – including a plunging pound, rising interest rates and emergency intervention from the Bank of England – will force him to make tough policy choices, including big spending cuts, in his promised Medium-Term Fiscal Plan due in less than eight weeks’ time, … Continued

The market’s reaction to last Friday’s fiscal statement will have a material impact on household incomes; in the short-term through higher inflation; in the medium-term through higher mortgage payments; and, in the long term as higher borrowing exacerbates tax and spending trade-offs, the Resolution Foundation said today (Monday). The size of the Government’s fiscal package … Continued

The Chancellor’s huge package of personal tax cuts confirmed yesterday will disproportionately benefit London and the South East – with households in these regions standing to gain to three times as much on average (£1,600) as those living in Wales, the North East and Yorkshire (£500) next year – according to the Resolution Foundation’s overnight … Continued

The Chancellor’s £45 billion package of tax cuts announced today, the largest in a single fiscal event since Anthony Barber’s ill-fated 1972 Budget, will boost growth in the short-term but raise interest rates and see an additional £411 billion of borrowing over five years, the Resolution Foundation said in response to today’s fiscal statement. The … Continued

Commenting on the Chancellor’s announcement this afternoon (Thursday) that the Government will reverse the recent 1.25 per cent increase in the National Insurance contribution (NICs) rate from 6 November this year, Karl Handscomb, Senior Economist at the Resolution Foundation, said: “While raising National Insurance was a flawed way to fund social care provision that would … Continued

The Government’s Energy Bill Relief Scheme strikes the right balance of tackling businesses’ soaring bills, while avoiding offering support for businesses who don’t need it, which would have been the case had grants been offered instead of reductions in the price of energy targeted at those firms exposed to recent cost surges, the Resolution Foundation … Continued

Private renters’ average floor space per person in England has fallen by 16 per cent over the past 20 years – floorspace collectively equivalent to the size of Nottingham – while rents as a share of income have remained stubbornly high, according to new Resolution Foundation research published today (Saturday). The Foundation’s latest Housing Outlook … Continued

Britain’s inflation surge eased in August – falling for the first time since September 2021 – but it remains higher for low-income households, and will remain elevated for everyone well into next year, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday) in response to the latest ONS prices data. CPI inflation fell from 10.1 per cent to … Continued

Britain recorded its sharpest real pay fall since 1977 this summer. But with nominal pay growth strengthening and the Energy Price Guarantee set to reduce inflation by around four percentage points relative to what it might otherwise have been, the depth of Britain’s pay squeeze may bottom out this autumn, the Resolution Foundation said today … Continued

Liz Truss first major act as Prime Minister has been to set out an energy support package to hugely reduce the scale of the living standards catastrophe this winter by covering three-quarters of the rise in energy bills, but households will still get poorer over the course of the parliament, the Resolution Foundation said today … Continued

Real household disposable incomes are on course to fall by 10 per cent over this year and next – the deepest living standards squeeze in a century – while the number of people living in absolute poverty is set to rise by three million, highlighting the scale of the task facing the new Prime Minister … Continued