An Open Memo to the Next Government: improving outcomes for low earners

NEWS RELEASE

Strictly embargoed: 00:01 Monday 22 March 2010

POLLING SHOWS LOW EARNERS STARTING TO RETURN TO THE LABOUR FOLD

The Resolution Foundation, the think tank working for low earners1, is today publishing some exclusive polling2 that shows the current voting intentions of this group. The polling shows a return of support to Labour, away from the Liberal Democrats and minority parties. However the strong Tory support among low earners appears to be holding up. The Foundation has found that:

1. There had been significant fluctuation in the voting intentions of low earners between February and March, especially when compared to other groups.
2. Low earners’ votes are coalescing around mainstream parties, reversing earlier voting patterns in this group for minority parties.
3. Labour has benefited the most from this change, but the Conservative vote has held among low earners. The Liberal Democrats have lost out.

As there are 14 million low earners in the UK, their votes will play an important part in determining the outcome of many marginal seats.

The polling shows that low earners votes are still up for grabs. Comparing polling carried out in February and March, low earners’ voting intentions fluctuated by up to 11 percentage points. In comparison, the voting intentions of poorer people (those living on a household income of less than £11, 500) and better off people (those with a household income above the UK median of £27,000) stayed broadly the same within the margin of error (3%) of two percentage points.

Labour has benefitted most from these changing voting intentions, but the Conservative vote also held:

• The vote for Labour increased in the low earner group by 11 percentage points. This can be accounted for by a fall in the number of low earners saying they would vote for minority parties (5 percentage points) and a drop in the number of low earners saying they would vote for the Liberal Democrats (8 percentage points)

• The Conservative vote also slightly increased from 38% to 40%, suggesting that there has been a shift in voting intentions towards the two main parties.

These patterns could reflect voter apprehension about a hung parliament, with widespread misunderstanding about how coalition government works leading to people being wary of this outcome.

As well as conducting national polling, the Resolution Foundation has been holding low earner ‘select committees’ in order to understand low earners voting intentions in the lead up to the general election. We classify ‘low earners’ as those who are in work, earning more than £11,500 but less than the UK median income of £27,500. The average low earner household income is £15,800.

At these select committees, low earners tell us that they feel alienated and ignored by politicians. Most feel they have lost out in recent years, squeezed on the one hand by people living on benefits who are perceived to have an easier life; and on the other by wealthier households who have enjoyed a strong economy without being hit as hard by the downsides of higher inflation and more expensive food, fuel and housing.

These are families who may not be the poorest in society, and they are not in crisis. Nevertheless their economic independence is fragile and they are living at the very edge of their means. For example, at the end of 2009, half a million low earner households said they were having difficulty keeping up with bills and credit commitments because of a fall in their income associated with reduced working hours.

Historically the group have tended to be more likely than the population in general not to vote at all, or to vote for minority parties. However this trend appears to be changing as the General Election approaches.

In this context, the Resolution Foundation has today published an open policy memorandum for the next government, showing what can be done to improve outcomes for low earners. This has been sent to the election co-ordinators of all three major political parties. This memo draws upon the Foundation’s Low Earners’ Audit and sets out five priorities which will improve outcomes for low earners:

• A recovery that is fair for all
• A focus on building financial health
• A housing policy that is realistic for all
• An inclusive industrial strategy for the 21st century
• A welfare system that reflects modern life

Across these priorities, the twin messages of independence and fairness will need to be reflected at every opportunity to appeal to low earners and win their votes.

Sophia Parker, Acting Director of the Resolution Foundation, said:

“Our polling shows that low earners’ votes really are still up for grabs. We have today written to all three political parties with a memorandum for the next government, showing what needs to be done to win over low earners. The party that speaks their language and focuses on enabling low earners to maintain their economic independence during the spending squeeze to come will be on the right track.”

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For further information please contact Cara Brown on 020 3372 2954 / 07957 536758 or cara.brown@resolutionfoundation.org or Mark Hanson on 07973 697947

All the Foundation’s research, reports, briefings, seminar notes are also available on our website.

Notes to editor:

1. At its broadest, we define the group as including all those with below-median income (from all sources) who are not dependent on state support. For the purposes of analysis, precise definitions depend on the data source being used: details are provided in Appendix 3. However, as a proxy, we consider the low earning group to comprise those households in income deciles 3, 4 and 5: that is, with equivalised[1] gross annual income between £13,500 and £25,800. Around 7.2 million households fall into this category in the UK, accounting for around 14.0 million adults.^[1] We define two other income groups in relation to low earners: households with above-median equivalised incomes (income deciles 6-10) are considered higher earners, while those with below £13,500 income (deciles 1 and 2) are considered benefit-dependent.
2. The polling was carried out for the Resolution Foundation by Populus. They interviewed a random sample of 1,015 adults aged 18+ by telephone between February 5^th and 7^th 2010 (voting intention question were asked of 1,502 adults) and a random sample of 1,007 adults aged 18+ by telephone between March 10^th and March 11th. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to be representative of all adults. We split the poll results via an income question as per below bands:

If there was a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

5-7^th February 2010

10-11 March 2010

3. See our open policy strategy memorandum to the next government on our website www.resolutionfoundation.org