Higher interest rates and a weaker economic outlook could force the Chancellor to choose between fresh policy-tightening measures on 26th March, or breaking the fiscal rules she set only last October, despite markets recovering after their January jitters, according to new research published today (Thursday) by the Resolution Foundation. The Foundation’s latest Macroeconomic Policy Outlook … Continued

The Chancellor added plenty of concrete to the Government’s nascent economic strategy, setting out plans to build new railway lines, road tunnels and runways. But she’ll face tougher decisions ahead in her quest for growth, particularly on new trade agreements with India and an updated relationship with the EU, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). … Continued

New ONS population projections should, if incorporated by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), improve the economic and fiscal outlook, and reduce borrowing by around £5 billion, the Resolution Foundation said today (Tuesday). The new projections have revised up expectations of the working-age population in 2029-30 by around 400,000. Based on previous scenarios from the … Continued

The latest data from the Wealth and Assets Survey (WAS) shows that British household wealth continued its upward march to hit a record high of £13.6 trillion in the two years to March 2022 (equivalent to £294,000 for the typical household), before a likely fall during the cost of living crisis – according to quickfire … Continued

Higher than expected spending meant that public sector borrowing in December was £3.2 billion above the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast, but cash measures show government requirements remain on track in the run to recent new year market jitters, the Resolution Foundation said today (Wednesday). The latest ONS data shows that the Government borrowed … Continued

The jobs market continued to cool in November, and there has now been no growth in payrolled jobs since May. But this cooling is yet to affect workers’ pay packets, who have enjoyed the best year for wage growth since 2005, the Resolution Foundation said today. The latest ONS data showed further evidence that the … Continued

The UK economy has returned to the weak growth that has characterised the past 15 years, as the mini-recession in the second half of 2023, and subsequent recovery in early 2024, has petered out, the Resolution Foundation said today. The economy grew by 0.1 per cent in November – with service sectors such as hotels, … Continued

CPI inflation dropped to 2.5 per cent in December 2024 – slightly lower than market expectations with indicators pointing to a welcome fall in underlying inflationary pressures – ending a run of bad news about the economy that has pushed up UK interest rates and increased pressure on the Chancellor. Underneath the headline rate, which … Continued

The Government’s proposed clampdown on the Right to Buy council homes will significantly blunt the impact of the policy. But it still faces a huge task in replenishing Britain’s affordable housing stock – with 400,000 more properties needed, at a cost of £50 billion, just to get back to 2010 levels of sub-market rent homes, … Continued

The sky-high cost of housing outweighs the relatively low cost of food to make Britain a particularly pricey country for poorer families – and widens household income gaps between poor British households and their German, Dutch and French counterparts – according to new Resolution Foundation research published today (Monday). The briefing note Whose price is … Continued

Britain is getting older, with the median age up by more than seven years since 1974. But this ageing is being driven by rural and coastal regions, as cities are getting younger, while London is a major exception to these trends, according to new research from the Resolution Foundation, published today (Wednesday). Ageing in the … Continued

Rising parental employment over the past two decades has switched the focus of Britain’s child poverty challenge from tackling workless households to supporting working families, with many kinds of working families now facing a greater risk of poverty than at the turn of the millennium, according to research published today (Monday) by the Resolution Foundation. … Continued

Youth home ownership rates have risen since the mid-2010s trough to leave younger millennials with greater home ownership rates at age 25 than older millennials had at that age. But with middle- and higher-income households gaining the most in recent years, the property divide between rich and poor young people is widening, according to new … Continued

CPI inflation increased to 2.6 per cent in November – higher than the Bank of England had expected – highlighting the challenge Britain faces in getting inflation back down to its target. The rise was driven by petrol prices, which fell by less over the past year in November than they did in October and … Continued

The UK’s jobs market continues to cool amidst a wider economic slowdown, but pay growth remains resilient, the Resolution Foundation said today. The Foundation’s analysis using the latest HMRC admin data suggest that the 16+ employment rate has fallen to 61.1 per cent, down from 61.7 per cent in early 2023. Further evidence of a … Continued

Tweaking the affordability criteria in the Government’s housing targets should help deliver more homes in areas with the most economic potential, as well as in areas with acute affordability challenges, since they are now more focused on the most productive travel to work areas, the Resolution Foundation said today (Thursday) of the Government’s response to … Continued

The employment gap between people living in the poorest and richest families in Britain has fallen by a third since the late 1990s. But workers in poorer households remain less likely to be satisfied with their job, and more likely to have an insecure employment contract, according to new research published today (Thursday) by the … Continued

The Chancellor will need to confront the good (allocating £100 billion of capital spending), the bad (finding £8 billion of further cuts to already stretched public services) and the ugly (a possible downgrade to the economic outlook that would require fresh tax rises, spending cuts or breaking the fiscal rules) in her upcoming Spending Review, … Continued

The Government’s Industrial Strategy Green Paper has a welcome focus on leveraging Britain’s economic strengths – as an exporter of services, a European leader for defence, and a strong university-led research base – and identifies a sensible set of clusters and growth industries. But to focus on these, the strategy will need to pass over … Continued

More than one in four children (27 per cent – 1.1 million in total) in poverty would not have been living below the poverty line in recent years (2022-23) were it not for high housing costs – a sign the Government must prioritise tackling housing unaffordability in its upcoming Child Poverty Strategy, says new Resolution … Continued

The Government’s new targets of raising Real Household Disposable Income (RHDI) and GDP per person over the Parliament at both a national and regional level is a welcome move that should focus minds across Whitehall about the need to raise household living standards. However, with the national RHDI milestone having been hit in every parliament … Continued

Agricultural Relief for Inheritance Tax (IHT) is estimated to cost the Exchequer £700 million this year (2024-25), delivering savings of more than £300,000 each to the approximately 1,700 estates who claim it (based on the latest available data in 2021-22), and demonstrating why the Government is right to scale it back, the Resolution Foundation said … Continued

Wealth gaps between young and older households widened in the decade running up to the pandemic, but rising interest rates have put this into reverse – with the average wealth gap between households in their 30s and 60s falling by £86,000 over the past five years, according to new Resolution Foundation research published today (Thursday). … Continued

Today’s ‘Get Britain Working’ White Paper should nudge Britain closer to the Government’s stretching 80 per cent employment target. But to really make a difference, the Government will need to properly resource its ‘youth guarantee’ and get benefit reforms right – a challenge that has been left for another day. The Foundation says setting Britain … Continued

Increasing transfers between generations – from housing young adults to financial gifts and inheritances, and caring for children, adults and elderly relatives – are having a profound, but unequally felt, impact on people’s economic prospects, according to new research from the Resolution Foundation and CPC-Connecting Generations published today (Thursday). The Intergenerational Audit 2024 – part … Continued