Publications Trump Tariff Turmoil The impact of higher US tariffs and the risk of a global recession 14 April 2025 by James Smith and Emily Fry and Greg Thwaites President Trump’s tariff announcements have taken a wrecking ball to the global system of international trade, pushing US tariff rates back to early 20th century levels. Following the suspension of… Continue Reading
Comment A tariff-fying start 4 February 2025 by Emily Fry and Greg Thwaites Over the last few days, President Trump has turned his campaign promises into reality, announcing major tariff hikes. But if the spotlight shifts to the UK, we should be cautious… Continue Reading
Publications EU-turn Resetting the UK-EU relationship through strategic dynamic alignment 9 October 2024 by Sophie Hale The Government has pledged to reset its relationship with the EU, promising growth dividends from stronger ties, regulatory cooperation and enhanced trade opportunities for UK firms. Despite this EU-friendly rhetoric,… Continue Reading
Events Rebooting Brexit Opportunities and challenges from resetting UK-EU trade relations Wednesday 9 October 2024 Britain has left the EU almost five years ago, and the economic damage – particularly when it comes to trade – is now clear. The new Government has put resetting… Continue Reading
Publications Life in the slow lane Assessing the UK’s economic and trade performance since 2010 9 June 2024 by Emily Fry and Simon Pittaway and Greg Thwaites This briefing note is the third output in a programme of outputs designed to put the upcoming UK general election in context, supported by the Nuffield Foundation. It looks at… Continue Reading
Comment Britain needs to acknowledge rather than deny its weaknesses in goods trade, and leverage its strength in services 13 May 2024 by Emily Fry The UK economy swiftly exited its recession in the first quarter of 2024 thanks in part to an improving trade balance. This is good news – but an improving trade… Continue Reading
Comment Britain’s post-Brexit trade patterns are finally emerging in the data 28 February 2024 by Emily Fry The impact of Brexit on trade in the first two years after leaving the EU was complicated by global events: first the pandemic, and then the spike in energy prices.… Continue Reading
Publications Decent exposure An overview of how Britain’s exposure to trade has changed 19 February 2024 by Sophie Hale In this briefing note we assess how the exposure to international trade has changed over the past two decades. First, we consider the role that declining manufacturing employment has played… Continue Reading
