Monetary policy in the face of large shocks

Professor Silvana Tenreyro has been an External Member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) since July 2017. In her final speech as an MPC member, she will look back on some of the key events during her tenure. In a space of less than three years, the UK economy has been subject to two once-in-a-generation shocks, the pandemic with its aftereffects and the large increase in energy prices stemming from the war in Ukraine, which have increased inflation well above its 2 per cent target.

She will discuss the UK’s inflation targeting framework, and what policymakers can do to ensure its credibility in the face of such large inflationary shocks. The speech will focus on different aspects of policymaking and credibility: including the role of inflation expectations; central bank models and forecasts; and policy communications.

Silvana will also discuss where her views have evolved over her six years on the MPC. She will touch on differentiating between temporary and persistent influences on inflation; on communicating uncertainty around forecasts; and on giving guidance about future policy actions.

The Resolution Foundation and Society for Professional Economists are co-hosting an event for Professor Silvana Tenreyro’s valedictory speech. The event will be open for people to physically attend, alongside being broadcast via YouTube and the Resolution Foundation website. Viewers will be able to submit questions to the panel before and during the event via Slido.